Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:09 pm

Category 13 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:28 pm
If she wins enough games for contestants in the queue to pick up on her frugal wagering habits (2 for 2 at absolute minimum), she risks getting shot down by a small wager from a non-lock leader.
If you think about it, though, any strategy if used often enough can be picked up on by contestants in the queue...
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Anachronism » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:15 pm

Category 13 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:28 pm
I couldn't bring myself to call it a savvy wager, as much as it was penny wise & dollar foolish. I think it could be called a savant wager.

If she wins enough games for contestants in the queue to pick up on her frugal wagering habits (2 for 2 at absolute minimum), she risks getting shot down by a small wager from a non-lock leader.
As someone who does a lot of work programming AI, I'm asked why I'm not more precise in programming responses to behavior. The answer is that a good AI won't allow you to game the system by studying its behavior. If Lisa kept it up a while and found herself in a similar position, a smart player would mix it up and bet big. Of course, someone who's consistently second going into FJ probably won't have that many chances to strategize.

I'm surprised how many customers of mine think an AI with a significant random component is buggy. Game theory teaches us that knowledge completely breaks down common game types.

There are mistakes in betting (like a 1st who bets so much more than he/she needs to cover 2nd that 3rd is unnecessarily given a chance to win), but I think those are less common than some would have us believe. Especially since we usually don't know how a contestant feels about the FJ category.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:32 pm

Pine tar and can pull out Benjamin Britten (who I'd say is the harder of the two alliterative Brits, though mostly because I can never remember him)? GO LISA!

Also, if someone can find the crevice I pulled Actium out of, I'd be most thankful.
Last edited by Volante on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:35 pm

39 R
DD: 2/3 (Hyde Park, Tehran)
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Star Trek, Edward Elgar, Ponder

Ran Geek Confusion and Object of My Possession. 4/4 in Composers.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:37 pm

Volante wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:32 pm
Pine tar and can pull out Benjamin Britten (who I'd say is the harder of the two alliterative Brits, though mostly because I can never remember him)? GO LISA!

Also, if someone can find the crevice I pulled Actium out of, I'd be most thankful.
Even harder alliteration would be 16th Century British Composer Thomas Tallis.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:58 pm

LucarioSnooperVixey wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:37 pm
Volante wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:32 pm
Pine tar and can pull out Benjamin Britten (who I'd say is the harder of the two alliterative Brits, though mostly because I can never remember him)? GO LISA!

Also, if someone can find the crevice I pulled Actium out of, I'd be most thankful.
Even harder alliteration would be 16th Century British Composer Thomas Tallis.
I keep forgetting he's a person...thank you Ralph Vaughn Williams' Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis...

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:00 pm

OntarioQuizzer wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm
I'm sure that this is going to be a hot take with some of you, but I think that the game overall will be improved with a result like this, as opposed to a game where Lisa had just gone all-in.

If Lisa just goes all-in here, nobody blinks an eye.

But winning by $1? That might be enough to get more people interested in learning about wagering strategy, and the game will be better in the future for it.
I think all three players wagered very well today. Lisa needs to wager less than 6200, so all-in for her is not alright. (That keeps her above a zero wager by AJ.) With appropriate wagering by John (a pretty good assumption for the leader), AJ can't win. The best he can do is wager for 2nd place. He needs to wager at least 6200 (again, getting ahead of a 0 wager by Lisa) AND get it right while she misses. That's his only route to 2nd place. All in would be fine for AJ as well.
--Peter

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm

R: 23, W: 1, costing 800
Coryat: 17,000
FJ: :(
DD: 0/3
LT: Star Trek, North Korea

Timings:
3:22 + 2:36 = 5:58
6:44
1:32

J! seemed very short today. I would like to have seen the missed clues - had a better shot at them then getting any plays right.

Got stumped in the plays and with Mr. Damon. Missed the run in baseball because I don't recognize Jose by sight. I surprised myself with 4/5 in the Asian books, coming strictly on the TOMs.

Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.

I'll join TPH in utter uselessness for FJ. The best I could do was tie Neptune to a naval battle. I didn't even make a guess. Probably should have at least written down an island or port city around the Med. Cyprus. Alexandria.
--Peter

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm

Peter the accountant wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm
Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.
Edward Elgar, of Pomp & Circumstance fame.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:54 pm

Volante wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm
Peter the accountant wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm
Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.
Edward Elgar, of Pomp & Circumstance fame.
Thank you! I'm quite familiar with P&C. Never paid attention to the composer.
--Peter

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Category 13 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:55 pm

Peter the accountant wrote: I think all three players wagered very well today. Lisa needs to wager less than 6200, so all-in for her is not alright. (That keeps her above a zero wager by AJ.)
She should be more concerned about a zero wager from John. This situation does not warrent concern for the extra $1000 since she had to get it correct to have a chance at winning the game. A 6199 wager (just as 2200) on a sole get doesn't do her any good if John does the unexpected.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:01 am

Category 13 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:55 pm
Peter the accountant wrote: I think all three players wagered very well today. Lisa needs to wager less than 6200, so all-in for her is not alright. (That keeps her above a zero wager by AJ.)
She should be more concerned about a zero wager from John. This situation does not warrent concern for the extra $1000 since she had to get it correct to have a chance at winning the game. A 6199 wager (just as 2200) on a sole get doesn't do her any good if John does the unexpected.
"Well, why NOT hit on 20? That next card could be an ace!"

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by OrangeSAM » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:16 am

MarkBarrett wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:40 pm
...
John was introduced as a retired English teacher so that gets him a little more leeway on the FJ! clue miss than if he taught history....
Three words that could have led an English teacher to the Battle of Actium: Antony and Cleopatra.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Category 13 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:18 am

Volante wrote:
Category 13 wrote:
Peter the accountant wrote: I think all three players wagered very well today. Lisa needs to wager less than 6200, so all-in for her is not alright. (That keeps her above a zero wager by AJ.)
She should be more concerned about a zero wager from John. This situation does not warrent concern for the extra $1000 since she had to get it correct to have a chance at winning the game. A 6199 wager (just as 2200) on a sole get doesn't do her any good if John does the unexpected.
"Well, why NOT hit on 20? That next card could be an ace!"
Totally irrelevant comparison.
Besides, she also has to get it correct to shut out AJ for second place, so if she wants to look over her shoulder, maybe she shouldn't count him betting zero either.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:25 am

Volante wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:32 pm
Pine tar and can pull out Benjamin Britten (who I'd say is the harder of the two alliterative Brits, though mostly because I can never remember him)?
I think the 19th century hint was intended to steer us away from Britten and toward Elgar.

edit: or maybe I'm thinking of the clue mentioned by harrumph, below. After Googling Elgar it seems he lived in both the 19th and 20th centuries.
Last edited by This Is Kirk! on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:47 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by harrumph » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 am

If I had been on the show, for the clue that read

"In the 19th century composers like Mendelssohn & Weber were among the first to do this standing up"

I could not have resisted responding with "peeing".

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:45 am

harrumph wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 am
I could not have resisted responding with "peeing".
Neither could Barstool, apparently.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Johnblue » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:45 am

Anyway, great game to watch. Easy FJ for me only because that’s the only one I know. That was a weird story that Lisa told. I’m on the side of those who think she should’ve bet enough to cover a zero bet by John but I really don’t care that much.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dinghammer » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:10 am

Bob78164 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:17 pm
(and also hedge against the possibility that the leader underwagers). --Bob
That's exactly what I was thinking. I know the leader doesn't always underwager, but surely it's common enough that a seemingly perfect wager can still be incredibly risky. What if he just bet $4000?

Anyway, this FJ was really simple. I instantly knew it had to be a naval battle and that I didn't know any naval Roman battles.

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:31 am

Peter the accountant wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:00 pm
I think all three players wagered very well today. Lisa needs to wager less than 6200, so all-in for her is not alright.
Where are you getting any of this from? Betting when you're 2nd being crushed by 1st is one of the simplest scenarios in FJ. You bet everything, since the only case where you win is if 1st gets it wrong, anyways.

By not betting everything, Lisa cost herself a cool $12,000. That's the direct opposite of wagering "very well". I like her a lot, but if I was in her shoes, I would have nightmares for the next decade about that decision.

Speaking of nightmares, John wouldn't even have had to worry about FJ if he had bet properly on his DDs. What especially astounds me is that in both categories, and especially the second one that dealt with American history, he was obviously very strong at the subject. And yet, he still bet a small, "safe" amount. Well, those "safe" bets allowed Lisa to catch him.

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