Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AndyTheQuizzer »

dinghammer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:10 am
Bob78164 wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:17 pm (and also hedge against the possibility that the leader underwagers). --Bob
That's exactly what I was thinking. I know the leader doesn't always underwager, but surely it's common enough that a seemingly perfect wager can still be incredibly risky. What if he just bet $4000?

Anyway, this FJ was really simple. I instantly knew it had to be a naval battle and that I didn't know any naval Roman battles.
As Volante said:

"Well, why NOT hit on 20? That next card could be an ace!"
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AndyTheQuizzer »

IronNeck wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:31 am By not betting everything, Lisa cost herself a cool $12,000. That's the direct opposite of wagering "very well". I like her a lot, but if I was in her shoes, I would have nightmares for the next decade about that decision.
And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm I'm sure that this is going to be a hot take with some of you, but I think that the game overall will be improved with a result like this, as opposed to a game where Lisa had just gone all-in.

If Lisa just goes all-in here, nobody blinks an eye.

But winning by $1? That might be enough to get more people interested in learning about wagering strategy, and the game will be better in the future for it.
I hope so. I always try to practice wagering strategy by calculating (during the last commercial break) what I think all three should wager. I had Lisa down for $2,200, and I was so proud of both of us when she did exactly that. Good game, girl! (And you ARE lucky to be there, just not the way Alex was joking. And we're lucky as well to be watching you!)
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy »

Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:54 pm
Volante wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm
Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.
Edward Elgar, of Pomp & Circumstance fame.
Thank you! I'm quite familiar with P&C. Never paid attention to the composer.
And yet you probably heard his music at your graduation. One of the P & C Marches has come to be commonly known as "The Commencement March" because that's the only occasion most people hear it.

Final Q. I am really curious about the look on Lisa's face when she realized she had won. Not quite a Zerg-cam moment, and certainly not the usual glee of "I won!" Seemed as if she was trying to figure out what happened. ????
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante »

John Boy wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:11 am
Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:54 pm
Volante wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm
Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.
Edward Elgar, of Pomp & Circumstance fame.
Thank you! I'm quite familiar with P&C. Never paid attention to the composer.
And yet you probably heard his music at your graduation. One of the P & C Marches has come to be commonly known as "The Commencement March" because that's the only occasion most people hear it.
Alternatively, if you watched Randy Savage in the WWF.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant »

John Boy wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:11 am
Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:54 pm
Volante wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:37 pm
Peter the accountant wrote: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 pm Can anyone clarify the composer in the 2000 box? It sounded like "Algar" to me, which isn't turning up anything in my searching.
Edward Elgar, of Pomp & Circumstance fame.
Thank you! I'm quite familiar with P&C. Never paid attention to the composer.
And yet you probably heard his music at your graduation.
Heard it? I was in band in high school. Had to play it over and over (and over and over and ...) for three years. Do you know how long it takes about 1000 graduates to walk single file into a football stadium? :)
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 amAnd we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
I don't wonder in the least.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by zerobandwidth »

John Boy wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:11 am Final Q. I am really curious about the look on Lisa's face when she realized she had won. Not quite a Zerg-cam moment, and certainly not the usual glee of "I won!" Seemed as if she was trying to figure out what happened. ????
Her reaction to winning both days so far seems to be stunned disbelief, which was understandable in this match, but less so in her first match where she had a lock going into FJ.

I think I would have had at least a moment of that before I was overcome with elated weeping. But that's just hypothetical. (Womp, womp.)
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Elijah Baley »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am
IronNeck wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:31 am By not betting everything, Lisa cost herself a cool $12,000. That's the direct opposite of wagering "very well". I like her a lot, but if I was in her shoes, I would have nightmares for the next decade about that decision.
And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
There's a big difference between debating someone's wagering strategy and making unwarranted personal comments about someone for the way they look or act, for example. If people can't handle the former, I don't know if that's our problem. Are we really supposed to pretend that every wager is brilliant and couldn't have been any better?? Ultimately, the basic rule of thumb is probably that folks should comment as they would do so in person and the comment you highlighted seems to fall well within the parameter.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

Lisa's story with Alex was the last topic on ESPN's ¿Highly Questionable? with Katie Nolan & Papi giving a "Sí" and Dan was a "No." Papi defended Lisa saying Trebek took a cheap shot and noting that Lisa is the champ, the real deal.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by dinghammer »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am As Volante said:

"Well, why NOT hit on 20? That next card could be an ace!"
Cool.

I'm guessing that's supposed to mean the leader makes a suboptimal wager about as often as the next card would be an ace, and that guarding against such a wager would have caused Lisa to lose somehow. Great analogy, guys.

Yeah, I can see why people go to Reddit.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am

And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
I never go there myself ... is it really free of any negative comments like that?
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AndyTheQuizzer »

Elijah Baley wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:20 pm There's a big difference between debating someone's wagering strategy and making unwarranted personal comments about someone for the way they look or act, for example. If people can't handle the former, I don't know if that's our problem. Are we really supposed to pretend that every wager is brilliant and couldn't have been any better?? Ultimately, the basic rule of thumb is probably that folks should comment as they would do so in person and the comment you highlighted seems to fall well within the parameter.
I think that some of us could do to remember that contestants are human and we should at least have some sort of consideration for their feelings, and that making comments like "I'd have nightmares" might come across as more callous than they realize.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant »

alietr wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:41 pm
OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am

And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
I never go there myself ... is it really free of any negative comments like that?
Nope.

But you do get the chance to vote comments up or down, which is a feedback or screening mechanism that is not available here.

(I'm not advocating for or against a similar mechanism here - just pointing out the fairly obvious difference.)
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by squarekara »

alietr wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:41 pm
OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am

And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
I never go there myself ... is it really free of any negative comments like that?
I personally encountered--shall we say?--straight up hate on Reddit. When I clapped back to assert my "presence," the little dears pm'ed me to "shut up." What a world, what a world. . . The level of vitriol on display over there was a big turn off. I'm all for keepin' it classy in this forum, but, in a bar fight or a pub quiz, I'll back the Boardie over the Redditor every time.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by harrumph »

MarkBarrett wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:14 pm Lisa's story with Alex was the last topic on ESPN's ¿Highly Questionable? with Katie Nolan & Papi giving a "Sí" and Dan was a "No." Papi defended Lisa saying Trebek took a cheap shot and noting that Lisa is the champ, the real deal.
Papi would make a quite a J! contestant with his mispronunciations and haphazard knowledge of names.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

OntarioQuizzer wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 am
IronNeck wrote: Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:31 am By not betting everything, Lisa cost herself a cool $12,000. That's the direct opposite of wagering "very well". I like her a lot, but if I was in her shoes, I would have nightmares for the next decade about that decision.
And we wonder why 90% of the contestants go over to Reddit to post these days...
Because it's a vastly larger, more well-known website than this is?

Incidentally, as someone who posts a lot on Reddit (albeit not about Jeopardy), my best-received posts there are (including a massively popular topic I once started) also the most critical and contentious. Far moreso than anything I write here. So I don't know what you imagine Reddit to be, but rest assured people would note sub-optimal wagering there, too.
Elijah Baley wrote: There's a big difference between debating someone's wagering strategy and making unwarranted personal comments about someone for the way they look or act, for example. If people can't handle the former, I don't know if that's our problem. Are we really supposed to pretend that every wager is brilliant and couldn't have been any better?? Ultimately, the basic rule of thumb is probably that folks should comment as they would do so in person and the comment you highlighted seems to fall well within the parameter.
Indeed. It's one thing to be rude about a contestant on a personal level, which literally no one here is, and it's another to comment about their play. Somehow, high school and college athletes can handle regular folks saying they had a bad game, but grown adults can't handle someone saying they could have made a better wager?

That's insulting and demeaning to the Jeopardy contestants. They're not children who can only take compliments.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Ironhorse »

What Kara mentioned is really the tip of the iceberg. Reddit as a whole has a massive problem with sexism (and I know that's a broad statement for such a broad website, but it's very much a thing there).
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Anachronism »

It's more that reddit is everything-ism. Whatever anyone can find to bully/wear down/whatever someone else is fair game. There's a ton of good stuff there, but you have to work to find it and the larger subreddits are insufferable.

I've been toying with a tool for analyzing FJ wagers. Analysis depends on two factors that are very hard to pin down. First is the value of being comfortable with an FJ category. We don't have the ability to analyze that.

Second is the value of winning a game over the money you take home for first place. From a pure monetary perspective, that can be pinned down. I'd spit-ball that it's at least $10k on its own.

I've been looking at this (Tuesday's) game with this in mind. When you value winning - or the opportunity to play tomorrow - at $13k, which seems to be a fair financial estimate of the opportunity alone, then you should really bet what you have. So you take a scenario like John's, and you bet the entire $22,400 rather than the cover bet of $6,001. Because that $18,399 you've left on the table for a decent shot at increasing your odds of coming back tomorrow is more than the value of coming back. Similarly, Lisa's bet should have been all-in as well.

But we don't go on Jeopardy for maximizing money alone. There's some King of the Mountain in us, and a tiny chance at reaching the Tournament of Champions or even just being able to say you were a champion at all - screw the money - has a lot of value.

So I ran the tool assigning winning a value of $100k. And that makes John's bet of $6,001 optimal. A.J. should have gone all in. But what about Lisa? I see a small peak at $1,801, to cover A.J., and then a gradual decline until about $4,500 (that's the worst amount), then creeping up again and passing $1,801 at about $9,090 and gradually rising to its peak at all-in.

Let's say, though, that Lisa knows John will bet $6,001 and figures A.J. could go all-in. What then? Obviously, reasonable bets start at $2,200, but the slope upward is small and steady all the way to all-in.

As long as John's in that position where missing a cover bet still gives him a lose/lose victory, I just don't see the rationale for anything other than all-in from the other players. The game theory becomes a lot more interesting when it's closer and the cover bet opens the leader up to a lose/lose loss on a zero bet from number 2.

In the end I don't like her $2,200 bet, but it wasn't hugely harmful. Assigning a value of $100k for returning, all-in is only about $3k better on average than $2,200 - and $2,200 is more than $28k better than $2,100.
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Re: Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by cinemaniax7 »

Whether or not Lisa's wager was "savvy," it's always good to see a J! player put real thought into his or her wager, not to mention demonstrate some decent math skills.
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