Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:30 pm

bigblue999 wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Easy FJ! clue. I got it in a heartbeat.

I don’t understand why in a tie after DJ! contestants bet all but $1 to avoid the tiebreaker clue. Kristen was lucky that Jack got it wrong.
Uh, ya think??!!

I wonder how she would have felt explaining to herself and her people that she totaled $36 grand in her only J! appearance and lost by a buck but didn't have to. Man, oh man.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AFRET CMS » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm

MattKnowles wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:45 pm
I don't think it's possible to come up with a good final jeopardy bet in this situation unless you have more info about what your competitor is going to do.

If the obvious answer is "wager everything" that quickly falls apart because a person wagering 0 has better odds than a person wagering everything. The typical Jeopardy! contestant gets FJ correct 50% of the time[emphasis added to quote]. If you bet 0 and your opponent bets everything you have a 50% chance to win. Alternatively if you and your opponent bet everything then you have a 37.5% chance to win. There is a 25% chance that both players will miss and third place will win and the remaining 75% chance to win is split between the two leaders.

Of course the answer could still be "wager everything" because there is definitely a chance your opponent will not wager everything which also gives you a 50% chance to win.

If you wager $0 and your opponent also wagers $0 your odds of winning are 50%.

Your ideal wager changes drastically depending on whether or not your competitor will wager everything. I'm going to say that the ideal wager is $0 but if you have some way of knowing your opponent will not bet everything then your ideal wager is to bet everything.
I have to disagree with one statement you made above (highlighted). I think the FJ rate is significantly higher than 50%. I went to the archive and looked at three random weeks with all three contestants playing FJ in each game of the week. The contestants in those weeks went 9/15, 12/15, and 11/15. If those weeks are not statistical anomalies, then it would be a safer bet to assume your opponent has about a two out of three chance of a correct answer and wager accordingly.

Frankly, if I were tied going into FJ, in most categories I'd rather bet on myself than bet against another player, and wager it all. Category might play into that, though -- if it's one of my weak categories (have they ever had an FJ on hip-hop "music"?) then I'd be tempted to wager zero.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by xxaaaxx » Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm

AFRET CMS wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
MattKnowles wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:45 pm
**snip**
The typical Jeopardy! contestant gets FJ correct 50% of the time[emphasis added to quote].
I have to disagree with one statement you made above (highlighted). I think the FJ rate is significantly higher than 50%. I went to the archive and looked at three random weeks with all three contestants playing FJ in each game of the week. The contestants in those weeks went 9/15, 12/15, and 11/15. If those weeks are not statistical anomalies, then it would be a safer bet to assume your opponent has about a two out of three chance of a correct answer and wager accordingly.
Current season FJ get rate: 49.3%
Season 33 get rate: 45.2%
Season 32 get rate: 50.6%
Season 31 get rate: 45.19%
Season 30 get rate: 45.49%

A bit higher for the leader going into FJ, but not by much. FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.

That having been said, I'd still bet it all if it were me.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by CasketRomance » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:12 pm

AFRET CMS wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
MattKnowles wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:45 pm
I don't think it's possible to come up with a good final jeopardy bet in this situation unless you have more info about what your competitor is going to do.

If the obvious answer is "wager everything" that quickly falls apart because a person wagering 0 has better odds than a person wagering everything. The typical Jeopardy! contestant gets FJ correct 50% of the time[emphasis added to quote]. If you bet 0 and your opponent bets everything you have a 50% chance to win. Alternatively if you and your opponent bet everything then you have a 37.5% chance to win. There is a 25% chance that both players will miss and third place will win and the remaining 75% chance to win is split between the two leaders.

Of course the answer could still be "wager everything" because there is definitely a chance your opponent will not wager everything which also gives you a 50% chance to win.

If you wager $0 and your opponent also wagers $0 your odds of winning are 50%.

Your ideal wager changes drastically depending on whether or not your competitor will wager everything. I'm going to say that the ideal wager is $0 but if you have some way of knowing your opponent will not bet everything then your ideal wager is to bet everything.
I have to disagree with one statement you made above (highlighted). I think the FJ rate is significantly higher than 50%. I went to the archive and looked at three random weeks with all three contestants playing FJ in each game of the week. The contestants in those weeks went 9/15, 12/15, and 11/15. If those weeks are not statistical anomalies, then it would be a safer bet to assume your opponent has about a two out of three chance of a correct answer and wager accordingly.

Frankly, if I were tied going into FJ, in most categories I'd rather bet on myself than bet against another player, and wager it all. Category might play into that, though -- if it's one of my weak categories (have they ever had an FJ on hip-hop "music"?) then I'd be tempted to wager zero.
if they ever had or were to have that as a final jeopardy category, it would probably be remedial hip hop and such a softball clue, so wagering 0 would be -EV

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AFRET CMS » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:47 pm

xxaaaxx wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm
AFRET CMS wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm
MattKnowles wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:45 pm
**snip**
The typical Jeopardy! contestant gets FJ correct 50% of the time[emphasis added to quote].
I have to disagree with one statement you made above (highlighted). I think the FJ rate is significantly higher than 50%. I went to the archive and looked at three random weeks with all three contestants playing FJ in each game of the week. The contestants in those weeks went 9/15, 12/15, and 11/15. If those weeks are not statistical anomalies, then it would be a safer bet to assume your opponent has about a two out of three chance of a correct answer and wager accordingly.
Current season FJ get rate: 49.3%
Season 33 get rate: 45.2%
Season 32 get rate: 50.6%
Season 31 get rate: 45.19%
Season 30 get rate: 45.49%

A bit higher for the leader going into FJ, but not by much. FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.

That having been said, I'd still bet it all if it were me.
Thanks much for the research -- I don't know what weeks I hit in the archive (just randomly picked a day on the screen list and looked at the five FJs that week), but those weeks may have indeed been statistical anomalies.

Based on the weekly FJ poll, I think your statement about the get rate for boardies possibly being higher is valid. Maybe TPTB should add a little weight to the selection process accordingly!
I'm not the defending Jeopardy! champion. But I have played one on TV.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AFRET CMS » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:50 pm

CasketRomance wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:12 pm
AFRET CMS wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm

Frankly, if I were tied going into FJ, in most categories I'd rather bet on myself than bet against another player, and wager it all. Category might play into that, though -- if it's one of my weak categories (have they ever had an FJ on hip-hop "music"?) then I'd be tempted to wager zero.
if they ever had or were to have that as a final jeopardy category, it would probably be remedial hip hop and such a softball clue, so wagering 0 would be -EV
"Remedial hip-hop." Interesting concept. I think there may be a Weird Al song in there somewhere.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bartleby » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:21 pm

xxaaaxx wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm
FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.
I wonder if a mod could pull the data from the weekly polls to see what the board averages. I looked over my own results for the first 13 weeks of this year and had 48 correct out of 65 clues (I excluded the extra tie-breaker question from the week of 2/26) for an average get rate of 73.8% or 3.69 correct per week.
I would prefer not to.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jeff6286 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:28 pm

Bartleby wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:21 pm
xxaaaxx wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm
FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.
I wonder if a mod could pull the data from the weekly polls to see what the board averages. I looked over my own results for the first 13 weeks of this year and had 48 correct out of 65 clues (I excluded the extra tie-breaker question from the week of 2/26) for an average get rate of 73.8% or 3.69 correct per week.

OrangeSAM was compiling stats on the weekly polls, will see how many I can find. Here's Season 31 and 30:
OrangeSAM wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:49 pm
Overall success rate on FJ!s: 18895 out of 30820 (61.31%) That's 1.3% better than season 30.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by cheezguyty » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:56 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:28 pm
Bartleby wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:21 pm
xxaaaxx wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm
FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.
I wonder if a mod could pull the data from the weekly polls to see what the board averages. I looked over my own results for the first 13 weeks of this year and had 48 correct out of 65 clues (I excluded the extra tie-breaker question from the week of 2/26) for an average get rate of 73.8% or 3.69 correct per week.

OrangeSAM was compiling stats on the weekly polls, will see how many I can find. Here's Season 31 and 30:
OrangeSAM wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:49 pm
Overall success rate on FJ!s: 18895 out of 30820 (61.31%) That's 1.3% better than season 30.
Season 32: 17288 out of 28090 (61.55%)
Season 33: 18089 out of 28485 (63.50%)


For regular games only:

Season 32: 14573 out of 23760 (61.33%)
Season 33: 15408 out of 24830 (62.05%)

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:35 pm

lisa0012 wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:43 am
When i see the word "Dahomey" i sing "Namibia", then finish the Animaniacs Nations of the World song.
Did you get a chance to see Animaniacs Live in Arlington a few months back? It was a ton of fun.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by twelvefootboy » Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:41 pm

John Boy wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:30 pm
bigblue999 wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Easy FJ! clue. I got it in a heartbeat.

I don’t understand why in a tie after DJ! contestants bet all but $1 to avoid the tiebreaker clue. Kristen was lucky that Jack got it wrong.
Uh, ya think??!!

I wonder how she would have felt explaining to herself and her people that she totaled $36 grand in her only J! appearance and lost by a buck but didn't have to. Man, oh man.
I'm late arriving for this game, but I don't think anybody's mentioned the ONE scenario where the buck is a crafty move. If everybody is flat busted, nobody stays and they bring three new gladiators I think. Of course third should just sit tight anyway because triple stumpers are more probable than sole solves from third.

I got hung up on the Ponderosa because of the TV TOM and assumed it would be a western (that was the dominant genre) and couldn't come up with Rifleman, or Matt Dillon, etc.. After pausing the playback, twelvefootgirl came up with the Fugitive. It's not the type of movie that Hollywood generally cares about (because it was good ;)) and I didn't know the cast. I think most boardies got it by knowing Tommy Lee's CV over the 1963 TV show.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:01 am

twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:41 pm
John Boy wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:30 pm
bigblue999 wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Easy FJ! clue. I got it in a heartbeat.

I don’t understand why in a tie after DJ! contestants bet all but $1 to avoid the tiebreaker clue. Kristen was lucky that Jack got it wrong.
Uh, ya think??!!

I wonder how she would have felt explaining to herself and her people that she totaled $36 grand in her only J! appearance and lost by a buck but didn't have to. Man, oh man.
I'm late arriving for this game, but I don't think anybody's mentioned the ONE scenario where the buck is a crafty move. If everybody is flat busted, nobody stays and they bring three new gladiators I think. Of course third should just sit tight anyway because triple stumpers are more probable than sole solves from third.
This "one scenario" doesn't apply, because in that case, she should have bet $0-$5399. That way, instead of hoping that fellow 1st and 3rd get it wrong, she only needs 1st to get wrong. She still loses to fellow 1st getting it correct in either scenario.

Ergo, a bet of $0-$5399 strictly dominates (a game theoretic term) a bet of $18,199 under any reasonable set of assumptions.
twelfvefootboy wrote: It's not the type of movie that Hollywood generally cares about (because it was good ;))
What do you mean?

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by OrangeSAM » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:43 pm

cheezguyty wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:56 pm
jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:28 pm
Bartleby wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:21 pm
xxaaaxx wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:24 pm
FJ get rate might be higher for us on this board, but for contestants, 50/50 sounds about right.
I wonder if a mod could pull the data from the weekly polls to see what the board averages. I looked over my own results for the first 13 weeks of this year and had 48 correct out of 65 clues (I excluded the extra tie-breaker question from the week of 2/26) for an average get rate of 73.8% or 3.69 correct per week.

OrangeSAM was compiling stats on the weekly polls, will see how many I can find. Here's Season 31 and 30:
OrangeSAM wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:49 pm
Overall success rate on FJ!s: 18895 out of 30820 (61.31%) That's 1.3% better than season 30.
Season 32: 17288 out of 28090 (61.55%)
Season 33: 18089 out of 28485 (63.50%)


For regular games only:

Season 32: 14573 out of 23760 (61.33%)
Season 33: 15408 out of 24830 (62.05%)
I am a little surprised and slighty flattered that folks still remember this. The reason I had to stop is that I have not been working the past 2 years, never sent the db home, and was dealing with illness and death in the family.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:53 pm

R: 34, W: 2, costing 1600
Coryat: 28,600
FJ: :(
DD: 2/3
LT: knock

A better performance for me today, somewhat higher than my average. Didn't get stumped in any categories.

I've seen The Fugitive, but had no recollection of what decade it came out. The TV info likely hurt me, since I didn't know of the Fugitive as a TV show. Trying to backtrack early 60s TV that ended up as a movie, I went with Bewitched. Figured it wasn't going to be right, but putting something down is better than a blank slate.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Peter the accountant » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:56 pm

I'd hazard a guess that boardie hit rates on FJ would fall slightly when asked on a TV stage with bright, hot lights and the pressure of the moment. Dropping 10% wouldn't be a crazy guess as to the effect of being on stage.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by twelvefootboy » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:16 am

IronNeck wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:01 am
twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:41 pm
twelfvefootboy wrote: It's not the type of movie that Hollywood generally cares about (because it was good ;))
What do you mean?
Just a poor job of self-deprecation for my lack of appreciation of the cinema arts. Me likes movies with no sad parts or violence. Explosions are always nice.
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Ironhorse » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:24 am

I have seen The Fugitive, but probably not since I was 10 years old. At that age I had no idea who Tommy Lee Jones was.
Never been on J!, but once won a knockoff version that aired on local access TV.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck » Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:01 am

Peter the accountant wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:56 pm
I'd hazard a guess that boardie hit rates on FJ would fall slightly when asked on a TV stage with bright, hot lights and the pressure of the moment. Dropping 10% wouldn't be a crazy guess as to the effect of being on stage.
10% would actually be an enormous drop in get rate, heh, not a slight one. I do agree that FJ get rates would fall if people were on the show, but mainly because writing the answer down would eat up a certain amount of time and give one less opportunity to think.

A lot of people make claims about the deleterious effect of "the lights", but that is completely unprovable. Personally, when I was on a televised quiz show, I played at exactly the same level I normally do. Other people "rise to the occasion" and play their best when it matters most. We've heard former contestants on Jeopardy mention they got certain clues watching at home they missed on the show, but some were also honest enough to note there were those they got on the show they missed at home.

It's partially an individual effect (some are negatively impacted, others are positively impacted, others aren't impacted at all), but is impossible to show either way.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:51 am

Peter the accountant wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:56 pm
I'd hazard a guess that boardie hit rates on FJ would fall slightly when asked on a TV stage with bright, hot lights and the pressure of the moment. Dropping 10% wouldn't be a crazy guess as to the effect of being on stage.
At least 10%. There's the pressure element and also that you have to get your response written down legibly in 30 seconds. Is everyone here actually writing their response down and making sure they've got it down before the time is up? I suspect not.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by AFRET CMS » Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:05 pm

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:51 am
Peter the accountant wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:56 pm
I'd hazard a guess that boardie hit rates on FJ would fall slightly when asked on a TV stage with bright, hot lights and the pressure of the moment. Dropping 10% wouldn't be a crazy guess as to the effect of being on stage.
At least 10%. There's the pressure element and also that you have to get your response written down legibly in 30 seconds. Is everyone here actually writing their response down and making sure they've got it down before the time is up? I suspect not.
IronNeck made a valid point when he said
IronNeck wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:01 am
We've heard former contestants on Jeopardy mention they got certain clues watching at home they missed on the show, but some were also honest enough to note there were those they got on the show they missed at home.
It does cut both ways -- there's a lot of adrenaline pumping when you hear Johnny Gilbert say your name. I remember being hyper-focused on the board and have no memory at all of an audience even being present. When we had the watch party several months after the taping, there were several times I thought "How did I answer that correctly then, when I don't know the answer now?" In particular, during my second FJ, it seemed like a loooong thought process working through the TOM to reason out the conclusion, but in watching the show you could see "the light go on" at the end of the first verse of think music when I started scribbling. It subjectively felt like about a minute and a half, but but it was actually about 12-15 seconds.

At the same time, there were a couple of instances when my brain was shouting "Red! Red! Red!" when I rang in, only to hear SOMEONE'S mouth blurt "What is Green?" when I was called upon. Funny things happen, so I've become much less surprised when an otherwise "mediocre" contestant does something brilliant -- or when a brilliant contestant does something that seems really silly. I think stress may cause the thought process to accelerate sometimes. And to slow down sometimes. And sometimes, those "sometimes" may be within a span of just a couple of minutes.
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