Was I the only one thrown off the You Only Live Twice
Triple Stumper by the awful wording on the question? I thought they were asking for the post-Fleming Bond spin-off, not the original Fleming Bond that inspired it. David shot himself in the foot with countless negs, many of them wild guesses. He seemed overexcited up there, even though it was his second game.
Catherine looks like a solid champion.
tlazareth wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:45 pm
Hi J-Boarders. This is my first time posting (long time lurker), but I felt compelled to defend my honour (such as it is)! Here is how it went. In the few minutes that I had to come up with my wager, I actually tried to run through all possible scenarios in my mind (while attempting to do the math and not become distracted by Alex taking questions from the audience).
Out of curiosity, why did you wait until right before FJ, with your adrenaline high and blood pumping, to consider these scenarios? Why didn't you run through all these potential scenarios (of which there aren't that many) weeks or months before you were on your show, in the comforts of your own home?
tlazareth wrote:Given the category, I figured that it would either be something obvious that we would all get right (in which case, if Catherine bet in the usual way, she would beat me by $1, even if I doubled my money) or it would be something obscure that we would all get wrong (in which case, I could win by $1 if I bet nothing). I really couldn't envision a situation where David and I would get it right and Catherine would not, given her broad range of knowledge and excellent game play to that point. While standing at the podium, pen poised to write down my wager, I flip-flopped about ten times, but I ultimately decided not to play for second place, but to take a chance and go for first. It didn't work out as planned, but I did actually have a strategy!
For spur-of-the-moment reasoning, it's not bad, but of course, the actual correct decision should be derived from quantitative analysis taking into account prize money, confidence in the category, chances leader will get it right, maybe conditional probabilities, etc. Under certain assumptions, your play is okay, and under others, it's sub-optimal.
I will say that your assumption about Catherine knowing everything that you and David would doesn't make much sense. Maybe if she was a 10-day champion locking game after game, not when she has a nice debut game with a small Coryat lead over 2nd place.