Monday, November 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Anachronism
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Re: Monday, November 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Anachronism » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 am

opusthepenguin wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:53 am
Anachronism wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:38 am
Yet how do you feel if you sit there having gotten FJ right from first place and yet you're going home? An optimal bet is only optimal if you know how others are going to bet. In this case, I don't see anything wrong with either bet.
For that to be true, there would have to be situations where my bet loses and Mary Ann's wins and vice versa, depending on what Jonathan bets and who gets FJ. Play with the numbers and see if you're right. Here's the situation going into FJ:

Jonathan Greenan: 14400
Mary Ann Borer: 19200

To make things easy (because this is actually a special situation where one can think strategically about tying, but let's ignore that) I'll recommend that Mary Ann bet $9601.

Mary Ann actually bet $19000.

The challenge: Find me a situation where Mary Ann would have won with her bet but lost with mine.
There is none. But she can't assume Jonathan will bet anything more than 4,800 no more than she can assume he will double his total. So I don't recommend that she bet 9601 even though she should bet to cover. With third place unable to steal, I think there's a case for betting everything because that's $9,600 more in her pocket if she wins and a high likelihood that Jonathan has guaranteed the win if she misses.

We also don't know how she feels about the FJ category.

I do, however, fail to see any strategy behind Jonathan's bet of 5,000, even though it would have won in the double-miss, but with your Mary Ann bet, it wouldn't. The range at which this makes a difference seems dependent on Jonathan not acting in his best interest. Either he wants to mostly ensure the double-miss or he doesn't.

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TenPoundHammer
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Re: Monday, November 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Binge-watch-after-Hawaii time... and then come home to find my modem fried.

Poor Gerald seemed to deflate after that missed DD. That was cruel that he got back to $0 with one clue left on the board.

Ran Rhymes with Mug, all but A Star Is Born in Lady Gaga and Athens in Sister Cities.

Bad Romance was definitely not a TPH-friendly category.

Didn't know the meaning of "Bronco" in either English or Spanish. Ended up with a rare 0/5 in Word Origins.

Train station -> British -> uhhh....... Paddington?

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OrangeSAM
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Re: Monday, November 5, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by OrangeSAM » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:58 pm

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:11 pm
Bad Romance was definitely not a TPH-friendly category.
Must.....bite......tongue...
OCSam

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