Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

This is where all of the games are discussed.

Moderators: alietr, dhkendall, trainman, econgator

User avatar
CasketRomance
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1632
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 2:40 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CasketRomance » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:34 pm

morbeedo wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:06 pm
$75K is a generous parting gift for losing Teams Buzzy and Austy, considering the 3rd place team in the finals will only share $100K. They should have left empty-handed

Man, I had a bad feeling on the SOUNDTRACK DD - that category was too wide open for me to feel any confidence. Would have bet $5, especially with a whopping $0 carryover score from Day 1. Pretty Woman came to mind, but I discarded it because 'woman' was already in the clue. I let the tape roll and said "a ha" after Alex delivered the bad news

I missed FJ. Presidential trivia is not my thing, so naturally I panicked and scribbled down a 20th c. election year. I only ended up off by 8 years. Agree that the 19th c. guesses made no sense. I mean, there's no reason why the last time couldn't be hundreds of years ago, but safe to assume the writers wouldn't make you go that far back
wtf...thought you were into american politics? i don't know crap about american political bs and i got it instantly

davey
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 3284
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:55 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:04 am

tiwonge wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:25 pm
twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:08 pm
I was hoping for a Leonard statement performance. He played well and got a YEKIOYD DD and missed with a pretty good guess. He represented well.
I think that his DD could be puzzled out. Fitzgerald -> New Jersey -> Princeton. At least, that's a reasonable guess, and probably the reason why they included Fitzgerald instead of some current celeb whose academic or personal history might be familiar.
Fitzgerald was from Minnesota. I'm not sure why anybody would associate him with New Jersey who didn't already know he went to Princeton, but that fact is pretty well known. (Yes, he also went to prep school in NJ...) Leonard is too young to remember (yes, I said it!) all the publicity Brooke Shields got when she attended Princeton...

I have to point out that one triple stumper tonight might have been avoided if the players could have read a recent thread here-
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5030&p=299296&hilit ... ok#p299296

User avatar
Mathew5000
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 483
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 4:46 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Mathew5000 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:29 am

econgator wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:30 pm
teapot37 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:47 pm
Ouch on that second DD in the second round. I knew that one cold (I have listened to that soundtrack more times than I can count) but I can see it being impenetrable if you weren't familiar.
I had no idea, but I still am not sure why he didn't bet just $5 on that one.
Let's suppose you're Alex Jacob, what do you think your probability is of a get on this $1600 DD? Maybe 75%. A correct response would bring your score to $31,200. There's $10,400 remaining on the board, and you'd only need to earn $2,400 of that to completely lock out both other teams. Thus the all-in wager gives you almost a 75% probability of advancing to the finals. Let's call it 73%.

Now what if you bet the minimum $5? Current scores are: you $15,600; Team Colby $4,900; Team Austin $4,800; and there is $10,400 remaining on the board. For simplicity let's assume that each player gets $3,400 of the remaining money so the scores going into FJ would be: you $19,000; Team Colby $8,300; Team Austin $8,200. That is not even a crush, considering yesterday's scores of $7,600 for Team Colby and $5,200 for Team Austin. You have to wager $5,201 in FJ to cover Team Colby, and then if you're wrong you'd lose to a zero bet by Team Colby. In short, you'd be in a position where you will win on a correct FJ response, and sometimes win on a triple stumper. That's maybe a 60% probability of advancing to the finals, at most 65%, significantly worse than the 73% chance of winning the match by making it a TDD now.

Perhaps you can do better with a wager of, say, $4,000 on this DD. I haven't crunched the numbers on that, but I suspect it would still prove an inferior wager to all-in.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 6014
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:32 am

davey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:04 am
I have to point out that one triple stumper tonight might have been avoided if the players could have read a recent thread here-
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5030&p=299296&hilit ... ok#p299296
Too recent; this taped during the second week of January.

User avatar
floridagator
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1089
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:39 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:43 am

Mathew5000 wrote:
think your probability is of a get on this $1600 DD? Maybe 75%. A correct response would bring your score to $31,200. There's $10,400 remaining on the board, and you'd only need to earn $2,400 of that to completely lock out both other teams. Thus the all-in wager gives you almost a 75% probability of advancing to the finals. Let's call it 73%.
There was a million effing bucks on the line! If he gets the tdd wrong, he's out of the game. That is the main calculation I would be working from, instead of making up a probability number.

Plus, Alex had already bombed the $2,000 clue in that category before he got to the Daily Double. Those soundtracks questions could have been going for anything. If they'd played the category down from the top, they would know that before they hit the DD. It was a much different set of questions than, for example, giving the titles of songs that were actually written for the movies and asking for the name of the movie.

Once again I argue for a rule change that categories can only be played from the top down. That rule change would also save time, as it would eliminate having to call out a dollar amount.
I'd rather cuddle then have sex. If you're into grammar, you'll understand.

CyrusChan
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 443
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2011 1:31 am
Location: Queens

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CyrusChan » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:06 am

floridagator wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:43 am
Mathew5000 wrote:
think your probability is of a get on this $1600 DD? Maybe 75%. A correct response would bring your score to $31,200. There's $10,400 remaining on the board, and you'd only need to earn $2,400 of that to completely lock out both other teams. Thus the all-in wager gives you almost a 75% probability of advancing to the finals. Let's call it 73%.
There was a million effing bucks on the line! If he gets the tdd wrong, he's out of the game. That is the main calculation I would be working from, instead of making up a probability number.

Plus, Alex had already bombed the $2,000 clue in that category before he got to the Daily Double. Those soundtracks questions could have been going for anything. If they'd played the category down from the top, they would know that before they hit the DD. It was a much different set of questions than, for example, giving the titles of songs that were actually written for the movies and asking for the name of the movie.

Once again I argue for a rule change that categories can only be played from the top down. That rule change would also save time, as it would eliminate having to call out a dollar amount.

I would have gone for 4,000 or 5,000. An incorrect would still provide me the lead of over 5000. That is enough as he only needs like a 4k lead to final to be the winner if correct on the final. Those chances are good.

An incorrect bet that high means he needed like the board for even that chance at the final.

If correct, 30k, I highly doubt one of the other two would accrue like 8k off the remaining board, excluding Alex so you are pretty much lock-game.

Pretty much, he went to win on that one question in a "broad" category.
Obviously, you need to factor in his strength in that category too.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 6014
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:09 am

If Alex had done his standard $100 minimum on the second DD, here's how things would have looked entering FJ:

Code: Select all

Team Buzzy:     0 19100 19100 38200
Team Colby:  7600  7600 15200 22800
Team Austin: 5200  8900 14100 23000
Team Buzzy would have had to wager $3,901 to cover Team Austin, and they would have fallen to $15,199, a dollar behind Team Colby's pre-FJ cumulative score, meaning that Team Colby would still have won on the TS as long as they knew to bet $0.

The only DD3 wagers that likely save Team Buzzy from the TS FJ are $5-$99 (for a crush equivalent of $19,101-$19,195) and $7,801-$9,066 (for a third-place, two-thirds equivalent of $10,134-$11,399 that Team Colby would have to bet more than their leading margin to cover).

Here's what various pre-FJ2 scores would have meant for Team Buzzy.
$23,001+: Lock
$23,000: Lock-tie over Team Austin
$22,901-$22,999: Can cover Team Austin without letting Team Colby in
$22,900: "First equals second plus third" equivalent, i.e. break point where third place can win on a sole get
$19,101-$22,899: Crush equivalent, i.e. can cover Team Austin with no risk of losing in a TS
$19,100: "First equals second plus half of third" equivalent, i.e. break point where third place doesn't have to get FJ right to clear first place's final score on a miss
$15,301-$19,099: Have to bet more than lead over Team Colby to cover Team Austin
$11,501-$15,300: Still have the advantage, but covering Team Austin and missing leaves them behind Team Colby's day 1 score, guaranteeing a loss
$11,500: Exactly half of Team Austin's maximum total; have to bet it all, get it right, and (if Team Austin is also right) win a tiebreaker (laying out and hoping Team Austin wipes out their Day 2 score isn't an option because Team Colby's cumulative score is higher than $11,500)
$11,401-$11,499: Second place advantage over Team Colby, but guaranteed loss on a cover and miss
$11,400: Exactly half of Team Colby's maximum total; have to bet it all, get it right, hope Team Austin gets it wrong, and (if Team Colby is also right) win a tiebreaker (potential here to lay out and hope Team Colby wipes out their day 2 score)
$10,134-$11,399: Close third; only need Team Colby and Team Austin to cover and miss to win
$10,133: Just a third of a dollar below the two-thirds break point, Team Colby will fall to exactly this score if they cover by $1. Weird spot to be in; in a real two-thirds position a trailer who bets $0 will either tie or win outright if the leader misses, whereas here the leader who offers a tie and misses will win outright if the trailer bets $0
$7,601-$10,132: Need a sole get to win
$7,600: Low end of a lock-tie with Team Colby; need to get FJ right while Team Austin misses, then win a tiebreaker
$0-$7,599: Locked out by Team Colby (who have no reason to wager anything)
Last edited by seaborgium on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
floridagator
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1089
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:39 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:18 am

One more thing... a Scott number has nothing to do with the value of a stamp. It is merely the catalog number of the stamp, issued in rough chronological order. For example, the first U.S. stamps of 1847 are Scott 1 and Scott 2. The famous upside-down airplane stamp is Scott C3a. The Jerome Kern centennial stamp of 1985 is Scott 2110.

Once a collector knows the Scott number, she can look up the Scott catalog value. Retail prices are typically one-third to one-half of what is listed in the Scott catalog.
I'd rather cuddle then have sex. If you're into grammar, you'll understand.

tiwonge
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 204
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:06 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by tiwonge » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:29 am

davey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:04 am


Fitzgerald was from Minnesota. I'm not sure why anybody would associate him with New Jersey who didn't already know he went to Princeton, but that fact is pretty well known. (Yes, he also went to prep school in NJ...) Leonard is too young to remember (yes, I said it!) all the publicity Brooke Shields got when she attended Princeton...

I have to point out that one triple stumper tonight might have been avoided if the players could have read a recent thread here-
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5030&p=299296&hilit ... ok#p299296
I associate The Great Gatsby with New Jersey. Where was it set? Maybe I just lucked into getting it right by being wrong about that.

Hmm... It appears to be on Long Island, which explains Leonard's guess of Columbia.

chmmr
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 200
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by chmmr » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:47 am

That second DD was insane. I've watched Pulp Fiction multiple times and still couldn't get it. They could have picked more plot-relevant songs.

Not sure how I feel about the all-in bet but I know Alex likes his movies so it makes sense to feel comfortable. Although, like Floridagator mentioned, he did miss the 2000 clue.

Excited to see the remains of Team Colby getting wiped off the podium next week.

davidmadden050619
Just Starting Out on JBoard
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:27 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davidmadden050619 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:53 am

MarkBarrett wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:23 pm
Not that it proves anything, I was curious how debut years broke down for finals vs. eliminated: (for same year I did alphabetical and it does not necessarily mean who played first in that calendar year)

Brad: 2000
Pam: 2000
Ken: 2004
David: 2005
Larissa: 2008
Colby: 2012
Monica: 2012
Matt: 2015
Alan: 2017

Austin: 2017
Buzzy: 2016
Seth: 2016
Alex: 2015
Jennifer: 2015
Julia: 2014
Ben: 2013
Leonard: 2013
Roger: 2010
oughts represent!

kprather895
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:32 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by kprather895 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:45 am

What an incredible tournament this has been, start to finish. Yesterday and today, we're seeing something we don't see very often on Jeopardy: gut-wrenching emotion. Between Alan yesterday and Alex today, you can really see just how much the team dynamic makes a difference.

I'm sure Team Colby would agree they are the underdogs against Teams Ken and Brad to say the least, but don't be too quick to count them out. Thinking back to the Decades Tournament, I remember day one of the final being very low scoring, leaving the tournament up for grabs by anyone. Remember that if Roger was correct on EITHER of his TDDs, he would have won the tournament.

I've said since the draft that Team Colby is definitely the hungriest of the six teams. You have Alan, runner-up in the last ToC, and you have Colby and Pam, both semifinalist runners-up in the Decades. And remember that Pam was a semifinalist runner-up in the UTOC before that. Twice Pam has come up just short of facing Ken and Brad, and now third time's a charm. What a spectacular ending it would be for Team Colby to pull off the upset.

User avatar
StevenH
Not J! Contestant Material
Posts: 2201
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:24 pm
Location: Atlanta, Georgia

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by StevenH » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:04 am

I went back all the way to 1788 for FJ. Once Colby's response was revealed I was pretty confident of what the correct response was.

I was happy to get Pulp Fiction. I am not a big movie person, but I was all over that one. It did seem kind of YKITOYD, though the stacked field of Best Picture nominees for 1994 could have been a hint.

davey
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 3284
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:55 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:44 am

For the clue for which the right response was Deadpool 2 , the sequence of wrong responses that came from the players matched my sequence of guesses, Mamma Mia 2 (no that wouldn't have a Cher song even though she's in it), Blade Runner (no they won't accept that), Blade Runner...(unlike Roger, I couldn't remember the right year... ) :oops:

There was a quick cut after this clue in Reference Works-

Library Journal's best reference books of 2017 include these sites: "Walking the Trails of History", like at Chickamauga

Roger said "What are... [CUT to different camera] Civil War Battlefields?" That is the full main title of the book, though the clue isn't clear that a title is required. "Walking the Trails of History" could be the title rather than a subtitle. I wonder what happened? Roger said "battlefields" and was counted wrong, then they thought better of it, then they asked him to record the whole title just to save time? Would that be kosher?
I noticed this in particular because my response was just "battlefields," but I would have been ready for a BMS.

User avatar
morbeedo
In Jeopardy! Limbo
Posts: 2162
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:58 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by morbeedo » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:00 am

davey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:44 am
There was a quick cut after this clue in Reference Works-

Library Journal's best reference books of 2017 include these sites: "Walking the Trails of History", like at Chickamauga

Roger said "What are... [CUT to different camera] Civil War Battlefields?" That is the full main title of the book, though the clue isn't clear that a title is required. "Walking the Trails of History" could be the title rather than a subtitle. I wonder what happened? Roger said "battlefields" and was counted wrong, then they thought better of it, then they asked him to record the whole title just to save time? Would that be kosher?
I noticed this in particular because my response was just "battlefields," but I would have been ready for a BMS.
I stared at this one and couldn’t parse the clue to figure out what they were looking for. Never heard of Chickamauga, so that didn’t help

Overall, I’m digging the tournament, but it’s too bad Ken is the oldest player in the group at 44. They could have pulled in one or two players north of 45

User avatar
boson
Trivial
Posts: 1550
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:01 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by boson » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:05 am

davey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:44 am
For the clue for which the right response was Deadpool 2 , the sequence of wrong responses that came from the players matched my sequence of guesses, Mamma Mia 2 (no that wouldn't have a Cher song even though she's in it), Blade Runner (no they won't accept that), Blade Runner...(unlike Roger, I couldn't remember the right year... ) :oops:

There was a quick cut after this clue in Reference Works-

Library Journal's best reference books of 2017 include these sites: "Walking the Trails of History", like at Chickamauga

Roger said "What are... [CUT to different camera] Civil War Battlefields?" That is the full main title of the book, though the clue isn't clear that a title is required. "Walking the Trails of History" could be the title rather than a subtitle. I wonder what happened? Roger said "battlefields" and was counted wrong, then they thought better of it, then they asked him to record the whole title just to save time? Would that be kosher?
I noticed this in particular because my response was just "battlefields," but I would have been ready for a BMS.
Roger confirmed on twitter that he answered battlefields, and was asked to be more specific, and got it. He says they were editing out a lot of instances like that to have time to show the strategy sessions (heavily edited themselves).

flemmingfan
Loyal Jeopardista
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:40 am

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by flemmingfan » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:21 am

Get ready for a negative comment. I, for one, am glad to see Alex J. go. Watching him play annoys me, so intense and doesn't seem to enjoy the experience. On more than one occasion, he would hesitate (kill time) and then at last second blurt out the correct answer. I'm referring to his previous appearances also. But this time, it didn't work for him. I thought he had run out of time on a few of those (and this) occasion(s). I had the impression that he knew the answer right off but wanted the drama.
Boo on the wager. If you are playing by yourself, ok, but as a team player? I think it was foolhardy to say the least. There.

User avatar
Picked Off
Jeopardy! Contestant
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 4:01 pm
Contact:

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Picked Off » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:04 am

With apologies for not being current on the literature, has anyone crunched the numbers for the get rate on super tourney finals vs. regular games? Anecdotally, in this tournament it seems safer to bet on not knowing final than vice versa. Obviously, that is easy to say after two days of triple stumpers.
Season 27 player and lifelong fan

davey
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 3284
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:55 pm

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:50 am

boson wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:05 am
davey wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:44 am
For the clue for which the right response was Deadpool 2 , the sequence of wrong responses that came from the players matched my sequence of guesses, Mamma Mia 2 (no that wouldn't have a Cher song even though she's in it), Blade Runner (no they won't accept that), Blade Runner...(unlike Roger, I couldn't remember the right year... ) :oops:

There was a quick cut after this clue in Reference Works-

Library Journal's best reference books of 2017 include these sites: "Walking the Trails of History", like at Chickamauga

Roger said "What are... [CUT to different camera] Civil War Battlefields?" That is the full main title of the book, though the clue isn't clear that a title is required. "Walking the Trails of History" could be the title rather than a subtitle. I wonder what happened? Roger said "battlefields" and was counted wrong, then they thought better of it, then they asked him to record the whole title just to save time? Would that be kosher?
I noticed this in particular because my response was just "battlefields," but I would have been ready for a BMS.
Roger confirmed on twitter that he answered battlefields, and was asked to be more specific, and got it. He says they were editing out a lot of instances like that to have time to show the strategy sessions (heavily edited themselves).
Thanks! Good to know.

User avatar
opusthepenguin
The Best Darn Penguin on the Whole JBoard
Posts: 6412
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:33 pm
Location: Shawnee, KS
Contact:

Re: Friday, March 1, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:14 am

kprather895 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:45 am
What an incredible tournament this has been, start to finish. Yesterday and today, we're seeing something we don't see very often on Jeopardy: gut-wrenching emotion. Between Alan yesterday and Alex today, you can really see just how much the team dynamic makes a difference.

I'm sure Team Colby would agree they are the underdogs against Teams Ken and Brad to say the least, but don't be too quick to count them out. Thinking back to the Decades Tournament, I remember day one of the final being very low scoring, leaving the tournament up for grabs by anyone. Remember that if Roger was correct on EITHER of his TDDs, he would have won the tournament.

I've said since the draft that Team Colby is definitely the hungriest of the six teams. You have Alan, runner-up in the last ToC, and you have Colby and Pam, both semifinalist runners-up in the Decades. And remember that Pam was a semifinalist runner-up in the UTOC before that. Twice Pam has come up just short of facing Ken and Brad, and now third time's a charm. What a spectacular ending it would be for Team Colby to pull off the upset.
Definitely on the emotion/team angle. I think Alex would be a lot more at peace with himself if this was a single-player game. He took a calculated risk. He lost. It happens. He knows how to deal with that. But throw in the dynamic of being the one who decisively lost the match for two other people and it's a lot harder to take. You can re-crunch the numbers all you want to prove to yourself that you made the right call. It's still an awful feeling.

I think you're right that Team Colby is the hungriest team. But if I had to pick the hungriest single player, I think it would be Larissa. She gets so close and then loses from a dominant position. With a few different breaks she'd be the GOAT, and she knows it. She's the anti-Brad.

Post Reply