hscer wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:19 pm
I'm just curious, how much of this do you think is due to a change in the meta? DD hunting and wagering has become a much bigger deal in recent years. It kind of reminds me of the three-point shot in the NBA (or launch angle in baseball). Guys like Bird, Jordan, Bryant, Iverson--focusing just on scoring in this analogy--how much more efficient could they have gotten with a 2019-level emphasis on long range? How much more could Jennings or a Roger Craig in his 77K game have won with a 2019 DD approach? Perhaps Holzhauer is the Harden to Jennings' Jordan. Just a thought, curious what you and others think.
I think there's a lot of merit to what you're suggesting. An additional factor I haven't seen anyone mention is that the game has apparently gotten much easier this season. I have a backlog of eight weeks of shows from the middle of this season, so these numbers are likely off by a bit, but here's what I have for the adjusted* combined Coryat for regular games over the past four seasons:
That's a very significant jump. It could be due to a quantum leap in player quality, but both the eye test and the fact that my own Coryat has seen a similar boost this season suggest that that isn't the case.
The numbers for DDs are similar:
S32: 65.2% conversion rate
If elite players know that there are many fewer legitimately difficult/obscure clues, they might be able to really "let it go" without worrying about negging a bunch or getting stymied by a rough DD.
* - I adjust each game's combined Coryat by a) eliminating any amounts that are double-counted due to reversals and b) accounting for unrevealed clues according to the formula (combined Coryat/(54,000 - total value of unrevealed clues)) * 54,000.
Sprinkles are for winners.