So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

This is where all of the games are discussed.

Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall

Post Reply
User avatar
CasketRomance
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 2:40 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by CasketRomance » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:22 pm

ouachiouat wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:39 pm
CasketRomance wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:20 pm
apparently sportsbooks are getting into the hype

bovada had lines of

o/u 24.5 games won -120 juice for both sides

will he beat jennings' record games won streak....no at -900 and yes at +500

will he beat jennings $2,520,700 mark no -220, yes +155
Seems like a bad idea for Bovada and any other books that may be taking action on this. Presumably people who were in the audence for various tapings would know if he actually passed 25/74/2.5 M or not and could make large bets on that side accordingly.
the limits on this sort of things are probably pretty low...much like they do with wrestlemania props

User avatar
CasketRomance
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 2:40 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by CasketRomance » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:24 pm

triviawayne wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:46 pm
ouachiouat wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:39 pm
CasketRomance wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:20 pm
apparently sportsbooks are getting into the hype

bovada had lines of

o/u 24.5 games won -120 juice for both sides

will he beat jennings' record games won streak....no at -900 and yes at +500

will he beat jennings $2,520,700 mark no -220, yes +155
Seems like a bad idea for Bovada and any other books that may be taking action on this. Presumably people who were in the audence for various tapings would know if he actually passed 25/74/2.5 M or not and could make large bets on that side accordingly.
I would expect James will be getting in on the action
he would have to get someone to place the action or go outside the borders of the state of nevada...bovada is blocked in the state of nevada

User avatar
twelvefootboy
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1372
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:18 pm
Location: Tornado Alley / Southwest Missouri

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by twelvefootboy » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:43 pm

I apologize if this has already been stated and repeated many times, but just how far can James get if he runs the table on 2019? I saw somewhere that there are 70 episodes remaining, and he has 12 as of this week's start. How many are left for him? Is it 60 because of the Teacher's tournament? So he might get to #72 and have to wait out the summer?

Hopefully someone else will want to know this answer as well.

I agree with Ken Jennings on the sports book angle - who is betting on this stacked deck?
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.

User avatar
MinnesotaMyron
Jeopardy! Champion
Posts: 1741
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 12:53 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by MinnesotaMyron » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:21 am

twelvefootboy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:43 pm
I apologize if this has already been stated and repeated many times, but just how far can James get if he runs the table on 2019? I saw somewhere that there are 70 episodes remaining, and he has 12 as of this week's start. How many are left for him? Is it 60 because of the Teacher's tournament? So he might get to #72 and have to wait out the summer?

Hopefully someone else will want to know this answer as well.

I agree with Ken Jennings on the sports book angle - who is betting on this stacked deck?
70 games left this season, including Monday. Two weeks of Teachers and two weeks of Teens leaves a nice round 50 games. James won number 12 on Friday, meaning he could get to, at most, 62 by the end of S35.

Now I heard they added 2 extra tape days, which is also what they did during Ken's streak. This time, of course, it's possible they just want to work around Alex's treatment, so they're building up a backlog (this is all speculation). But let's say he's still winning at then end of those ten. They could certainly bump the teens to S36 (they've done that before), and run 10 more James games to end this season, which would indeed put him on 72 going into next season. Either way, he'd be sitting at home just shy of Ken's record, digging into the books and practicing his buzzer finger like never before.

Can't wait. :)

User avatar
OntarioQuizzer
Lots and Lots of Interviews
Posts: 1275
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:01 am

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:17 am

MinnesotaMyron wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:21 am
Now I heard they added 2 extra tape days...
This did not happen. Tape days that were originally scheduled on April 8 & 9 got pushed up to March 30 and April 6, to accommodate Alex's treatment schedule. The show only has until the July 26 episode in the can at this juncture.

Also, tape days in 2004 were added to the schedule because the WGA contract was set to expire on April 30, 2004, and the show wanted to be prepared in case of job action (The 2004 Tournament of Champions was taped April 29 and 30 of that year so that the show would wrap, and they'd have 4 weeks of Season 21 in the can, just in case there was a protracted writer's strike). The same happened in 2017; four weeks of tapings were added in April as, again, the WGA contract was expiring.
Andy Saunders
Moderator, #JeopardyLivePanel
Host, Complete The List
J! Archive Founding Archivist
Site Admin - The Jeopardy! Fan

User avatar
twelvefootboy
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1372
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:18 pm
Location: Tornado Alley / Southwest Missouri

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by twelvefootboy » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:51 pm

MinnesotaMyron wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:21 am
twelvefootboy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:43 pm

I agree with Ken Jennings on the sports book angle - who is betting on this stacked deck?
70 games left this season, including Monday. Two weeks of Teachers and two weeks of Teens leaves a nice round 50 games. James won number 12 on Friday, meaning he could get to, at most, 62 by the end of S35.
So the streak wager is still cromulent and (possibly) not pre-ordained. It seems to heavily spoiler that James will run the table on S35. Vegas doesn't do stupid.

FWIW, Roger Craig's $77k is about $89k in 2019 money and Ken Jenning's money was about 130% more value. Not for the sake of record legitimacy, but the financial hit to the studio is 30% softer than it sounds compared to KJ's.
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.

User avatar
triviawayne
Hoping I don’t drown in this contestant pool
Posts: 1448
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:50 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by triviawayne » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:47 pm

twelvefootboy wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:51 pm
MinnesotaMyron wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:21 am
twelvefootboy wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:43 pm

I agree with Ken Jennings on the sports book angle - who is betting on this stacked deck?
70 games left this season, including Monday. Two weeks of Teachers and two weeks of Teens leaves a nice round 50 games. James won number 12 on Friday, meaning he could get to, at most, 62 by the end of S35.
So the streak wager is still cromulent and (possibly) not pre-ordained. It seems to heavily spoiler that James will run the table on S35. Vegas doesn't do stupid.

FWIW, Roger Craig's $77k is about $89k in 2019 money and Ken Jenning's money was about 130% more value. Not for the sake of record legitimacy, but the financial hit to the studio is 30% softer than it sounds compared to KJ's.
But KJ took more time to amass the money, James is blowing away the average daily payout the show has for its budget.
Total game show career losings = $171,522

henrix77
Newbie
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:54 am

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by henrix77 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:23 pm

I'm trying to get a bet down on this...but Bovada seems to have deleted the line? Anyone else having issues? I can find 3rd party sites saying that Bovada is offering +500 for James, but when I go to Bovada, I can't find anything but Game of Thrones lines.

User avatar
CasketRomance
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 2:40 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by CasketRomance » Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:25 pm

henrix77 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:23 pm
I'm trying to get a bet down on this...but Bovada seems to have deleted the line? Anyone else having issues? I can find 3rd party sites saying that Bovada is offering +500 for James, but when I go to Bovada, I can't find anything but Game of Thrones lines.
i think they take the lines down late morning for this, since there are airings throughout the day....try looking back tomorrow early morning to see if they put the lines back up...they weren't up yesterday when i checked either...i got the lines from a dude's screen shot before the lines were taken down for the day

JyV92
Jeopardy! UTOCer
Posts: 179
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2011 8:06 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by JyV92 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:41 pm

Regarding reading the clue, and the light —
Unless you read very very slowly, there is plenty of time to read the clue before Alex finishes reading it out loud.

The light does not come on randomly. There is a set amount of time after Alex finishes reading the clue that it comes on. Your buzzer skill should be such as though with music, have to hit the next beat. You should be ringing in when the light would be coming on. Or a tiny, tiny bit after. Often, when playing against top-quality buzzer people, if you can see the light, you're too slow. People are synchronizing their buzz-in with when the light would be coming on. Of course, this is only based on my experience.

For trivia, the timing changed over the years. And in the UToC, first round, they pushed the timing back to a quarter second. And then it changed again in the second round.

User avatar
Cat Hammarskjold
Feline Secretary-General
Posts: 916
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:35 am

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by Cat Hammarskjold » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:13 am

It just dawned on me that the $250,000 given to the winner of the ToC is a minimum guarantee. It would be fun to see if James can break that on a two day, total point affair.

User avatar
JayK33
Just a Fan
Posts: 746
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:10 pm
Location: Canada

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by JayK33 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:41 am

Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:13 am
It just dawned on me that the $250,000 given to the winner of the ToC is a minimum guarantee. It would be fun to see if James can break that on a two day, total point affair.
:lol: I'd be interested in that, too.

harrumph
Voyeur
Posts: 1673
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:00 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by harrumph » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:39 am

Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:13 am
It just dawned on me that the $250,000 given to the winner of the ToC is a minimum guarantee. It would be fun to see if James can break that on a two day, total point affair.
I don't know if James would bet huge on the first day FJ, even if he had a lead typical of his regular games.. A miss on it would bring him back to within striking range of his opponents, whereas a non huge bet would virtually guarantee him a lock after the second game. James really likes to win money but James really really likes to win. Some people have commented that James has left money on the table with some of his second round DD bets. I prefer to think that once James has established a lock for himself that he doesn't like to endanger the lock.

slam
Auditioning Since 1985
Posts: 230
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 10:05 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by slam » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:13 pm

Taping for the season is over. Does the fact that we haven’t heard about James losing, like we did for the Zerg-Jennings game, mean that he ran the rest of the season?

slam
Auditioning Since 1985
Posts: 230
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 10:05 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by slam » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm

harrumph wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:39 am
Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:13 am
It just dawned on me that the $250,000 given to the winner of the ToC is a minimum guarantee. It would be fun to see if James can break that on a two day, total point affair.
I don't know if James would bet huge on the first day FJ, even if he had a lead typical of his regular games.. A miss on it would bring him back to within striking range of his opponents, whereas a non huge bet would virtually guarantee him a lock after the second game. James really likes to win money but James really really likes to win. Some people have commented that James has left money on the table with some of his second round DD bets. I prefer to think that once James has established a lock for himself that he doesn't like to endanger the lock.
James is certainly all about strategy. I agree with you that if he had a large lead going into the first day’s FJ, he wouldn’t bet as big as he’s betting now. Of course, he’s probably less likely to have that big a lead in a TOC final. He would be facing strong and experienced players. He’s a great player, but there are other great players around, too.

And I also observed the same thing as you about his DD wagers in DJ! Particularly in the second half of the round my impression (haven’t gone back to fully analyze this) is that he bets so that he still has a lock game after a miss.

Austin Powers
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1629
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by Austin Powers » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm

slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Taping for the season is over. Does the fact that we haven’t heard about James losing, like we did for the Zerg-Jennings game, mean that he ran the rest of the season?
Not at all. Did you know about this magnificent run until it was imminent?

User avatar
morbeedo
Swimming in the Jeopardy! Pool
Posts: 2342
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:58 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by morbeedo » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:33 pm

Austin Powers wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm
slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Taping for the season is over. Does the fact that we haven’t heard about James losing, like we did for the Zerg-Jennings game, mean that he ran the rest of the season?
Not at all. Did you know about this magnificent run until it was imminent?
I was just explaining to work people how Jeopardy! tapes months in advance and then said, most likely James has already lost at some point in the future past, and nobody knew what the hell I was talking about ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

User avatar
gnash
Jeopardy! Champion
Posts: 1607
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:24 am

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by gnash » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:35 pm

slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm
harrumph wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:39 am
Cat Hammarskjold wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:13 am
It just dawned on me that the $250,000 given to the winner of the ToC is a minimum guarantee. It would be fun to see if James can break that on a two day, total point affair.
I don't know if James would bet huge on the first day FJ, even if he had a lead typical of his regular games.. A miss on it would bring him back to within striking range of his opponents, whereas a non huge bet would virtually guarantee him a lock after the second game. James really likes to win money but James really really likes to win. Some people have commented that James has left money on the table with some of his second round DD bets. I prefer to think that once James has established a lock for himself that he doesn't like to endanger the lock.
James is certainly all about strategy. I agree with you that if he had a large lead going into the first day’s FJ, he wouldn’t bet as big as he’s betting now. Of course, he’s probably less likely to have that big a lead in a TOC final. He would be facing strong and experienced players. He’s a great player, but there are other great players around, too.

And I also observed the same thing as you about his DD wagers in DJ! Particularly in the second half of the round my impression (haven’t gone back to fully analyze this) is that he bets so that he still has a lock game after a miss.
On Thursday's (4/25) last DD, he could have wagered up to $14,580 without risking the lock. (This fact is just amazing in itself; there were 6 clues worth 4,400 left.) He risked his daughter's birthday instead, $11,914. Now, if he were Watson, that could be called leaving money on the table. But for a human, that's a very good estimate of a big-but-safe wager on the spot, especially given that the remaining clues were all over the board.

BTW, it's commendable that the one stratagem he's never used is taking as much time as possible to come up with the wager, so as to run out the clock.

slam
Auditioning Since 1985
Posts: 230
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 10:05 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by slam » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:45 pm

Austin Powers wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm
slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Taping for the season is over. Does the fact that we haven’t heard about James losing, like we did for the Zerg-Jennings game, mean that he ran the rest of the season?
Not at all. Did you know about this magnificent run until it was imminent?
Actually, I didn’t know about it until he first broke the single day record a few days into his run. Usually, I watch the show on tape to fit my schedule. Im almost caught up now, but in the past I’ve been 40 or so games behind. Most seasons, I don’t fully catch up until the summer hiatus.

User avatar
triviawayne
Hoping I don’t drown in this contestant pool
Posts: 1448
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:50 pm

Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by triviawayne » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:48 pm

slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:45 pm
Austin Powers wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm
slam wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Taping for the season is over. Does the fact that we haven’t heard about James losing, like we did for the Zerg-Jennings game, mean that he ran the rest of the season?
Not at all. Did you know about this magnificent run until it was imminent?
Actually, I didn’t know about it until he first broke the single day record a few days into his run. Usually, I watch the show on tape to fit my schedule. Im almost caught up now, but in the past I’ve been 40 or so games behind. Most seasons, I don’t fully catch up until the summer hiatus.
I don't think it means anything one way or the other, but there was more information out there than there should've been at least a few weeks ahead of his first appearance. I guess it only means how far in advance you consider "imminent".
Total game show career losings = $171,522

Post Reply