Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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harrumph
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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by harrumph » Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm

The last DD wager was not optimal.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy » Thu May 09, 2019 11:23 pm

I'm glad Sara cut her potential loss in FJ and will have a pretty good chance at advancing. She got dealt a tough stack on the DD's. and FJ falls into the guy's lap. The gettable DD was an unforced error as she seemed to make a kneejerk response of Richmond without parsing the Civil Rights TOM.

Another NATO and USSR here, I kept casting for something else, and got as far as Eastern Bloc. I've heard the Warsaw Pact terminology, but didn't know it was a counter to NATO, and even could have believed it was related to Potsdam or some other dam thing.
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.

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This Is Kirk!
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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by This Is Kirk! » Thu May 09, 2019 11:58 pm

gnash wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 8:13 pm
Austin Powers wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 12:16 pm
"Oh this is a terribly easy FJ"

(watches as two folks miss it)

"..."
I broke my own house rule of keeping quiet during think music and blurted out "What is this? Kids' Week?" I mean, these are literally the two most important geopolitical terms of the last 70 years...
My wife could only come up with NATO and said it was because this was "a boy question." Then the two women on the show proceed to get it wrong. I hate when her sexist theories are validated like that. :D

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash » Fri May 10, 2019 12:55 am

twelvefootboy wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:23 pm
I'm glad Sara cut her potential loss in FJ and will have a pretty good chance at advancing. She got dealt a tough stack on the DD's. and FJ falls into the guy's lap. The gettable DD was an unforced error as she seemed to make a kneejerk response of Richmond without parsing the Civil Rights TOM.

Another NATO and USSR here, I kept casting for something else, and got as far as Eastern Bloc. I've heard the Warsaw Pact terminology, but didn't know it was a counter to NATO, and even could have believed it was related to Potsdam or some other dam thing.
Township jive was tough, but no brownie points for missing Alice B. Toklas! 8-)

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CasketRomance » Fri May 10, 2019 1:39 am

gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:55 am
twelvefootboy wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:23 pm
I'm glad Sara cut her potential loss in FJ and will have a pretty good chance at advancing. She got dealt a tough stack on the DD's. and FJ falls into the guy's lap. The gettable DD was an unforced error as she seemed to make a kneejerk response of Richmond without parsing the Civil Rights TOM.

Another NATO and USSR here, I kept casting for something else, and got as far as Eastern Bloc. I've heard the Warsaw Pact terminology, but didn't know it was a counter to NATO, and even could have believed it was related to Potsdam or some other dam thing.
Township jive was tough, but no brownie points for missing Alice B. Toklas! 8-)
never heard of her

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Lefty » Fri May 10, 2019 2:58 am

CasketRomance wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 1:39 am
gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:55 am

Township jive was tough, but no brownie points for missing Alice B. Toklas! 8-)
never heard of her
Alice B. Toklas
'Cause brownies be smokeless.
I'm smart and I want respect.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr » Fri May 10, 2019 9:14 am

Yeah, that last DD bet might have been the worst possible choice. Hopefully she survived it.

FJ was an FF for me (I immediately hit FF). I'm not surprised people have missed it, but I am surprised at people saying they aren't familiar with the Warsaw Pact. Maybe you had to be of the Duck-and-Cover Generation.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 » Fri May 10, 2019 9:29 am

One for the cheezguyty file: How many games in the Archive where one player was 0 for 4 on the big clues?

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash » Fri May 10, 2019 9:49 am

harrumph wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm
The last DD wager was not optimal.
Admittedly not an easy decision. I can see three distinct fully defensible wagers:

1. Wager $5 and sit pat in FJ - if you think the WC cutoff will be fairly low.

2. Wager between $2,801 and 4000-ish. If you miss, wager a lot in FJ; if you get it, wager to cover or a bit less (as it's unlikely a player will wager all of $9,600 in a tournament QF).

3. Wager $7,601 and control your fate right there and then.

Sure, none of the choices involves wagering $2,000. But even a strategically savvy contestant may be confounded by those choices.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Fri May 10, 2019 12:00 pm

57 R (Missed No Holds Barred, End Run, and Mr. Holland.)
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Hedgehog, Aardwolf, (Montgomery), Exodus, (South Africa), Tabla, H. G. Wells, Battle of San Jacinto, (Alice B. Toklas)
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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett » Fri May 10, 2019 12:13 pm

LucarioSnooperVixey wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:00 pm
57 R (Missed No Holds Barred, End Run, and Mr. Holland.)
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Hedgehog, Aardwolf, (Montgomery), Exodus, (South Africa), Tabla, H. G. Wells, Battle of San Jacinto, (Alice B. Toklas)
You're slipping. :)

#6461, aired 2012-10-22 FORMAL MOVIE TITLES $200: 1995: His "Opus"
#5929, aired 2010-05-27 MUSICAL MOVIE TITLES $2000: In this 1995 film Richard Dreyfuss finds it easier to reach the kids in his music class than his deaf son

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by harrumph » Fri May 10, 2019 12:41 pm

gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 9:49 am
harrumph wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm
The last DD wager was not optimal.
Admittedly not an easy decision. I can see three distinct fully defensible wagers:

1. Wager $5 and sit pat in FJ - if you think the WC cutoff will be fairly low.

2. Wager between $2,801 and 4000-ish. If you miss, wager a lot in FJ; if you get it, wager to cover or a bit less (as it's unlikely a player will wager all of $9,600 in a tournament QF).

3. Wager $7,601 and control your fate right there and then.

Sure, none of the choices involves wagering $2,000. But even a strategically savvy contestant may be confounded by those choices.
Your points are well taken, though I do feel that even in a tournament with wild cards, there's an edge to having a lead going into FJ. Winning the individual game guarantees advancing, and 2nd place rarely wagers to go way past the leader - they try to stay in a safe zone with a miss. A potential fourth option in your scenario - hope for a FJ as easy as knowing what the Warsaw pact was - unfortunately would not have worked out for her.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by cheezguyty » Fri May 10, 2019 12:42 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 9:29 am
One for the cheezguyty file: How many games in the Archive where one player was 0 for 4 on the big clues?
I found 18 such occurrences:

2019-05-09 | 2006-06-29
2018-07-05 | 2005-01-24
2018-03-01 | 2004-04-16
2016-11-09 | 2003-10-07
2015-06-29 | 2003-01-01
2011-05-25 | 2001-01-23
2010-05-25 | 2000-06-13
2008-11-17 | 1999-03-01
2007-09-25 | 1990-04-10

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gnash
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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash » Fri May 10, 2019 1:06 pm

harrumph wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:41 pm
gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 9:49 am
harrumph wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm
The last DD wager was not optimal.
Admittedly not an easy decision. I can see three distinct fully defensible wagers:

1. Wager $5 and sit pat in FJ - if you think the WC cutoff will be fairly low.

2. Wager between $2,801 and 4000-ish. If you miss, wager a lot in FJ; if you get it, wager to cover or a bit less (as it's unlikely a player will wager all of $9,600 in a tournament QF).

3. Wager $7,601 and control your fate right there and then.

Sure, none of the choices involves wagering $2,000. But even a strategically savvy contestant may be confounded by those choices.
Your points are well taken, though I do feel that even in a tournament with wild cards, there's an edge to having a lead going into FJ. Winning the individual game guarantees advancing, and 2nd place rarely wagers to go way past the leader - they try to stay in a safe zone with a miss. A potential fourth option in your scenario - hope for a FJ as easy as knowing what the Warsaw pact was - unfortunately would not have worked out for her.
I agree it's good to have a lead, but saying that doesn't reveal your preference. Are you saying you prefer #1 because it guarantees a lead? That's defensible, as I said, but it's far from obviously right, as the resulting lead is small and the score too low to guarantee a WC. So your options in FJ are:

1.1. Sit pat. That's what I had as part of the strategy leading to wager 1. It's the most consistent with preserving your score - but it also renders the lead almost irrelevant.

1.2. Wager to cover. But this is almost certain to eliminate you with a miss. If this is the plan, than choosing DD wager #1 makes no sense, because choice #2 gives you all the upsides with a lot less downsides.

1.3. Wager something in between. How low can you afford to go? How high do you need to reach to secure a WC? Tough questions. While there may be a WC probability distribution that makes this the optimal choice, I wouldn't want to put myself in the situation to make such decisions about the FJ wager.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 » Fri May 10, 2019 1:34 pm

I cackled a bit at the final $2000 wager that would drop her into a tie for the lead, but after thinking about it, the tie really doesn't have much effect in a QF as neither player should be making the cover wager, and the odds of them both picking the same amount to bet to maximize wild card chances are pretty slim.

One thing this game should show very clearly is the downside of the "standard" $2000 wager. Some might say, well she didn't bet big like Holzhauer but she missed all 3 so betting small kept her in the game! This may be true, but think of how much better off she'd be if she bet $5 each time instead of $2k, $3k, $2k. Losing $15 instead of $7000 leaves her at $16,585 at the end, a score from which she would have the option to bet $0 and have a very strong chance at advancing.

If you're gonna go big, go very big, and if you're gonna go small, go all the way small!

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash » Fri May 10, 2019 1:59 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 1:34 pm
Losing $15 instead of $7000 leaves her at $16,585 at the end, a score from which she would have the option to bet $0 and have a very strong chance at advancing.
Or even to wager to cover while retaining decent WC chances with a miss.
If you're gonna go big, go very big, and if you're gonna go small, go all the way small!
Exactly!!!

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman » Fri May 10, 2019 2:22 pm

gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 9:49 am
harrumph wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm
The last DD wager was not optimal.
Admittedly not an easy decision. I can see three distinct fully defensible wagers:

1. Wager $5 and sit pat in FJ - if you think the WC cutoff will be fairly low.

2. Wager between $2,801 and 4000-ish. If you miss, wager a lot in FJ; if you get it, wager to cover or a bit less (as it's unlikely a player will wager all of $9,600 in a tournament QF).

3. Wager $7,601 and control your fate right there and then.

Sure, none of the choices involves wagering $2,000. But even a strategically savvy contestant may be confounded by those choices.
Another DD bet o consider would be $800. If you get the DD wrong, you have twice as much as third place and can bet zero in FJ knowing you will be ahead of at least one person in the standings and have a pretty decent shot at a wild card. If you get it right, you have $1,600 to play with in FJ while shooting for the same strategy.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash » Fri May 10, 2019 2:29 pm

Bamaman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 2:22 pm
gnash wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 9:49 am
harrumph wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 10:42 pm
The last DD wager was not optimal.
Admittedly not an easy decision. I can see three distinct fully defensible wagers:

1. Wager $5 and sit pat in FJ - if you think the WC cutoff will be fairly low.

2. Wager between $2,801 and 4000-ish. If you miss, wager a lot in FJ; if you get it, wager to cover or a bit less (as it's unlikely a player will wager all of $9,600 in a tournament QF).

3. Wager $7,601 and control your fate right there and then.

Sure, none of the choices involves wagering $2,000. But even a strategically savvy contestant may be confounded by those choices.
Another DD bet o consider would be $800. If you get the DD wrong, you have twice as much as third place and can bet zero in FJ knowing you will be ahead of at least one person in the standings and have a pretty decent shot at a wild card. If you get it right, you have $1,600 to play with in FJ while shooting for the same strategy.
That's reasonable enough, though I would find it hard to even consider wagering zero with only 10,800.

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Re: Thursday, May 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by OrangeSAM » Sun May 12, 2019 12:46 am

MarkBarrett wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:13 pm
LucarioSnooperVixey wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:00 pm
57 R (Missed No Holds Barred, End Run, and Mr. Holland.)
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Hedgehog, Aardwolf, (Montgomery), Exodus, (South Africa), Tabla, H. G. Wells, Battle of San Jacinto, (Alice B. Toklas)
You're slipping. :)

#6461, aired 2012-10-22 FORMAL MOVIE TITLES $200: 1995: His "Opus"
#5929, aired 2010-05-27 MUSICAL MOVIE TITLES $2000: In this 1995 film Richard Dreyfuss finds it easier to reach the kids in his music class than his deaf son
Oh, give him a break. He was just a pup.
OCSam

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