Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:18 pm

Volante wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:52 pm
CyrusChan wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:31 pm
ParrotRob wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:39 am
What's hilarious is watching all the Twittiots saying he made the wrong FJ wager and that's why he, uh, finished where he did.
I saw that too. Laughed all so many who forget there's a third player. HAHA
The USA's worldwide math standing just keeps dropping further and further...
Oof. Even my severely math-impaired brain understands James's wager just fine.
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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by cthulhu » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:10 pm

mgiusto wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:44 pm
Alas she didn't calculate this and instead bet what she needed cover James doubling.
If I had been in her position, I would have likely done what she did given a plausibly wheelhouse category. Not making the standard cover bet puts her fate partially in James’ hands, and if she was very confident in the category, then being totally in control of the result may have been her preferred choice. The potential scenario of getting FJ right, from the lead, and losing because you didn’t bet enough, even if it was the “textbook” bet... :( :o :( :o

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:38 am

Leander wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:08 am
John Boy wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:01 am


Third (pardon my ignorance): what the hell is "Kip" Marlowe? I' know who Marlowe was, read some of his work in college, even came up with "Who was Marlowe?" for this FJ. Is "Kip" some nickname I've just never heard of? Was Marlowe, unbeknownst to us, secretly Kenyan? And what's up with including that name in the answer, James? (OTOH, I WAS super-impressed with the get on myelin.)
The playwright’s first name is Christopher. A short form of Christopher (old fashioned, I guess), is “Kit”, which is what James wrote.
I went back to correct that almost immediately. I guess you managed to read my mistake in those few seconds.

And I've never heard "Kit" used as an abbreviation for Christopher.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:47 am

Volante wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:15 am
John Boy wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:26 am
I wonder if I'll ever live to see the day when the latest great champ doesn't have to be matched up against the great champs of bygone years.
Never going to happen. And unlike when this is done with pro sports, you can't say they're playing different games (e.g., Ruth era baseball different from Trout era baseball)
I agree. I'm not saying J! today is a fundamentally different game compared to 15-20 years ago. There's nothing different in today's J! to compare to the lowered mound, or the lively ball, or any other changes from other games.

I'm saying much of the success of all the great players is the strength and stamina of being in the prime of young adulthood. And especially so (apparently) the quicker reflexes of younger people. So 20-something Brad or Ken won't play the game the same way he might if he played at age 45-50.

That's one of the reasons I hope TPTB don't cobble together YET ANOTHER super-tournament. The other is (just one viewer's opinion) we've seen quite enough of those guys from 25 seasons ago. Regular season, ToC, $MM, UToC, Battle of decades, team tournament, blah, blah, blah. Let it go already.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:53 am

opusthepenguin wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:33 pm
it directs to the same page as Christopher Marlowe and the first words of the article are "Christopher Marlowe, also known as Kit Marlowe". Including the nickname was a bit show-offy--"hanging on the rim" as SquareKara neatly put it--but hardly a risk.
As I said at the start of my original post, "pardon my ignorance." Until this discussion I had never heard any of this. So I learned something today.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by ObrienP » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:57 am

cthulhu wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:10 pm
mgiusto wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:44 pm
Alas she didn't calculate this and instead bet what she needed cover James doubling.
If I had been in her position, I would have likely done what she did given a plausibly wheelhouse category. Not making the standard cover bet puts her fate partially in James’ hands, and if she was very confident in the category, then being totally in control of the result may have been her preferred choice. The potential scenario of getting FJ right, from the lead, and losing because you didn’t bet enough, even if it was the “textbook” bet... :( :o :( :o

Yes, she could have figured out what James would bet and known she was safe with a $0 wager.
And James could have figured out that she would have figured out, counted on it, and wagered a higher amount to cover.
So clearly, I cannot choose the wine in front of you.

Ultimately, she could control her own destiny, and unless she is absolutely horrid in the category, she is going to choose to do so.

Holzhauer's bet was a risk, but a ridiculously small one. (A librarian in a category on Shakespeare, of course she is going to trust herself to get it right)
Emma betting on a sports gambler's wager and making her knowledge of the category irrelevant, is a much bigger risk. I can't imagine anyone doing so. And even if she did, you can hit on 19 in Blackjack and win, but that doesn't mean hitting on 19 is a smart decision.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by slam » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:39 am

John Boy wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:38 am
Leander wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:08 am
John Boy wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:01 am


Third (pardon my ignorance): what the hell is "Kip" Marlowe? I' know who Marlowe was, read some of his work in college, even came up with "Who was Marlowe?" for this FJ. Is "Kip" some nickname I've just never heard of? Was Marlowe, unbeknownst to us, secretly Kenyan? And what's up with including that name in the answer, James? (OTOH, I WAS super-impressed with the get on myelin.)
The playwright’s first name is Christopher. A short form of Christopher (old fashioned, I guess), is “Kit”, which is what James wrote.
I went back to correct that almost immediately. I guess you managed to read my mistake in those few seconds.

And I've never heard "Kit" used as an abbreviation for Christopher.
How about Christopher Catesby Harrington aka Kit Harrington aka Jon Snow (who knows nothing, so he probably isn't a J! fan :lol: )

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Newhausen » Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:47 am

ObrienP wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:57 am
Holzhauer's bet was a risk, but a ridiculously small one. (A librarian in a category on Shakespeare, of course she is going to trust herself to get it right)
Emma betting on a sports gambler's wager and making her knowledge of the category irrelevant, is a much bigger risk. I can't imagine anyone doing so. And even if she did, you can hit on 19 in Blackjack and win, but that doesn't mean hitting on 19 is a smart decision.
Not just any sports gambler, but literally the only thing she knows about him is that he's won money at a vastly higher clip than anyone in the history of the show. Even though he's clearly smart, you can't rule out the possibility that he got there by making huge wagers at literally *every* opportunity, and not just the ones that were strategically correct.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MollyQMurphy » Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:15 pm

a1srvng wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:11 am
You know, I just don't get this smart wager theory. Yeah, he locked out the third guy with his bet to lock in what... a GRAND? The guy's won over two mil and he's worried about a grand? This guy has continually preached about playing with house money and he's fiddling over second vs. third? If he bets it all and wins, it's monster bucks. He had no way to lock it up so let the whole bundle fly. If you lose by a buck and the other guy gets second (2K)...mercy! What a disaster! (kidding). If you lose, it's wooden nickels... if you win (I admit, no sure thing), that's a ton of scratch into his pot.... Just sayin'. Go for it and sail off a winner in the minds of everyone, even if you lose.
Emma has to miss the question for James to win. She has to bet to beat his double up by at least $1.
Or she has to bet nothing and hope that James misses it. Jay is not a factor in the latter for her.

So then the category is....a dream category for her. OMGwheelhouse (pardon me, AlexJ!) Dream FJ. She ran a similar category earlier in the same game! So she has to bet big. Zero bet is not an option.

James knows all of this. Emma must lose AND zero bet is not an option for her- she's a librarian! And she's studied J! for 4 auditions (years worth) AND her Master's thesis! So he must assume she will bet the 20k+ needed to lock him out.

For James, though, Jay IS a factor. He has to lock Jay out by only betting enough that, if he misses, he will still beat Jay"s best possible by $1. By doing that, he eliminates all scenarios where he and Emma both miss but Jay wins, including Jay bets zero or get it right, and he and Emma knock each other out with big bets and a wrong answer.

So, of all possible scenarios (8 right or wrong outcomes x 9 ((I think)) different betting schemes), James comes out the winner in the most scenarios by betting exactly what he did. It was never about 2nd place - it was best chance to win from 2nd going into FJ. And his best option to lock out Jay regardless of the outcome.

This is something both James and Emma (possibly Jay as well) would have researched and decided before they ever got on the show. James just hadn't gotten to FJ in 2nd before this episode or we'd have seen him do it earlier.
Last edited by MollyQMurphy on Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator » Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:44 pm

For anyone still thinking that James bet was wrong, just watch this (good to hear Keith again!) and then be quiet..... because you're wrong :) :

http://thefinalwager.com/2019/06/05/fin ... ne-3-2019/

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by AFRET CMS » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:18 pm

slam wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:39 am
John Boy wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:38 am
Leander wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:08 am
John Boy wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:01 am


Third (pardon my ignorance): what the hell is "Kip" Marlowe? I' know who Marlowe was, read some of his work in college, even came up with "Who was Marlowe?" for this FJ. Is "Kip" some nickname I've just never heard of? Was Marlowe, unbeknownst to us, secretly Kenyan? And what's up with including that name in the answer, James? (OTOH, I WAS super-impressed with the get on myelin.)
The playwright’s first name is Christopher. A short form of Christopher (old fashioned, I guess), is “Kit”, which is what James wrote.
I went back to correct that almost immediately. I guess you managed to read my mistake in those few seconds.

And I've never heard "Kit" used as an abbreviation for Christopher.
How about Christopher Catesby Harrington aka Kit Harrington aka Jon Snow (who knows nothing, so he probably isn't a J! fan :lol: )
Or, a little closer to home, frontiersman Kit Carson -- Christopher Houston Carson, and namesake of the capital of Nevada.
I'm not the defending Jeopardy! champion. But I have played one on TV.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:32 pm

Danmel wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:20 pm
What was the ribbon James was wearing? It wasn't explained and I couldn't tell if it was black. Purple is the color for pancreatic cancer. A poster on one of the news articles said they were at this taping, which was the first after Alex announced his diagnosis and thought that the news threw James off his game.
It looked black to me and the missus too. But black ribbons are for people who have died, which is a rather dissonant note to sound as you hand someone a get well card from your daughter. On closer inspection, I think it's purple and that just didn't show up well against the green shirt. So I think you're right to bring in the purple = pancreatic cancer and that's exactly what James was going for. Here's some freezeframe and zoom in evidence

You can already see that it COULD be purple in this pic:

Image

As we zoom in, the purpleness becomes more apparent:

Image

And finally here's a blown up swatch from the middle of the ribbon:

Image

Verdict: Purple. Good catch.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by polaris » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:57 am

Golf wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:56 pm
polaris wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:17 pm
Anyways, I get that in theory, he made the right wager, and also in practice it was the right wager, but I have a question for the vikings: could a wager of $11,399 (to stay above Jay's DJ score) or even $7,799 (to stay above Jay's score if he wagers at most $4,600 which is the right move for him) be justified? I just hate the thought of allowing the leader to win with a $0 wager when I could have stopped it (I would hate to find myself between 2/3 and 3/4 of the leaders total), I respect James for having the balls to hold himself to $1,399; I don't know if I could do it.
My first thought was no way could it be justified. But then again, with his 97% get rate on FJ combined with the fact that third should (in theory, but few contestants understand this) not wager everything, it probably should be at least considered. Another reason would be this, James will always wager optimally, which means Emma can wager $0 and win regardless.

I hate second level thinking on Jeopardy because contestants are typically so sub-optimal when it comes to wagering. It is just useless. But in this case.....

This is why the best poker players always balance their ranges, if you always bet in the same manner, even if it's optimal, you can be exploited. James could have easily been exploited in FJ.
Yes, second-level thinking is not something I would go into. That's why I would immediately discard, after some thought, my proposed $7,799 wager, because that is counting on a lot. But I really do think $11,399 could be justified just because, yes, 97% of the time may be a high long-term get rate, but, what about a get rate when third is wrong? That may well be closer to 97%.

Then again, this is just my own mind hating, hating, hating, the idea of not at least covering a $0 wager. I know it's just a neural mistake on my part (I have studied game theory so I get exactly why James was right), but I really have a hard time accepting the facts in this case.

As for balancing ranges, that is true, but FJ! is not a repeated game so that's less relevant, albeit interesting. I suppose if he played from second multiple times and did the same strategy each time, then other contestants could exploit that.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Peter the accountant » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:22 pm

econgator wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:44 pm
For anyone still thinking that James bet was wrong, just watch this (good to hear Keith again!) and then be quiet..... because you're wrong :) :

http://thefinalwager.com/2019/06/05/fin ... ne-3-2019/
Innumeracy is running rampant lately. Anyone who would argue that James threw the game by wagering too little in FJ has never thought about the most basic math in the game.

And yes, it is good to see Keith again.
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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by dylannewton » Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 am

Does anybody involved with the J! Archive website have a data set that includes the scores going into Final Jeopardy and after Final Jeopardy for all three contestants? I don't need the entire 35 seasons worth but it would be nice getting about 1,000 to 2,000 games or so that has this information. I'd like to analyse those numbers. I'm curious to know how often people in James' position on Monday bet like he did compared to betting it all.

It's so interesting with this particular game since James answered 97% of questions correctly during his run that he did the low wager to lock out the third place player. He can very reasonably think he will know the answer, wager everything and hope Emma gets it wrong, which is his only chance of winning anyway if she bets as expected. That gives him a lot more extra money (88% more), but perhaps his marginal earnings in that scenario is a non factor for him having already won $2.4 million. He still would've needed 1 more win to beat Ken Jennings' record even if he bet everything and Emma got it wrong so it's reasonable to think this was a non-factor in his decision making no matter how you look at it.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin » Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:19 am

dylannewton wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 am
It's so interesting with this particular game since James answered 97% of questions correctly during his run that he did the low wager to lock out the third place player. He can very reasonably think he will know the answer, wager everything and hope Emma gets it wrong, which is his only chance of winning anyway if she bets as expected. That gives him a lot more extra money (88% more), but perhaps his marginal earnings in that scenario is a non factor for him having already won $2.4 million. He still would've needed 1 more win to beat Ken Jennings' record even if he bet everything and Emma got it wrong so it's reasonable to think this was a non-factor in his decision making no matter how you look at it.
What's the expected value of a win here? It's gotta be fairly large. Why take the small but non-zero risk of losing to get an extra $22,000?

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by hbomb1947 » Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:22 am

opusthepenguin wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:19 am
dylannewton wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 am
It's so interesting with this particular game since James answered 97% of questions correctly during his run that he did the low wager to lock out the third place player. He can very reasonably think he will know the answer, wager everything and hope Emma gets it wrong, which is his only chance of winning anyway if she bets as expected. That gives him a lot more extra money (88% more), but perhaps his marginal earnings in that scenario is a non factor for him having already won $2.4 million. He still would've needed 1 more win to beat Ken Jennings' record even if he bet everything and Emma got it wrong so it's reasonable to think this was a non-factor in his decision making no matter how you look at it.
What's the expected value of a win here? It's gotta be fairly large. Why take the small but non-zero risk of losing to get an extra $22,000?
This. And although he went 32 of 33 on FJ's, it's been speculated on this board that over time, his true FJ solving level might be closer to 85%. All it would have taken was another Jane Fonda-type FJ (to say nothing of a Liederkranz one) to expose the folly of going all-in.
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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by dylannewton » Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:42 am

hbomb1947 wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:22 am
opusthepenguin wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:19 am
dylannewton wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 am
It's so interesting with this particular game since James answered 97% of questions correctly during his run that he did the low wager to lock out the third place player. He can very reasonably think he will know the answer, wager everything and hope Emma gets it wrong, which is his only chance of winning anyway if she bets as expected. That gives him a lot more extra money (88% more), but perhaps his marginal earnings in that scenario is a non factor for him having already won $2.4 million. He still would've needed 1 more win to beat Ken Jennings' record even if he bet everything and Emma got it wrong so it's reasonable to think this was a non-factor in his decision making no matter how you look at it.
What's the expected value of a win here? It's gotta be fairly large. Why take the small but non-zero risk of losing to get an extra $22,000?
This. And although he went 32 of 33 on FJ's, it's been speculated on this board that over time, his true FJ solving level might be closer to 85%. All it would have taken was another Jane Fonda-type FJ (to say nothing of a Liederkranz one) to expose the folly of going all-in.
Going with 97% probability of being correct: wager of $1,399 yields an expected value of $24,715.06. Going all in with $23,400 yields an expected value of $45,396.00. The difference between the two isn't significant in James' case since he already had $2.4 million. If we go by a lower win probability of 85% the expected values change to $24,379.30 and $39,870.00, respectively so definitely a much greater risk by going all in.

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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by hbomb1947 » Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:27 pm

dylannewton wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:42 am
hbomb1947 wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:22 am
opusthepenguin wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:19 am
dylannewton wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 am
It's so interesting with this particular game since James answered 97% of questions correctly during his run that he did the low wager to lock out the third place player. He can very reasonably think he will know the answer, wager everything and hope Emma gets it wrong, which is his only chance of winning anyway if she bets as expected. That gives him a lot more extra money (88% more), but perhaps his marginal earnings in that scenario is a non factor for him having already won $2.4 million. He still would've needed 1 more win to beat Ken Jennings' record even if he bet everything and Emma got it wrong so it's reasonable to think this was a non-factor in his decision making no matter how you look at it.
What's the expected value of a win here? It's gotta be fairly large. Why take the small but non-zero risk of losing to get an extra $22,000?
This. And although he went 32 of 33 on FJ's, it's been speculated on this board that over time, his true FJ solving level might be closer to 85%. All it would have taken was another Jane Fonda-type FJ (to say nothing of a Liederkranz one) to expose the folly of going all-in.
Going with 97% probability of being correct: wager of $1,399 yields an expected value of $24,715.06. Going all in with $23,400 yields an expected value of $45,396.00. The difference between the two isn't significant in James' case since he already had $2.4 million. If we go by a lower win probability of 85% the expected values change to $24,379.30 and $39,870.00, respectively so definitely a much greater risk by going all in.
This is wrong. Any purported calculation of expected value that doesn't take into account the massive value of James getting to return for one or more additional games if he wins is useless.
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Re: Monday, June 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CasualJeopardyFan19 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:55 am

Even though James lost in this game, I still think he played really well. The fact that he lost despite giving no incorrect responses is a true testament to how amazing of a contestant he was. I'm forever gonna miss him, but he is by far IMO the best player the show has ever had.

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