I'll defer to you then. Who I am to counter an actuary and economist on this type of thing, when I am but a failed actuary and failed economist.gnash wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:12 pmThere's no sound theory saying that the third should not wager everything. In fact, Jay should have wagered either everything or nothing.Golf wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:56 pmMy first thought was no way could it be justified. But then again, with his 97% get rate on FJ combined with the fact that third should (in theory, but few contestants understand this) not wager everything, it probably should be at least considered. Another reason would be this, James will always wager optimally, which means Emma can wager $0 and win regardless.polaris wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:17 pmAnyways, I get that in theory, he made the right wager, and also in practice it was the right wager, but I have a question for the vikings: could a wager of $11,399 (to stay above Jay's DJ score) or even $7,799 (to stay above Jay's score if he wagers at most $4,600 which is the right move for him) be justified? I just hate the thought of allowing the leader to win with a $0 wager when I could have stopped it (I would hate to find myself between 2/3 and 3/4 of the leaders total), I respect James for having the balls to hold himself to $1,399; I don't know if I could do it.
I hate second level thinking on Jeopardy because contestants are typically so sub-optimal when it comes to wagering. It is just useless. But in this case.....
This is why the best poker players always balance their ranges, if you always bet in the same manner, even if it's optimal, you can be exploited. James could have easily been exploited in FJ.
It would be pretty crazy for Emma to wager nothing, and she gave no impression that she was timid or unwilling to control her destiny. Also, she's a librarian and a student of Jeopardy!, and the category is about Shakespeare... Hello!
It may still be optimal for James to bet big if he believes 97% is his long-run FJ average. But I would guess it's lower. If it's more like 85%, he for sure needs to follow standard betting strategy, and his bet was the maximum recommended.
This is where all of the games are discussed.
I was mad when James lost, but I was especially livid after seeing that the FJ! round from his last game was leaked on YouTube that weekend before the episode aired. And even I wanted to see James break Ken Jennings' cash record in regular play. But oh well.kingskip wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:42 amI just hate he had to lose when he was so close to beating Ken Jennings cash earnings record. One or two more wins, he would have passed him. Even more unusual, his loss comes one day after the fifteenth anniversary of Ken’s first game and the fifth anniversary of Julia’s loss. Hopefully James will win the Tournament of Champions in November. Even better, I’d like to see another three month Ultimate Tournament of Champions with the two final games being James, Ken, and Brad.
However, James won the Tournament of Champions last month, and he's going to match up against Ken and Brad in January, but it won't be another super tournament (esp. because we already had the All-Star Games last season); and the event will air in primetime on ABC.