Wagering Suggestions factoring in 3rd? (J-Archive)

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LanceJ
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Wagering Suggestions factoring in 3rd? (J-Archive)

Post by LanceJ »

Hey folks, was just reviewing some games from this season and I noticed something counter-intuitive (to me) in the way j-archive calculates wagers. Unsure if I'm missing something (likely) or if it's not factoring in third place correctly. Check out http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=6103 .

Scores at the end of the Double Jeopardy! Round:
Kyle: $15,800
Emily: $12,000
Raymond: $4,200

J-archive's wagering suggestion is as follows:

Raymond: You can't really win on a Triple Stumper, so your best hope is if you're the only one to get Final right. Wager everything but a few dollars.
Emily: You'll want to wager $3,801, and you'll win the game if Kyle wagers enough and gets it wrong.
Kyle: Wager $8,201 to cover Emily.

I understand Kyle's suggestion, of course.

Raymond can double to $8,400, which covers Emily's recommended bet if she gets it wrong. (12000 - 3801 = 8199)

Emily actually wagered 3599. This doesn't cover a zero bet by Kyle, but does leave her at (12000 - 3599 = 8401), a dollar above Raymond's successful double. I think the chances of Raymond successfully doubling are MUCH higher than Kyle betting in the range of $0-$200, the only values the suggested scenario is better in.

I read the J-board thread for the game and multiple posts congratulated Emily on her wise FJ wager, so I'm wondering if there's an opportunity to improve the (nearly-flawless) j-archive algorithm? More likely, I'm missing something glaringly obvious and would love to have it pointed out. Thanks!
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Robert K S
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Re: Wagering Suggestions factoring in 3rd? (J-Archive)

Post by Robert K S »

The Archive's "algorithm" (a big tree of IF statements) was constructed ad hoc as new wagering scenarios were identified, so it's far from flawless. One day I'll re-write it from scratch to be more generalized, but that day has not yet come. For whatever reason, the wagering logic considers that in the three-quarters scenario, second doesn't need to cover against third when twice third is less than first plus one dollar, but I leave it to others to articulate/debate whether this is smart or should be re-thought.
LanceJ
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Re: Wagering Suggestions factoring in 3rd? (J-Archive)

Post by LanceJ »

Interesting! Appreciate the peek behind the curtain.

There's certainly something to be said for not wagering yourself into a scenario where you can solo-get and lose, I definitely understand how that's the absolute worst-case for some folks.
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