2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

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MarkBarrett
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2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by MarkBarrett » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:43 pm

A spreadsheet with stats for the 2019 ToC players:
Spoiler
Show
Image
Lots of numbers mean many ways to have something wrong so please let me know if I need to correct anything.

As is tradition I will sort the players into Gold, Silver or Bronze groups prior to the ToC taping.
Names within each group are sorted by surname.

Gold: Eric R. Backes, Emma Boettcher, Steven Grade, Josh Hill, James Holzhauer,
Silver: Francois Barcomb, Anneke Garcia, Kyle Jones, Lindsey Shultz, Rob Worman
Bronze: Gilbert Collins, Alan Dunn, Ryan Fenster, Dhruv Gaur, Rachel Lindgren

Comments:
No argument if someone wants a stronger metal for James as like Roger Craig’s year this could be the time for solo Platinum to be in play.

Eric lost his game 5 though it was still a strong performance other than the FJ! clue miss. If he had managed that fifth win that was within his reach he’d be a clear cut Gold.

Emma beat James and that has to count for something. Emma made the ToC field with respectable numbers and “only” winning 3 games is not enough for me to write her off.

Steven gets Gold for me as he had a stage presence of J! champ from the get-go.

Josh has the right skill set that lines up well to success on J! with buzzer reflexes and pop culture knowledge.

Francois was clearly the best player in his Teachers Tournament and seemed like he could have done as well in regular play.

Anneke deserved to make this field and it’s great the 15 was set in time to keep her in the mix. During her five games I was never convinced she had played her best game yet. With another chance perhaps she can really do well and I did consider Gold for her.

Kyle will make Gold for others who do such sorting and I completely understand as 7 wins plus the other stats do justify it. For me I during his run I never felt that extra excitement that I was seeing a super champ even though he reached superchamp status.

Lindsey gave me trouble for placement as she is the one (there is always one each ToC) when I consider all three groups. I settled for the middle as Bronze did not seem fair and Gold though tempting, also seemed incorrect.

Some of Rob’s stats indicate Bronze while I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt for his posted efforts about studying and the long amount of time to get better. If the J! powers do a top 5 separated for the QF round then his 6 wins could have him not playing James, Kyle, Josh or Ryan the first week.


To me Gilbert and Rachel were the easiest placements as both instantly went in Bronze. They are welcome to prove me wrong. Either could of course make the semis with a FJ! clue solve in the QF game. Finals? I would not bet on that as I expect them to play from trailing positions every game they are in.

Alan was my favorite player from S35 and I really wanted to put him higher than Bronze. I’m hopeful his 6/6 on FJ! clues can continue and that he can make the second week of play. I expect the powers to treat him as expendable and give him no favors with match-ups. No matter what happens nothing will take away the joy I got from Alan pulling out his needed 5th win.

Ryan Fenster. That guy. He is one of the more memorable characters the show has produced. More than once Ryan has demonstrated amazing comeback skills and of course his football “knowledge” is legendary. Ryan had split streaks that led for four wins and later three more. Nine games of experience can only help him in the ToC. I found it hard to ignore his trailing for the FJ! round in 5/9 of his games.

Dhruv gets Bronze because it’s easy to dismiss the College Champ for being too young and in over his head in the ToC. Dhruv’s 2/4 on the FJ! clues could be considered ¾ as he went for humor in a lock position in his last game.

Part of the early hype for the ToC in announcing the field was the potential for an Emma vs. James rematch. How to make that happen? The way to guarantee it is for them to meet in a QF match. There is history for players who were in the same regular play game not to play against each other in the QF round.

Semis? Just as unlikely although this could be the year to do it. Emma and James both making the finals? I would bet against it except for the fact fans want it and the J! people know it. Matchups can be nudged but James and Emma would still have to do the heavy lifting in the semis. Time will tell.

If the QF round has the five who won the most games separated then that is: James, Josh, Kyle, Ryan & Rob

I will predict James plays Alan or Gilbert & either Rachel or Lindsey for the QF round for what the powers see as sacrificial lambs. That’s fine as it’s more about getting the FJ! clue right. James played 33 games and plenty of players scored enough against him that doubling up in the FJ! round would likely be enough to make the semis.

Agenda item #2 getting Emma to the Semis: She won’t play James or the other women. I’ll predict Gilbert or Alan & Dhruv or Francois.

For QF5 I’ll predict guys who can chill all day and go with Steven & Kyle as two of the players.

For the overall winner the easy prediction is James will win and that is certainly possible. On the other hand history indicates the big dog can be beat to open up the results to other outcomes as well.

I’ll pick a finals for James, Rob (go JBoard member with the most history and posts here), and Anneke. 6 players did not win five games or more so I predict that someone with T, C, 4 or 3 status makes it to the end.

A pick of James, Josh and Emma may have more takers although I’ll pass on such dreams or Hoyle occurring.
Last edited by MarkBarrett on Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by threearruda » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:26 am

Thanks for your work on this, MB. I've had some thoughts on this for awhile, but nice to have the visuals and stats to help out. Sorry this is a bit longer than I'd hoped. :lol:

James is in my platinum tier. Josh, Eric, Emma and Lindsey are in gold on my list with Steven a very close #6.

In the spirit of fantasy football, I've got my eye on a few "bust" and "sleeper" candidates.

[*] SLEEPER: Ryan is in my silver tier because of his deep academic knowledge base plus his ability to close out games/get hot on the buzzer at the right times. “3 seeds” (he's the #3 game-money winner) have won four of the last five ToCs.
[*] SLEEPER: Rob more than makes up for low Coryats with his strategy (namely DD hunting/converting and optimal wagering). Add in two years to prep for ToC opponents and material for another advantage.
[*] SLEEPER: Aside from James, Dhruv is probably the best in this field at finding/converting DDs, and has had lots of time to prep.
[*] BUST: Josh is clearly gold, but looked a lot different in his last five games as compared to his first three. More recently on his Twitter, he alluded to the fact that he simply couldn’t keep up with James while watching from home - a troubling statement, I think.
[*] BUST: Kyle is a solid player with good buzzer speed and lots of ones in the "position" column, but I don’t think he has the top end knowledge base to advance far into this field.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Things to keep in mind RE: Quarterfinal Matchups...

[*] I bet the four women will be separated, as will our two tourney winners, and Rachel/Gilbert + James/Steven for having the same tape days.
[*]I’ll bet on James playing mid-week; pre-emptions for football happen in the Boston market (and surely others) every Friday and I’ll assume the show wants to take no chances having James or Emma bumped from a main TV station if they can help it.
[*] Emma I feel will draw the fifth of the superchamps (Rob) and a mid-lower level 5x champ (Gilbert is the best fit here) to give her the best chance to advance - I think (and hope) that she and James do not play until the finals. Both are good enough to get there on their own.
[*] Top seeds have played a tournament winner in their QF each ToC in this decade: I've got James and Francois playing, with Anneke/Rachel completing that trio.

James, Eric and Emma are in my finals. Picking James is the equivalent of picking Duke in March Madness, so I have to join #TeamEmma to win it all - and I think she can. Pulling for anyone in the field who’s been active on Twitter, Reddit or here (there are lots of them :P). Congrats and good luck to all players, can’t wait to see what happens!
Dumb college kid. Go BR!

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by heppm01 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:17 am

Could you explain the "Position" column please?

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by MarkBarrett » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:06 am

heppm01 wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:17 am
Could you explain the "Position" column please?
Position going into the FJ! round. 1 is 1st place, 2 is 2nd place and 3 is, wait for it...3rd place. L is for lock, a runaway. As you can see James had a lot of those.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by teapot37 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:16 am

MarkBarrett wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:06 am
heppm01 wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:17 am
Could you explain the "Position" column please?
Position going into the FJ! round. 1 is 1st place, 2 is 2nd place and 3 is, wait for it...3rd place. L is for lock, a runaway. As you can see James had a lot of those.
I think there's an extra position for Emma in your sheet. She should be 1+L+1+2.
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by MarkBarrett » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:37 am

teapot37 wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:16 am
MarkBarrett wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:06 am
heppm01 wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:17 am
Could you explain the "Position" column please?
Position going into the FJ! round. 1 is 1st place, 2 is 2nd place and 3 is, wait for it...3rd place. L is for lock, a runaway. As you can see James had a lot of those.
I think there's an extra position for Emma in your sheet. She should be 1+L+1+2.
Thank you. It's fixed.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by RobW » Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:07 pm

MarkBarrett wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:43 pm
A spreadsheet with stats for the 2019 ToC players:
Spoiler
Show
Image
Lots of numbers mean many ways to have something wrong so please let me know if I need to correct anything.

As is tradition I will sort the players into Gold, Silver or Bronze groups prior to the ToC taping.
Names within each group are sorted by surname.
...
I will only comment to say, it is at once exciting and surreal to read this. 😉
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by skrambler » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:11 pm

This is great, thanks for putting this together, Mark.

Another factor to consider when making predictions is a player's endurance: if their last game was taped later in the day and their numbers were way worse on that game, then it may be worth calculating their averages without that game in the mix. This may better predict their quarterfinal performance, with the endurance factor becoming more influencial if they make it to the final.
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by MattKnowles » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:05 pm

Are the QF match-ups randomly selected or do they have a seeding/placement system?

I would have put Alan Dunn higher than bronze. I think James should be a platinum. James doesn't have a lock because there are a lot of strong competitors but he should be the heavy favorite.

Are tickets for the taping available to the public?
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by teapot37 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:26 pm

MattKnowles wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:05 pm
Are the QF match-ups randomly selected or do they have a seeding/placement system?

I would have put Alan Dunn higher than bronze. I think James should be a platinum. James doesn't have a lock because there are a lot of strong competitors but he should be the heavy favorite.

Are tickets for the taping available to the public?
It's definitely not random. In my ToC, there were 4 5+ winners, and we were all in different matches (and the top-winning 4-timer was in the fifth). They also made sure anyone who played in the regular season wouldn't face off in the QF round.
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by finishemzoe » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:57 pm

Surprised this hasn't had any activity, especially given the new season. But nonetheless, I made my own tier list:

Diamond: James Holzhauer, Josh Hill, Emma Boettcher

Platinum: Eric R. Backes, Steven Grade, Francois Barcomb

Gold: Lindsey Shultz, Anneke Garcia, Kyle Jones

Silver: Rob Worman, Alan Dunn, Ryan Fenster

Bronze: Dhruv Gaur, Rachel Lindgren, Gilbert Collins

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by polaris » Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:21 pm

MarkBarrett wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:43 pm
Comments:
No argument if someone wants a stronger metal for James as like Roger Craig’s year this could be the time for solo Platinum to be in play.
If I may be so bold, I'd suggest Platinum is appropriate level for Holzhauer. I will add the caveat I am a bigtime James stan but even so.

I am not well-versed in this message board or your methodology, however, I think that, given that Roger Craig was Platinum (and let me ask you: was that the default, or did someone convince you to make the change?) it is necessary to make Holzhauer Platinum too. He is better in every statistical category! In fact, I would imagine that during any consecutive seven games he had, he was better in every category. In fact, if you take his worst seven games, I still imagine that they would look at worst comparable to Craig's run (if nothing else, the number of wrong FJs would be the same).

Even if you use a comparison-to-field metric, I can't think of much of an argument that anyone this year besides James is any better than Tom Nissley - honestly, going into their ToC final, I don't think it was obvious that Roger was the favourite - and I think his epic daily-quadruple move makes the gap seem bigger than it was. Honestly, besides the Alex Jacob/Matt Jackson final, I don't think there was a stronger group of two people in any ToC final in recent memory. In all time, the Jerome/Leszek one comes to mind and there's probably others.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by John Boy » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:57 pm

I predict the ToC will present several clues that leave me standing dumbstruck and open-mouth and wondering WTF???

…..just like my ordinary daily life.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by Philliesfan02 » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:55 am

In order of strength

James: Obviously.
Josh: A clear number 2 in my opinion. He was dominant early in his run but fell victim to fatigue.
Eric: Second highest average coryat in the field speaks for itself.
Emma: Beating James is super impressive. She could probably beat anyone with a favorable set of categories.
Francois: So dominant in his tournament i couldn't put him lower than this.
Lindsey: Third fastest player on the buzzer in the field. The noise is a bit distracting but it works fo
Steven: Not quite as consistent as some of the above players but also very fast on the buzzer.
Kyle: More consistent but slower on the buzzer than Steven.
Ryan: My favorite player. The harder boards will favor him, and if he can dial back on the guessing he could be very dangerous.
Anneke: Close call between her and Ryan but Ryan's 8/9 record in Final (and they weren't easy clues either) gives him the edge.

Last 5 players coming later today.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by reddpen » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:37 pm

finishemzoe wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:57 pm
Surprised this hasn't had any activity, especially given the new season. But nonetheless, I made my own tier list:

Diamond: James Holzhauer, Josh Hill, Emma Boettcher

Platinum: Eric R. Backes, Steven Grade, Francois Barcomb

Gold: Lindsey Shultz, Anneke Garcia, Kyle Jones

Silver: Rob Worman, Alan Dunn, Ryan Fenster

Bronze: Dhruv Gaur, Rachel Lindgren, Gilbert Collins
This thread just begs for bumping now that the semis are set. With the caveat that I didn't make any predictions for others to mock--owing to not having seen more than half of these folks play before--I find it amusing that your Bronze group is the only one from which all advanced.

I still like James to win the thing, but I've always been impressed with Francois (saw his TT wins), and several others--in particular Dhruv, Emma, and Lindsey--look solid to me as well. Can't wait to see the semifinal matchups.

So glad TPTB scheduled this ToC on the heels of the World Series.
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by finishemzoe » Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:33 am

reddpen wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:37 pm
finishemzoe wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:57 pm
Surprised this hasn't had any activity, especially given the new season. But nonetheless, I made my own tier list:

Diamond: James Holzhauer, Josh Hill, Emma Boettcher

Platinum: Eric R. Backes, Steven Grade, Francois Barcomb

Gold: Lindsey Shultz, Anneke Garcia, Kyle Jones

Silver: Rob Worman, Alan Dunn, Ryan Fenster

Bronze: Dhruv Gaur, Rachel Lindgren, Gilbert Collins
This thread just begs for bumping now that the semis are set. With the caveat that I didn't make any predictions for others to mock--owing to not having seen more than half of these folks play before--I find it amusing that your Bronze group is the only one from which all advanced.

I still like James to win the thing, but I've always been impressed with Francois (saw his TT wins), and several others--in particular Dhruv, Emma, and Lindsey--look solid to me as well. Can't wait to see the semifinal matchups.

So glad TPTB scheduled this ToC on the heels of the World Series.
Lol yeah I got annihilated in my predictions. Only 5/9 that I predicted to advance based on QF matchups (James, Emma, Francois, Steven, Rachel) actually advanced. Rob, Anneke, Eric, and Josh were the other four.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:55 pm

finishemzoe wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:33 am
Lol yeah I got annihilated in my predictions. Only 5/9 that I predicted to advance based on QF matchups (James, Emma, Francois, Steven, Rachel) actually advanced. Rob, Anneke, Eric, and Josh were the other four.
5/9 for me also (James, Emma, Steven, Kyle, Lindsey). The other four were all the same as yours.
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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by Linear Gnome » Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:13 pm

I didn't make predictions, but I'm disappointed that Rob and Josh didn't make it into the semis. I was in the studio for Josh's first three games, and Rob just seems like a cool guy (in addition to being an excellent player).

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by opusthepenguin » Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:59 pm

Linear Gnome wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:13 pm
I didn't make predictions, but I'm disappointed that Rob and Josh didn't make it into the semis. I was in the studio for Josh's first three games, and Rob just seems like a cool guy (in addition to being an excellent player).
Definitely. And Rob's coolness came through in defeat as well as in victory. True of Ryan Fenster as well.

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Re: 2019 ToC Predictions & Comments

Post by cthulhu » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:25 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:59 pm
Linear Gnome wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:13 pm
I didn't make predictions, but I'm disappointed that Rob and Josh didn't make it into the semis. I was in the studio for Josh's first three games, and Rob just seems like a cool guy (in addition to being an excellent player).
Definitely. And Rob's coolness came through in defeat as well as in victory. True of Ryan Fenster as well.
Agree about Rob, but Ryan totally rubs me the wrong way. Francois is coolly professional and I was glad to see him advance instead of Ryan. Enthusiasm is great, but Ryan seems a bit...calculated...to me :shock:

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