GOAT Tournament Day 3 (1/9/20) Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

[billiej]

On James’s DD miss, I spent most of the time thinking the colors referred to the state of Florida and not Florida State, the school. Had to pivot really quickly to get to birthstones that are kind of red and then garnet.

Rather embarrassingly, I came up with ruby, despite garnet being MY FREAKIN' BIRTHSTONE!!

[Austin Powers]

The daily double was phrased a little oddly. I have attended actual football games at the actual Doak Campbell Stadium and I had to read the question twice before I was able to pick up on what they wanted.

[twelvefootboy]

I suppose it was obvious to me, a former Florida State student, and current resident of Tallahassee, but I was shocked when James, the sports-bettor he is, did not know our colors are Garnet and Gold. We may be looking at a different champion today if he did...

Yeah, I'm what you would call "barely knowledgeable" about college sports in general, but the pairing of Garnet & Gold was somewhere in the back of my brain and managed to come forth.

...

I loved that clue with the three way TOM (sports, abrasives, birthstone) but thought it was too easy. Even more I enjoyed the facial contortions as James tried to solve it but I just thought he was mugging for dramatic effect. Great clue again by the writers.

Garnet has always been one of my favorite overachievers for making the semi-precious gemstone list when it's usually just a dirty little mineral. It also is responsible for the coolest name for lasers, the YAG laser (Yttrium Aluminum Garnet - usually doped with Neodymium).
Coincidentally, I just learned last week that humans have been enslaving ants in the garnet mines. I'm sure the ants can't wait for the robot uprising to free them . It will be appropriate if they bust our asses with some YAG based phasers set to liquify .

Spoiler

Show

https://geology.com/gemstones/anthill-garnet/
(excerpt - this is a great page to look at)

They are called "ant hill garnets" because they are found on and around the margins of ant hills. The ants encounter the garnets while excavating their underground passages. The ants haul the stones to the surface and discard them. The rain washes the garnets clean and moves them down the flank of the ant hill, where they can accumulate in large numbers. This concentrates the little gems and makes them easy for people to collect. Their brilliant luster and red color contrasts strongly with the surrounding soil.

[This Is Kirk!]

James Madison as part of a FJ answer on day two and then the Democratic-Republicans on day three? Come on, writers, lets show a little more range!

[This Is Kirk!]

I suppose it was obvious to me, a former Florida State student, and current resident of Tallahassee, but I was shocked when James, the sports-bettor he is, did not know our colors are Garnet and Gold. We may be looking at a different champion today if he did...

I messed that one up, too. I guess I was thinking they were trying to tell us it was a color we might associate with the State of Florida, not necessarily Florida State University, so said citrine.

[billiej]

James Madison as part of a FJ answer on day two and then the Democratic-Republicans on day three? Come on, writers, lets show a little more range!

At the very least, it's hammered home that I really need to brush up on my political history. I matched Ken on the incorrect response to the former FJ. As for the latter, I immediately thought of Federalist , then did a 50-50 on....Whig and Democratic-Republican.

[This Is Kirk!]

James Madison as part of a FJ answer on day two and then the Democratic-Republicans on day three? Come on, writers, lets show a little more range!

At the very least, it's hammered home that I really need to brush up on my political history. I matched Ken on the incorrect response to the former FJ. As for the latter, I immediately thought of Federalist , then did a 50-50 on....Whig and Democratic-Republican.

I biffed that one, too. Federalist is what I thought of first and could only think of James Adams as a Fed President, but I thought of the Democratic-Republicans too late to change.

[SenseiCAY]

Got Garnet, and a couple of other triple stumpers, but...DAMN...Ken dropping the hammer in FJ in the first game...I just about fell out of my chair on that bet. Not surprised he was confident in the category, but if that wasn't a statement...

[gnash]

James Madison as part of a FJ answer on day two and then the Democratic-Republicans on day three? Come on, writers, lets show a little more range!

At the very least, it's hammered home that I really need to brush up on my political history. I matched Ken on the incorrect response to the former FJ. As for the latter, I immediately thought of Federalist , then did a 50-50 on....Whig and Democratic-Republican.

I biffed that one, too. Federalist is what I thought of first and could only think of James Adams as a Fed President, but I thought of the Democratic-Republicans too late to change.

I missed both FJs by not thinking beyond the first response that came to me. Del Toro for Lee, and Federalist for Democratic-Republican.

[gnash]

Looks like Brad will finally "lose to a human being" by the time this tournament is done. How many matches are there in total?

I don't think there's any way to say he hasn't lost to a human being... three times.

This is not like "losing" a leg of a 2-day or 3-day total-point match, especially when it's not the first leg. Each of these matches counts indelibly. Yes, he can still win the tournament (though it's only 2/27 chance even assuming they are evenly matched, which seems increasingly unlikely), but he has lost the first three matches.

[gnash]

I think the most notable takeaway from the third match is that Ken has adopted James's (objectively correct) betting strategy with full success, while James has adopted Ken's risky buzzing with far less success. Now, I'm on record saying that James may have buzzed too conservatively in his regular run (too many games with 0 incorrect suggest he probably didn't buzz in on some clues he knew), but Ken's "what the hell, I'll buzz in and figure it out" approach has been kind of the opposite extreme. It may not be bad for Ken with his specific recall pattern, but is doubtful as a general recommendation. I have a feeling that James did not systematically prepare to modify his trigger level, but only decided to be more aggressive when he saw that Ken was outbuzzing him (AND did not leave money on the table). But then he hasn't gauged it to his optimal comfort as he's done with other aspects of the game.

In other words, if Ken wins the GOAT title, it will be because Ken outjamesed James and James couldn't outken Ken.

[floridagator]

Given the ratings, ABC will be very disappointed if Ken wraps it up Tuesday night.

My PVR is showing four games on the schedule for next week. Should that be taken to mean that this tournament is going to the maximum seven games? Or is that merely a contingency in case it does, like scheduling the World Series?

[gnash]

Updated probabilities: under the "totally random outcome, evenly matched players" assumption, Ken is now a strong favorite to win the tournament (19/27, or about 70%), James is at 6/27 (22%), and Brad at 2/27 (a little over 7%).

How credible is that assumption? I think for Ken and James, it seems very plausible that they are as evenly matched as can be. By far the most important consideration now is the psychological effect their current position will have on them, and nobody can predict that. Brad, on the other hand, seems off, both on buzzer speed and on concentration/recall. Now, he's had bad streaks before, and came back quickly and strongly, but those past bad streaks lasted at most one round. Now it's 3 double matches - 12 rounds, of which he was competitive with the other two guys in maybe 3, and superior in none. He just can't seem to get in the zone and stay there.

[jeopardyfan939]

Updated probabilities: under the "totally random outcome, evenly matched players" assumption, Ken is now a strong favorite to win the tournament (19/27, or about 70%), James is at 6/27 (22%), and Brad at 2/27 (a little over 7%).

How credible is that assumption? I think for Ken and James, it seems very plausible that they are as evenly matched as can be. By far the most important consideration now is the psychological effect their current position will have on them, and nobody can predict that. Brad, on the other hand, seems off, both on buzzer speed and on concentration/recall. Now, he's had bad streaks before, and came back quickly and strongly, but those past bad streaks lasted at most one round. Now it's 3 double matches - 12 rounds, of which he was competitive with the other two guys in maybe 3, and superior in none. He just can't seem to get in the zone and stay there.

I hope James can rebound next Tuesday and even the series up at 2-2-0. But hey, if Ken wins GOAT, he reclaims the game show record from Brad. And Ken also has a good sense of humor (especially when he did the famous all-in push when going all-in on a daily double).

[gnash]

Updated probabilities: under the "totally random outcome, evenly matched players" assumption, Ken is now a strong favorite to win the tournament (19/27, or about 70%), James is at 6/27 (22%), and Brad at 2/27 (a little over 7%).

How credible is that assumption? I think for Ken and James, it seems very plausible that they are as evenly matched as can be. By far the most important consideration now is the psychological effect their current position will have on them, and nobody can predict that. Brad, on the other hand, seems off, both on buzzer speed and on concentration/recall. Now, he's had bad streaks before, and came back quickly and strongly, but those past bad streaks lasted at most one round. Now it's 3 double matches - 12 rounds, of which he was competitive with the other two guys in maybe 3, and superior in none. He just can't seem to get in the zone and stay there.

I hope James can rebound next Tuesday and even the series up at 2-2-0. But hey, if Ken wins GOAT, he reclaims the game show record from Brad. And Ken also has a good sense of humor (especially when he did the famous all-in push when going all-in on a daily double).

I'm rooting for Ken, but I'd hate to see Brad completely shut out. Ken winning 3-1-1 would be the most satisfactory outcome for me. But I'll be happy as long as they keep the amazing level of play until the end.

[Bigdogstalfos]

Given the ratings, ABC will be very disappointed if Ken wraps it up Tuesday night.

My PVR is showing four games on the schedule for next week. Should that be taken to mean that this tournament is going to the maximum seven games? Or is that merely a contingency in case it does, like scheduling the World Series?

I assume it’s just filling in spots like a playoff series so there aren’t blocks of “To Be Announced.”

[cinemaniax7]

On James’s DD miss, I spent most of the time thinking the colors referred to the state of Florida and not Florida State, the school. Had to pivot really quickly to get to birthstones that are kind of red and then garnet.

My thinking exactly! Sometimes the all-caps J! font creates unintended complications for those of us playing the clues.

I think the most notable takeaway from the third match is that Ken has adopted James's (objectively correct) betting strategy with full success, while James has adopted Ken's risky buzzing with far less success. Now, I'm on record saying that James may have buzzed too conservatively in his regular run (too many games with 0 incorrect suggest he probably didn't buzz in on some clues he knew), but Ken's "what the hell, I'll buzz in and figure it out" approach has been kind of the opposite extreme. It may not be bad for Ken with his specific recall pattern, but is doubtful as a general recommendation. I have a feeling that James did not systematically prepare to modify his trigger level, but only decided to be more aggressive when he saw that Ken was outbuzzing him (AND did not leave money on the table). But then he hasn't gauged it to his optimal comfort as he's done with other aspects of the game.

In other words, if Ken wins the GOAT title, it will be because Ken outjamesed James and James couldn't outken Ken.

This is a nice analysis, Gnash.

[Roadgeek Adam]

Ratings are in, 15.4 million watched Day 3's match. Second straight jump, now more ratings than NBC/FOX/CBS combined in timeslot.

[Newhausen]

James Madison as part of a FJ answer on day two and then the Democratic-Republicans on day three? Come on, writers, lets show a little more range!

At the very least, it's hammered home that I really need to brush up on my political history. I matched Ken on the incorrect response to the former FJ. As for the latter, I immediately thought of Federalist , then did a 50-50 on....Whig and Democratic-Republican.

I biffed that one, too. Federalist is what I thought of first and could only think of James Adams as a Fed President, but I thought of the Democratic-Republicans too late to change.

Same here despite my love for Hamilton. As soon as the answer was revealed, though, I couldn't help but say to myself "mother-------- Democratic-Republicans!"

[Robert K S]

Nope, he just drifted away I suppose. Hasn't been on in nearly two years. I can't say I'm unhappy about that.

I mean... should we check obits?