Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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floridagator
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Re: Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:24 am

The guaranteed 1000 and 2000 seem to have the effect of creating a more National contestant pool than was the case before. In the early years of the syndicated Jeopardy!, it was not at all unusual for all three contestants to be from the west side of LA, and they would get introduced as being originally from such and such. Now it's quite rare to have three contestants from LA. So people who are applying to be contestants have taken the hint of the thousand dollar minimum for being on the show.
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ParrotRob
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Re: Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by ParrotRob » Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:04 pm

Well that's why I specifically said a scenario where I can ONLY win with a correct answer coupled by a leader's miss. Basically, the scenario between a lock-row and the 2/3 breakpoint.

Case in point: leader has $20k, I have $13k, third place has $5k. Assuming the leader wagers the standard $6001, I MUST get FJ! correct and hope she misses. I can wager as little as $1k and win with a right answer and leader miss, while still protecting 2nd. In fact, "protect second place" conventional wisdom says to wager between $1000 and $2999.
HOWEVER - If I win, I'm winning, at most, $15,999, and if I lose I'm guaranteed $2000 for second.
On the other hand, if I push all-in, I risk dropping to third (at a cost of $1000), but I now stand to win $26,000 instead of $15,999.
In other words, I'm sacrificing a potential $10000 payout to "protect" $1000. Is it really worth it?

Assuming random knowledge, categories and equal probability of outcomes, if I wager all-in, I'll win 26k 1 of 4 games, finish second 1 of 4, and finish third twice in four, with a $7.5k average expected return.
On the other hand, if I bet to preserve second ($2999), I'll win 1/4 with $15999, and finish second three of four times with $2000 - an average return of $5.5k. To me that's a no-brainer.
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BigDaddyMatty
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Re: Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by BigDaddyMatty » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:30 am

Coryat: 41,600
51 R/2 W
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: grocery stores, Black Beauty

Some of you may know that my family and I live a somewhat Bohemian lifestyle, having no real permanent home. At the beginning of January, we moved to a new city and state where we will be spending (at least) the next several months. Given that I am currently in the pool and am looking for some way to overcome the demographic reality of being a middle-aged white male, I have kicked around the idea of contacting the contestant coordinators and updating my "hometown," since my current home is one that is severely underrepresented on J!

Where am I living, you might ask. Where is this place that would almost certainly boost my chances of getting on the show?

Kapolei, Hawaii.

Welp.
Sprinkles are for winners.

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