Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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BrigadierSolo13
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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by BrigadierSolo13 »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:49 pm
Golf wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 9:35 pm
BrigadierSolo13 wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 8:07 pm
I know I'm not alone in thinking this, but these FJ wagers make absolutely no sense in the tournament format and it's driving me nuts.

How do Jenna and Lauren, as well as a few others before them this week, not realize that betting it all is the only option, ESPECIALLY when first place is a lock? Full credit to Katie on Tuesday for being the only one so far to wager properly, and as of now, it does appear she will be rewarded for it.
Well, it happens in every tournament so you shouldn’t be too surprised. It’s no different from regular season games, most contestants don’t properly prepare and learn about wagering.

But no, you’re not alone in your thinking.
Do you agree that "betting it all is the only option" for contestants going into FJ in second and third place in a tournament quarterfinal?
Personally, I would calculate the average winnings for non-automatic semifinalists, which I'll call A, as well as the average for the 4th highest totals for non-automatic semifinalists (i.e. the last man/woman in), which I'll call B.

If my total going into FJ is less than B, I bet it all.
If my total falls between A and B, I probably play conservative. If I'm closer to B and feel confident in the FJ category, I bet it all and not risk just missing out.
If my total is above A, I just stay safely above A.

Whether I'm first, second, or third doesn't matter.

EDIT: The one exception is if I have less than B, but am in first place. Then I bet the standard $1 more than second place's double up, that way I can still win on a triple stumper, depending on third place.

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

Lefty wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:43 pm
talkingaway wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 9:02 pm

FJ! was an instawrite, but I just didn't feel comfortable. Even the cadence of "Fe fi fo fum" didn't seem to go along with the next line...but I put it down as a WECIB. Characters who get eaten are basically Jack and Little Red Riding Hood...incidentally, both characters in Sondheim's Into the Woods.
Hansel and Gretel are another one (or two). "Fairy tales" essentially are the genre of children as food.
Soylent Green was a fairy tale?

(Yes, I'm aware they didn't use children in it.)

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

BrigadierSolo13 wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 11:41 pm
Personally, I would calculate the average winnings for non-automatic semifinalists, which I'll call A, as well as the average for the 4th highest totals for non-automatic semifinalists (i.e. the last man/woman in), which I'll call B.

If my total going into FJ is less than B, I bet it all.
If my total falls between A and B, I probably play conservative. If I'm closer to B and feel confident in the FJ category, I bet it all and not risk just missing out.
If my total is above A, I just stay safely above A.

Whether I'm first, second, or third doesn't matter.

EDIT: The one exception is if I have less than B, but am in first place. Then I bet the standard $1 more than second place's double up, that way I can still win on a triple stumper, depending on third place.
That's a little more nuanced than saying their only option is to bet it all, yeah? So A=?. B=?. I think my B wouldn't be a single number but an upper and lower bound where the number I would increase to raises my odds more than the number I would decrease to lowers them. It would take some work to suss out rules of thumb that I could take into the tournament. But I'm comfortable with that kind of work. I don't blame the teachers for not having that level of proficiency.

I think the bets so far have been decent. My impression is that Teacher Tournament wildcards tend to be on the high side. If that's so, I agree that the teachers probably aren't doing themselves any favors by holding back a few thousand. Dropping to $2000 or so may not be effectively different than dropping out. In non-teachers tournaments, though, we've had some surprisingly low wildcards at times. Sometimes it's worth keeping a few bucks.

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Foretopman »

talkingaway wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 9:02 pm
I precalled "bottle of rum", but as the category name after YO HO HO.
Same here :)

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

Foretopman wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:01 am
talkingaway wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 9:02 pm
I precalled "bottle of rum", but as the category name after YO HO HO.
Same here :)
Ditto. They really should have made the category YO HO YO HO if they wanted to follow it up with A WRITER'S LIFE and FORM "E".

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by teapot37 »

There was a moment, right at the beginning of DJ, where Lauren had -$400 and correctly answered a $400 clue. Her posted score, however, got moved to -$800! By the next time they showed the scores, they realized what had happened and her score was listed as $0.

Not sure I like that Alex called Will an automatic semifinalist at the end of DJ, before any Final wagers had been made. Yeah, that's probably going to be true, but don't point that out; Will could have made a bone-headed wager if he hadn't been reminded.
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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

teapot37 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:16 am
Not sure I like that Alex called Will an automatic semifinalist at the end of DJ, before any Final wagers had been made. Yeah, that's probably going to be true, but don't point that out; Will could have made a bone-headed wager if he hadn't been reminded.
It's part of the unofficial long-established rules, I guess. Alex gets to point out when a contestant has a runaway if he feels like it. Like you, I worry that this could affect wagering decisions by any contestant who hasn't understood the situation. In this game I don't think it's a big worry, though. Will's opponents obviously have less than $10000 and Will has more than double $10000. The runaway is obvious and I doubt Alex affected the outcome. I get more concerned when, say, first place has $15400 and second place has $7600. Leave it alone and let the contestants figure out what's happening in that case.

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by threearruda »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 8:49 am

I think the bets so far have been decent.
I agree with your take here, opus. I think those who have issues with wagering this week are ignoring the fact that teachers wildcards are actually on the lower side, historically (around $10k on average), and that these FJs have not been overly difficult so far, leading to the higher scores we've seen.

Only twice in the previous nine teachers tournaments have the wildcard numbers been this high. Cutoffs have been quite low in recent years, with less than 10k being more than enough to advance in three out of the previous five iterations.

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 8:49 am

I think the bets so far have been decent.
threearruda wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:52 am
I agree with your take here, opus. I think those who have issues with wagering this week are ignoring the fact that teachers wildcards are actually on the lower side, historically (around $10k on average), and that these FJs have not been overly difficult so far, leading to the higher scores we've seen.

Only twice in the previous nine teachers tournaments have the wildcard numbers been this high. Cutoffs have been quite low in recent years, with less than 10k being more than enough to advance in three out of the previous five iterations.
Regardless of what the average cutoffs usually are, do you think the following scores make it to the SF's?

$1500
$5198
$1199
$6399

Through this game, one non-winner wagered everything and one was unable to play FJ. The above four scores are/were the scores the other four contestants would have given an incorrect FJ response. So if you believe these scores have next to no chance to advance, why not wager everything?

Furthermore, why guess on what it takes to advance? Going into FJ, if you think you've attained the necessary number, then wager nothing. Otherwise, wager everything. It's silly to to try to make some in between wager to maybe make it on the high side but perhaps to squeak in on the low side. It's no different than a normal game, contestants want to have a chance for as long as they can, even if that means reducing their winnings chances.

But I have always said that this scenario in QF games is the toughest wagering decision that any Jeopardy contestant has to make. If you don't have a lock, guessing sucks.

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by talkingaway »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:32 am
teapot37 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:16 am
Not sure I like that Alex called Will an automatic semifinalist at the end of DJ, before any Final wagers had been made. Yeah, that's probably going to be true, but don't point that out; Will could have made a bone-headed wager if he hadn't been reminded.
It's part of the unofficial long-established rules, I guess. Alex gets to point out when a contestant has a runaway if he feels like it. Like you, I worry that this could affect wagering decisions by any contestant who hasn't understood the situation. In this game I don't think it's a big worry, though. Will's opponents obviously have less than $10000 and Will has more than double $10000. The runaway is obvious and I doubt Alex affected the outcome. I get more concerned when, say, first place has $15400 and second place has $7600. Leave it alone and let the contestants figure out what's happening in that case.
I somewhat agree - I'd prefer it if Alex always pointed out runaways 100% of the time, so that it's consistent. And, who knows, maybe he does and it gets edited out. Maybe if there IS a runaway, the contestant wranglers we see in the "stay tuned for FJ!" bumper congratulate the presumptive winner when they're primping the contestants during the 2-3 minutes of downtime.

Granted, you could also argue that when it's obvious (ie 15000 vs 2000 vs 1000) that he DOESN'T need to point it out - I think even the arithmophobe who steadfastly refuses to study FJ! wagering can figure it out. Although game #2 in the archive might argue otherwise, I think we've advanced since the days when "Apple" meant "Apple //c".

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey »

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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:32 am
teapot37 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:16 am
Not sure I like that Alex called Will an automatic semifinalist at the end of DJ, before any Final wagers had been made. Yeah, that's probably going to be true, but don't point that out; Will could have made a bone-headed wager if he hadn't been reminded.
It's part of the unofficial long-established rules, I guess. Alex gets to point out when a contestant has a runaway if he feels like it. Like you, I worry that this could affect wagering decisions by any contestant who hasn't understood the situation. In this game I don't think it's a big worry, though. Will's opponents obviously have less than $10000 and Will has more than double $10000. The runaway is obvious and I doubt Alex affected the outcome. I get more concerned when, say, first place has $15400 and second place has $7600. Leave it alone and let the contestants figure out what's happening in that case.
Mega Dittos, dudes. It seems that if Will were in fact an automatic semi-finalist, as Alex declared at the end of Double Jeopardy, then he shouldn't have competed in Final Jeopardy at all.
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Re: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MTGcollegestudent »

Oh wow...Jenna probably is regretting for not buzzing in on the last clue because by doing so, Will made this a runaway game and making him automatically a semifinalist.

Will definitely didn't build a solid enough lead heading into DJ! and left the door open for Jenna to take the opportunity to get back into the game. Unfortunately, couldn't capitalize upon that, as Will continued to dominate and put the game out of reach. After scoring the first 6 of 7 clues, it was pretty much game over for Jenna, since she was faced a buzzing drought that lasted about 18 clues spanning from the end of the first round and into DJ!

However, both Jenna and Lauren didn't back down, considering that both got an easy FJ! that allowed them a chance to secure hope of a wildcard spot. Jenna's odds may look good for her, and Lauren, she's gotta hope somebody messes up FJ! and doesn't surpass her.
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