Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Bamaman
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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

triviawayne wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm
all i could come up with is daredevil for the final.

Kristen put her win at risk with that bet.

Alex: Kevin still has a chance for a sixth win.

Bamaman: Only if Kristen makes a really bad bet.

Then she goes and does just that. In Kevin’s spot I might have bet it all to maximize my chances of sneaking in a win. Especially if I already won five games and a bunch of money. Protecting second place isn’t worth an extra $1000 when you already have over $100,000 coming your way.

Nothing on FJ. Guessed self-destructive.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator »

Rackme32 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:55 pm
I figured Billboard 2020 was a sure 0-fer for me, but guessed Eminem correctly simply based on the fact he's a famous Detroit rapper. Even though I got lucky once there, I'd rather not see any recent pop-culture silliness, EVER.

I got that one and Roxanne, as neither really required knowledge of the 2020 song.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

There was once an FJ where the correct response was oxygen. Someone got it at the last second and just had “ What is O?” and they took it because O is the chemical symbol for oxygen. Alex said if they had time to include one more letter it would have been scored incorrect.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey »

58 R
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Wood, Lost in Space, Bodice, (Gin), Prison Escape, International Criminal Court, Pretty Boy Floyd, August Wilson, Scotland, (Sikhism), Triple Entente, Bronx, The Glass Menagerie
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mas3cf
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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by mas3cf »

econgator wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:47 pm
Rackme32 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:55 pm
I figured Billboard 2020 was a sure 0-fer for me, but guessed Eminem correctly simply based on the fact he's a famous Detroit rapper. Even though I got lucky once there, I'd rather not see any recent pop-culture silliness, EVER.

I got that one and Roxanne, as neither really required knowledge of the 2020 song.

I got those ones plus The Weeknd. I say this as someone who has zero clue about the music of the 21st century and finds most of it utterly unlistenable.... The Weeknd actually has some pretty good songs. In particular, the one they asked about, "Blinding Lights" is one you could groove to if you're into 80s stuff.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett »

mas3cf wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 pm
econgator wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:47 pm
Rackme32 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:55 pm
I figured Billboard 2020 was a sure 0-fer for me, but guessed Eminem correctly simply based on the fact he's a famous Detroit rapper. Even though I got lucky once there, I'd rather not see any recent pop-culture silliness, EVER.

I got that one and Roxanne, as neither really required knowledge of the 2020 song.

I got those ones plus The Weeknd. I say this as someone who has zero clue about the music of the 21st century and finds most of it utterly unlistenable.... The Weeknd actually has some pretty good songs. In particular, the one they asked about, "Blinding Lights" is one you could groove to if you're into 80s stuff.
Today was my first time hearing "Blinding Lights" and it goes good with this video instead of the official one with over 200m views: https://youtu.be/BU7-Pxwe6Gc?t=27

I had the song going on one browser while watching the GTA video muted on a different one.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by morbeedo »

+1 Type A (but wait, "type" is in the clue, what am I missing?)

Well, of course they avoided my wheelhouse category like the PLAY-gue :cry:

+1 Gin??? I said absinthe, knowing it was wrong

I got Lost in Space and Sikhism but probably took too much time on both

The champ imploded but he locked up his spot in the TOC. Good for him!

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by goongas »

morbeedo wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:04 pm
+1 Type A (but wait, "type" is in the clue, what am I missing?)

Well, of course they avoided my wheelhouse category like the PLAY-gue :cry:

+1 Gin??? I said absinthe, knowing it was wrong

I got Lost in Space and Sikhism but probably took too much time on both

The champ imploded but he locked up his spot in the TOC. Good for him!
The theater categories are the ones that often go last, even though the J! canon for American plays is fairly limited. You can read a normal length play in about two hours, but isn't even necessary to do so for J!

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

Boo, hiss, everyone who missed Walt Disney's favorite song

It's a good thing they don't let you buzz in early or I'd've negged with Dillinger as soon as the "gun" graphic appeared

Dumb streak breaker final...was up to 13.
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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

Bamaman wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:42 pm
triviawayne wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm
all i could come up with is daredevil for the final.

Kristen put her win at risk with that bet.

Alex: Kevin still has a chance for a sixth win.

Bamaman: Only if Kristen makes a really bad bet.

Then she goes and does just that. In Kevin’s spot I might have bet it all to maximize my chances of sneaking in a win.
Would that really maximize your chances though? You're giving up all possibility of winning on a TS. I'd say $799 is the optimal bet. That leaves him with $1201 on a miss, $2 ahead of Daniel if Daniel makes the shutout bet, which he did. (The extra dollar is to stay ahead even if Daniel bet to tie.) If Kevin bets more than $801 he has to get FJ right to win. Since a TS is more likely than a sole get, that cuts off the most probable path to victory.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

Hard to say because there is no way to predict Kristen’s bet. Games won is also a factor. In his spot, I am already in the TOC. So I might bet where both players get at least $2000 if I am wrong. Category is also a factor.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

I wonder if Kristin recognized that if Kevin wagered to stay ahead of Daniel, he wouldn't score more than $2,800, and therefore subtracted that from her score to get $8,600; then knowing she wanted to leave herself more than $2,800, added $100 to her wager instead of subtracting it. We've seen similar mistakes made on wagers.
Last edited by seaborgium on Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

seaborgium wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:51 am
I wonder if Kristin recognized that if Keith wagered to stay ahead of Daniel, he wouldn't score more than $2,800, and therefore subtracted that from her score to get $8,600; then knowing she wanted to leave herself more than $2,800, added $100 to her wager instead of subtracting it. We've seen similar mistakes made on wagers.
That could explain it. I did wonder why Kristin wagered just enough to lose against a savvy bet and a get by Kevin. (You said Keith, but I assume that's who you mean.) Normally I'd just chalk it up to contestants not knowing how to wager. But $8700 seems non-random somehow.
Spoiler
This theory is also consistent with Friday's game where Kristin wagered to tie on a $0 bet from Aaron. She may have realized her mistake after Game 1 and decided she wasn't in a mental state to decide correctly whether she should add or subtract a little from her wager.

Then again, it's just as likely we're reading way more into this than is there.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:17 am
(You said Keith, but I assume that's who you mean.)
I've corrected myself multiple times this week doing that. This one slipped through. Edited.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by teapot37 »

I knew there was something in this game that bothered me besides the final.

Accuracy and precision are similar yet quite distinct concepts.

Accuracy means that you are always in the general vicinity of what you are aiming at. Imagine you are throwing at a dartboard and trying to hit the bullseye; sometimes you hit it, sometimes you are in the next ring out, and sometimes you are in the inside of the other 20 wedges - you're generally pretty close, never far off, but not always right on where you are aiming for.

Precision means that whenever you throw the dart, you always hit the same place. You may be intending to hit the bullseye, but every time you throw, you hit the triple-twenty. EVERY time.
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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

teapot37 wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:01 am
I knew there was something in this game that bothered me besides the final.

Accuracy and precision are similar yet quite distinct concepts.

Accuracy means that you are always in the general vicinity of what you are aiming at. Imagine you are throwing at a dartboard and trying to hit the bullseye; sometimes you hit it, sometimes you are in the next ring out, and sometimes you are in the inside of the other 20 wedges - you're generally pretty close, never far off, but not always right on where you are aiming for.

Precision means that whenever you throw the dart, you always hit the same place. You may be intending to hit the bullseye, but every time you throw, you hit the triple-twenty. EVERY time.
Not really the writers' fault the English language is held together with bailing wire, tape and hope, Stannis.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/precision ; Synonyms: Noun / accuracy,...
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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by AthenaTV »

Regarding dapper Dan, he comes up in the lyrics to “you’re never fully dressed without a smile“ in the musical Annie, so I assume it is a term from the 1930s.

There’s been a lot of interesting analysis of the FJ wagers, but I wondered what people think of Daniel’s last DD wager. I know he didn’t have much time to think, but the 4000 didn’t feel optimal to me. If he missed the DD, he would’ve handed Kristen a shut out. I feel like he should have either bet small to remain in a pressuring second place, or if he was going to bet enough to fall below half her total, he might as well have bet more and put himself further in the lead. As things turned out, that cushion would have made all the difference.

I thought Kristen played well and was actually happy that she won, though.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

AthenaTV wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:47 am
There’s been a lot of interesting analysis of the FJ wagers, but I wondered what people think of Daniel’s last DD wager. I know he didn’t have much time to think, but the 4000 didn’t feel optimal to me. If he missed the DD, he would’ve handed Kristen a shut out. I feel like he should have either bet small to remain in a pressuring second place, or if he was going to bet enough to fall below half her total, he might as well have bet more and put himself further in the lead. As things turned out, that cushion would have made all the difference.
I'm not so sure. Kristin missed the mark in her final wager, but I suspect she was able to anticipate that Daniel would fall to $1,200 or lower in FJ and that Kevin would bet less than $800 (again, she missed the mark by falling to $2,700, but I think it was a simple math mistake of adding $100 to her wager instead of subtracting it, rather than an error in strategy). She factored in reasonably accurate predictions of both her opponent's wagers.

Daniel was barely within two-thirds territory of Kristin's score, so he couldn't put himself in a crush lead (which would have had to be more than $17,100) to guarantee himself victory on a TS FJ. Whatever lead he got over Kristin on that DD would be less than he would have had to bet to cover her.

I think Kristin has demonstrated the wherewithal to have recognized, if Daniel had doubled up to $16,000, that he would bet $6,801 to cover her, and fall to $9,199, and that she should wager to stay above that. The question is then whether she would have calculated the maximum she could bet, $2,200, and then mistakenly added $100 to this. I kind of think that part of the reason she screwed up her wager (if I correctly surmise her thinking) was that two layers went into it ("Daniel will wager this, therefore Kevin will wager this, therefore I should wager..."), and only needing to consider one layer ("Daniel will wager this, therefore I should wager...") would have made the mistake easier to avoid. Also, it's possible the $800 I believe she anticipated from Kevin reflects how she would wager directly against an opponent leading her; i.e. she thought Kevin would bet $800 to beat Daniel $1,200 to $1,199, so she might have aimed to beat him $9,200 to $9,199 and sidestepped the +/-$100 issue. It's probably futile to speculate, but that's never stopped me.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by talkingaway »

teapot37 wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:01 am
I knew there was something in this game that bothered me besides the final.

Accuracy and precision are similar yet quite distinct concepts.

Accuracy means that you are always in the general vicinity of what you are aiming at. Imagine you are throwing at a dartboard and trying to hit the bullseye; sometimes you hit it, sometimes you are in the next ring out, and sometimes you are in the inside of the other 20 wedges - you're generally pretty close, never far off, but not always right on where you are aiming for.

Precision means that whenever you throw the dart, you always hit the same place. You may be intending to hit the bullseye, but every time you throw, you hit the triple-twenty. EVERY time.
Yup, I noticed that as well. Or, to put it another way, precision is whether your scale measures to the nearest pound, ounce, or gram. Accuracy is whether you're pressing your thumb on the scale as you're making measurements. But the dartboard analogy is easier to see.

It upset me at first, but the world isn't science, and the two can be synonymous. If I say "Everyone knows the answer to that FJ!", you could say either "That's not accurate" or "That's not precise." They mean close to the same thing in the vernacular outside of science.

In a similar vein, both "velocity" and "speed" would be acceptable as responses to "This is what determines the category level of a hurricane", even if they're two different (but related) concepts.

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Re: Thursday, October 15, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

Volante wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:21 am
Not really the writers' fault the English language is held together with bailing wire, tape and hope, Stannis.
Since we're being nit picky (even though it's probably just a typo), it's baling wire.

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