AthenaTV wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:47 am
There’s been a lot of interesting analysis of the FJ wagers, but I wondered what people think of Daniel’s last DD wager. I know he didn’t have much time to think, but the 4000 didn’t feel optimal to me. If he missed the DD, he would’ve handed Kristen a shut out. I feel like he should have either bet small to remain in a pressuring second place, or if he was going to bet enough to fall below half her total, he might as well have bet more and put himself further in the lead. As things turned out, that cushion would have made all the difference.
I'm not so sure. Kristin missed the mark in her final wager, but I suspect she was able to anticipate that Daniel would fall to $1,200 or lower in FJ and that Kevin would bet less than $800 (again, she missed the mark by falling to $2,700, but I think it was a simple math mistake of adding $100 to her wager instead of subtracting it, rather than an error in strategy). She factored in reasonably accurate predictions of both her opponent's wagers.
Daniel was barely within two-thirds territory of Kristin's score, so he couldn't put himself in a crush lead (which would have had to be more than $17,100) to guarantee himself victory on a TS FJ. Whatever lead he got over Kristin on that DD would be less than he would have had to bet to cover her.
I think Kristin has demonstrated the wherewithal to have recognized, if Daniel had doubled up to $16,000, that he would bet $6,801 to cover her, and fall to $9,199, and that she should wager to stay above that. The question is then whether she would have calculated the maximum she could bet, $2,200, and then mistakenly added $100 to this. I kind of think that part of the reason she screwed up her wager (if I correctly surmise her thinking) was that two layers went into it ("Daniel will wager this, therefore Kevin will wager this, therefore I should wager..."), and only needing to consider one layer ("Daniel will wager this, therefore I should wager...") would have made the mistake easier to avoid. Also, it's possible the $800 I believe she anticipated from Kevin reflects how she would wager directly against an opponent leading her; i.e. she thought Kevin would bet $800 to beat Daniel $1,200 to $1,199, so she might have aimed to beat him $9,200 to $9,199 and sidestepped the +/-$100 issue. It's probably futile to speculate, but that's never stopped me.