Wednesday, March 21, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[DBear]

What is going on with the contestants? I picked up 13000 just from trash: Flying Circus (before Monty Python picked it up). thrust, Calgary Flames, Robin Hood, Washington Irving in the J! round. In DJ! I ran "LL", picking up pollywog, logrolling and Cornwall, and Duelsville, picking up St. Petersburg, Reykjavik and Stalingrad (what else could it possibly be?).

The betting for FJ, as noted above, was suspect. FJ itself--reclusive writer, died in 2010 = J.D. Salinger.

[CyrusChan]

did anyone precall any of the Albert's? Camus for 2k was an easy one, IMO

[Johnblue]

Never heard of "logrolling", and I'm very politically aware.

So am I, but I have heard the word before. I had no idea what it meant before tonight though, and I only got it because of the 'lumberjack' TOM.

I learned about logrolling back in the 70's. I'm not sure if it's done as much these days.

[kristinsausville]

I was really excited to see the blueberry clue since Justin and I just planted blueberry bushes on Sunday. It's not one that I would have known as recently as last week!

[goforthetie]

Lock-tie. One of the most interesting endgames, and nobody went with the surefire $0 bet. Tsk. But a win's a win (I feel like deja vu all over again).

I'm the biggest fan of tie scores around, but I would never bet $0 in that scenario unless it was a frightening category. Probably less than 5% of previous contestants in that scenario have pulled out the $0 bet, so unless you like 20:1 odds that your opponent will be on the same wavelength as you, betting $0 says that you think you have less than a 50% chance of getting FJ correct.

bet 0:
< 5% chance you win because your opponent bet $0
95% * (something < 50%) chance that you win because your opponent bet more than $0 and got it wrong
That's probably less than 50% chance of winning.

Not to mention a fairly strong chance (~35%?) that both you and your opponent get FJ correct, he bets more than $0, and you're left with a lifetime of regret.

bet it all:
>50% chance that you get it right and win
<50% chance that you get it wrong and lose

Plus if you win, you get twice as much money as in the other scenario. It's a no-brainer.

[CyrusChan]

Lock-tie. One of the most interesting endgames, and nobody went with the surefire $0 bet. Tsk. But a win's a win (I feel like deja vu all over again).

I'm the biggest fan of tie scores around, but I would never bet $0 in that scenario unless it was a frightening category. Probably less than 5% of previous contestants in that scenario have pulled out the $0 bet, so unless you like 20:1 odds that your opponent will be on the same wavelength as you, betting $0 says that you think you have less than a 50% chance of getting FJ correct.

bet 0:
< 5% chance you win because your opponent bet $0
95% * (something < 50%) chance that you win because your opponent bet more than $0 and got it wrong
That's probably less than 50% chance of winning.

Not to mention a fairly strong chance (~35%?) that both you and your opponent get FJ correct, he bets more than $0, and you're left with a lifetime of regret.

bet it all:
>50% chance that you get it right and win
<50% chance that you get it wrong and lose

Plus if you win, you get twice as much money as in the other scenario. It's a no-brainer.

Weren't the final values at 13,600 , 13,600, and 6,200?

Betting 0 when you're in last place is a good option as you DO NOT have half of the leader's money. So anything you have from 6200 to 12400 does not really matter. You can only win if they are both wrong AND BOTH wagering more than 1,200. Hence, we have the winner today betting only 1000 as she went on the conservative side that both leading scorers would not come up with the current response and that the third-place contestant can usurp the leading positions.

In the event like this, both leaders are guessing vs. each other and would likely bet big so the third-place contestant can only win by holding a high total, not a smart choice to bet big in the event of a loss.

Staying put is a good move, regardless.

[LeFlaneur]

What is going on with the contestants? I picked up 13000 just from trash: Flying Circus (before Monty Python picked it up). thrust, Calgary Flames, Robin Hood, Washington Irving in the J! round. In DJ! I ran "LL", picking up pollywog, logrolling and Cornwall, and Duelsville, picking up St. Petersburg, Reykjavik and Stalingrad (what else could it possibly be?).

The betting for FJ, as noted above, was suspect. FJ itself--reclusive writer, died in 2010 = J.D. Salinger.

Agreed. I've been picking up a lot of Lach Trash myself lately including no less than 9 today. FJ was an instaget. Best of congrats to both yesterday and todays winners.

[goforthetie]

Lock-tie. One of the most interesting endgames, and nobody went with the surefire $0 bet. Tsk. But a win's a win (I feel like deja vu all over again).

I'm the biggest fan of tie scores around, but I would never bet $0 in that scenario unless it was a frightening category. Probably less than 5% of previous contestants in that scenario have pulled out the $0 bet, so unless you like 20:1 odds that your opponent will be on the same wavelength as you, betting $0 says that you think you have less than a 50% chance of getting FJ correct.

bet 0:
< 5% chance you win because your opponent bet $0
95% * (something < 50%) chance that you win because your opponent bet more than $0 and got it wrong
That's probably less than 50% chance of winning.

Not to mention a fairly strong chance (~35%?) that both you and your opponent get FJ correct, he bets more than $0, and you're left with a lifetime of regret.

bet it all:
>50% chance that you get it right and win
<50% chance that you get it wrong and lose

Plus if you win, you get twice as much money as in the other scenario. It's a no-brainer.

Weren't the final values at 13,600 , 13,600, and 6,200?

Betting 0 when you're in last place is a good option as you DO NOT have half of the leader's money. So anything you have from 6200 to 12400 does not really matter. You can only win if they are both wrong AND BOTH wagering more than 1,200. Hence, we have the winner today betting only 1000 as she went on the conservative side that both leading scorers would not come up with the current response and that the third-place contestant can usurp the leading positions.

In the event like this, both leaders are guessing vs. each other and would likely bet big so the third-place contestant can only win by holding a high total, not a smart choice to bet big in the event of a loss.

Staying put is a good move, regardless.

I was talking about the leaders, not the 3rd place finisher. I agree that for her, the $0 bet was smart.

[econgator]

Not to mention a fairly strong chance (~35%?) that both you and your opponent get FJ correct, he bets more than $0, and you're left with a lifetime of regret.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that. I couldn't care if the category were CITIES ENDING IN "ASHINGTON, D.C.", the only bet I would ever make is $0 and would have no regrets at all. I will always fall in the "never, EVER give up the lock" camp.

[goforthetie]

Not to mention a fairly strong chance (~35%?) that both you and your opponent get FJ correct, he bets more than $0, and you're left with a lifetime of regret.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that. I couldn't care if the category were CITIES ENDING IN "ASHINGTON, D.C.", the only bet I would ever make is $0 and would have no regrets at all. I will always fall in the "never, EVER give up the lock" camp.

Would you consider a $13500-$10000-$6000 game a lock and bet zero if you were the leader? After all, if you bet $0, you'll be guaranteed to finish ahead of 3rd place (as opposed to if you make the lockout bet) and there's a MUCH better chance in this scenario that 2nd place doesn't bet to overtake your original score than in the scenario today.

[MDCSWildcats86]

did anyone precall any of the Albert's? Camus for 2k was an easy one, IMO

No, but pleasantly surprised to have a Carl Albert reference in there, as I'm from Oklahoma City and of a generation that knows CA as a high school instead of a person.

[Miss Mellie]

Congratulations, Cathy!

I'm relieved that you guys deem my $0 wager acceptable. I was a little worried you'd think it was too conservative. Given the usual behavior of contestants and what I know about human nature, I definitely expected Cathy and Greg to try to out-wager each other. I was just hoping to be the last woman standing.

I wrote a guest-post for www.thejeopardyfan.com (I don't think it's up yet) in which I explain some of what happened with me in this game. As for my FJ response, well, contrary to Alex's pre-reveal comments, we didn't read any J.D. Salinger in my high school classes. While I am, of course, aware that he was a recluse, I somehow didn't know he had died. Thinking that Salinger was still alive and dismissing him as an option, I instead thought about Norman Mailer's appearance a few years ago on The Gilmore Girls. (I swear I am not making this up. This is actually what I thought about during the Think Music.) On the show, Mailer was an old, curmudgeonly writer. "Man of letters" stood out to me and I knew Mailer had written about war. Maybe he had sent dispatches from the front? It made perfect sense to me. Oh well. You can't know everything!

My gamble on the wager still paid off and I was delighted to place second.

Here's the bottomline: some people are professional game show contestants and some people are Jeopardy fans. I'm the latter. I'm not sad that I didn't win another game; I'm sad that I won't get to play Jeopardy again.

[econgator]

Would you consider a $13500-$10000-$6000 game a lock and bet zero if you were the leader? After all, if you bet $0, you'll be guaranteed to finish ahead of 3rd place (as opposed to if you make the lockout bet) and there's a MUCH better chance in this scenario that 2nd place doesn't bet to overtake your original score than in the scenario today.

No, but that has nothing to today's game. The two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

[bpmod]

Would you consider a $13500-$10000-$6000 game a lock and bet zero if you were the leader? After all, if you bet $0, you'll be guaranteed to finish ahead of 3rd place (as opposed to if you make the lockout bet) and there's a MUCH better chance in this scenario that 2nd place doesn't bet to overtake your original score than in the scenario today.

No, but that has nothing to today's game. The the two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

And a 100% chance to play again.

Brian

[econgator]

Would you consider a $13500-$10000-$6000 game a lock and bet zero if you were the leader? After all, if you bet $0, you'll be guaranteed to finish ahead of 3rd place (as opposed to if you make the lockout bet) and there's a MUCH better chance in this scenario that 2nd place doesn't bet to overtake your original score than in the scenario today.

No, but that has nothing to today's game. The the two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

And a 100% chance to play again.

Brian

That, too.

[goforthetie]

Would you consider a $13500-$10000-$6000 game a lock and bet zero if you were the leader? After all, if you bet $0, you'll be guaranteed to finish ahead of 3rd place (as opposed to if you make the lockout bet) and there's a MUCH better chance in this scenario that 2nd place doesn't bet to overtake your original score than in the scenario today.

No, but that has nothing to today's game. The two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

It's only 100% if you can guarantee the action of the other player. You can't.

[BigDaddyJ]

did anyone precall any of the Albert's? Camus for 2k was an easy one, IMO

I precalled Albert Einstein, but he never showed up.

Picked up some Lach Trash on pollywog, Cornwall, The Firebird, and Bantam.

I thought it strange that Alex said that Greg looked like he didn't want to be there. I don't imagine there's ever been a contestant on Jeopardy! who didn't want to be there. I suspect he was just a bit nervous.

[Snaxx]

The the two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

And a 100% chance to play again.

Brian

That, too.

Only 100% if you trust the other guy to do the same.

[BigDaddyJ]

I will always fall in the "never, EVER give up the lock" camp.

Nobody had a lock.

The two leaders had a 100% chance for a $13600 payday. Why would you ever risk that?

It's only 100% if you can guarantee the action of the other player. You can't.

I have to agree with goforthetie. No individual contestant had a possible wager that would give them a 100% chance for a $13,600 payday or for getting to play again, and it's irrelevant to speak of their combined chances because they are not working in collusion (so far as we know).

[Snaxx]

Congratulations, Cathy!

I'm relieved that you guys deem my $0 wager acceptable.

Congrats to both of you! I also agree with the $0.
It looks like that blog is up.
http://www.thejeopardyfan.com/2012/03/s ... table.html