Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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DBear
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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by DBear »

runs: Big Biz, Moon (easy $ for the taking),
DDs: :( (blank) :D :D
trash: Michener, Gouda, Saturn, Mariner, Callisto (6400)
FJ: What is Django Unchained? :mrgreen: don't know where I pulled that from.
Dan is never gonna live down that bet...
DBear wrote:
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A new moon for Neptune has been discovered, named Hippocamp :geek:
Took a couple years, but it came up! 8-)

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Category 13 »

MarkBarrett wrote:I understand why $1 is the favored play and why some others might go with the zero wager. In Kelly's place I would have gone 7500 since I liked the category and let chips fall where they may.
I agree. I was kinda hoping Kelly would maximize his wager to 7595. That would have stung ten times as bad for Dan.

It seems hard to fathom Dan not having a grasp on what he needed to do to win the game. After all, he did understand how to protect against Kimberly doubling her score.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by The Talking Mime »

Literally an hour or two before the game, I was on Netflix seeing what was available to watch. I saw Django Unchained listed and thought "Huh, haven't seen that one in a while." Would've got the clue regardless, but it was a nice coincidence. Funny how Silver Linings Playbook was a correct response as well, since it was released the same year and competed against Django at the 85th Oscars. Haven't seen that one, though.

I guess I don't need to say much about Dan's wager. Yeesh.

Hey, a top row DD!
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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by tddeveryday »

WhatAreDogs wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:57 pm
When's the last game with a top row DD in DJ, and no DDs below row 2?
I don't know, but I do remember one game where every DD was in the 2nd row.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Robert K S »

FJ! was basically "have you seen the movie or not". I suppose one could have gotten it without seeing the movie if one was paying attention during awards season and allowed oneself to connect "German" with "Christoph Waltz", who swept the big three supporting actor awards that year with the role, just as he had done three years before for another Tarantino film.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

Robert K S wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:16 pm
FJ! was basically "have you seen the movie or not". I suppose one could have gotten it without seeing the movie if one was paying attention during awards season and allowed oneself to connect "German" with "Christoph Waltz", who swept the big three supporting actor awards that year with the role, just as he had done three years before for another Tarantino film.
Never saw either one and know nothing about the plots. I got Django from the “title character” bit.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey »

econgator wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:29 pm
I didn't hear the "D" in Dan Levy. Sounded to me like she said "Zan".

Also, that's not how Gouda is correctly pronounced, but that's all you'll hear in the US.

No clue on FJ.
I'm pretty sure she just slurs the s in is into the D in Dan. Far more likely than that she thinks his name begins with a Z...
I wonder if Levy would have been enough, since his father is much more famous?

This guy give us all permission to use the non-Dutch way...
https://www.google.com/search?q=gouda+p ... P3Iy4uAg35
I pronounced it Edam myself... :roll:
misreading obscured... :oops:
Spoiler
When I saw Dan's FJ response, my heart sank because I had only written the name. Then I reviewed the category and clue and saw that was what was required. (Maybe we can feel a little less bad for Dan's bad wager knowing that he didn't follow the clue strictly either?) It took me most of the :30 to remember the name and I forgot that there was more to the title...
Last edited by davey on Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy »

Bamaman wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:19 pm
Robert K S wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:16 pm
FJ! was basically "have you seen the movie or not". I suppose one could have gotten it without seeing the movie if one was paying attention during awards season and allowed oneself to connect "German" with "Christoph Waltz", who swept the big three supporting actor awards that year with the role, just as he had done three years before for another Tarantino film.
Never saw either one and know nothing about the plots. I got Django from the “title character” bit.
I've not seen them either, but I know that "twelve" isn't a surname - it is a first name! Why did the players and a few boardies even consider Twelve Years a Slave - is there something I don't understand about "Title" characters? I started with Wyatt Earp as a period movie thinking maybe he had a name change (who would pick "Urp"?). Once I thought about the likelihood it is only a first name in the title I came to the Django movie which seemed to slot into the TOM's nicely.

I think Kelly's going for the 8K TDD subdued Dan from thinking there was a realistic pathway to win, in spite of the long odds. In ten different clues I'm guessing Kelly takes the next 9. Why isn't there a wagering strategy to add a buck to a DD bet so you have it to act like the green zeroes on the roulette wheel? (Of course the script is flipped if you miss the DD :().

Anderson is almost transparent - if he takes it on himself to quit the "we were looking for" format, I can forget he is a "guest" host. I saw the complete list from an J! email and there will be a LOT of guest hosts. I already have guest host fatigue, so I probably will only notice bad performances the rest of the season.
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:21 pm
Wow. EVERYTHING went right for Dan to win from his position. He needed Kelly to miss FJ AND to bet at least a dollar. Both things happened. He needed to get FJ right himself. That happened. All Dan needed to do was make a wager that would take advantage of that somewhat unlikely concatenation of events. Instead he made a wager that reduced his odds of winning from long-ish to essentially zero. Did he miscalculate and think Kelly had a runaway?

Kelly lucked out here. He shouldn't have bet that dollar, leaving Dan a clear path to victory with no tiebreaker necessary. But Dan's fortunate/unfortunate decision saved him from the consequences of that choice. Earlier, of course, Kelly made his own luck with that true DD, showing Dan what he should've done 7 clues earlier with his own DD. If Dan had had that extra $7600 that he left on the table, would he have made a better wager on FJ? I suspect he would have, but who knows? Poor guy. I bet he's been over this a thousand times in his mind. Maybe I'm wrong. But he seems like a guy who figured out what was up after it was too late to change his decisions. The game turned out to have been his to lose.

FJ was close to instaget for me but it seems not to have too much of a way in for those who don't pretty much know it. I happened to have seen the first 10 minutes or so a few years back and recalled the German dentist. 12 Years a Slave was the other obvious guess, given some but not enough knowledge, and the contestants did well to write something down on a clue where it could be difficult to come up with anything plausible. I guess that movie does have a title character, Solomon Northup, the slave in question. But it seems kind of generic.
"If Dan had had that extra $7600 that he left on the table"--Make that $3800.

"But he seems like a guy who figured out what was up after it was too late to change his decisions." --Citation needed.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

davey wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:32 pm
When I saw Dan's FJ response, my heart sank because I had only written the name. Then I reviewed the category and clue and saw that was what was required. (Maybe we can feel a little less bad for Dan's bad wager knowing that he didn't follow the clue strictly either?) It took me most of the :30 to remember the name and I forgot that there was more to the title...
Try reviewing some more :) IN THIS 2012 FILM
Robert K S wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:16 pm
FJ! was basically "have you seen the movie or not". I suppose one could have gotten it without seeing the movie if one was paying attention during awards season and allowed oneself to connect "German" with "Christoph Waltz", who swept the big three supporting actor awards that year with the role, just as he had done three years before for another Tarantino film.
This is a pretty massive overstatement. Knowing the movie exists from around this time period and it's about a slave, even if you don't know about the Christoph Waltz-played German character it's still quite gettable.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:21 pm
...
Kelly lucked out here. He shouldn't have bet that dollar, leaving Dan a clear path to victory with no tiebreaker necessary.
...
I think it comes down to the category. For me? I'm putting a dollar down on that one. Statistically, if my opponent's getting a movie clue right, I am too, so I want to win out right rather than gamble on the tiebreaker.

Now, if it was, say, "Country and/or Western Singers" you better believe I'm drawing a big fat goose-egg.
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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by danspartan »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:21 pm

Kelly lucked out here. He shouldn't have bet that dollar, leaving Dan a clear path to victory with no tiebreaker necessary.
$1 is a rational wager here. He is about 55% to win outright (leaders are favorites to get FJ correct).

Of the four 1st/2nd combinations
R=right W=wrong

If leader bets $1
RR wins
WW wins
RW wins
WR loses

If leader bets $0
RR ties- 50% buzzer race
WW wins
RW wins
WR ties- 50% buzzer race

So if all possibilities were equal it’s a tie. 3/4 net wins.

However RR happens more frequently than WR.

So he is giving up half of ~33% (-16.5) and gaining half of about 18% (+10) for a net of -6.5% for wagering $0 vs $1.

Now if our leader thinks that 2nd is more likely to get FJ correct, then the math flips. But on average, leaders get more correct than trailing players.
Spoiler
(I am using leader is 55% to be correct and 2nd is 60/40 to correlate with 1st.)

RR=.55 x .6=33%
RW=.55 x .4=22%
WW=.45 x .6=27%
WR= .45 x .4 =18%

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey »

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:31 pm
davey wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:32 pm
When I saw Dan's FJ response, my heart sank because I had only written the name. Then I reviewed the category and clue and saw that was what was required. (Maybe we can feel a little less bad for Dan's bad wager knowing that he didn't follow the clue strictly either?) It took me most of the :30 to remember the name and I forgot that there was more to the title...
Try reviewing some more :) IN THIS 2012 FILM
Thanks, I guess... :evil: Always look for the this...Seems I wanted to read it another way... :oops:

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MattKnowles »

38R. 3/4 on big clues. Didn't get Poets' Corner. I like Tarantino movies so no problem in FJ. Lots for me to learn this game.

The clue "This city, famous for a certain product, attracts tourists to its market" with response "Amsterdam" would have been more fitting earlier in the week.

The Saturn clue that finished with "...this planet that's named for the Roman god of agriculture" really threw me off. The contestants also.

Only 1/5 in the Authors category and that's usually a good one for me. Should have gotten Milan Kundera and Paulo Coelho.

Some clues that I missed that I want to get next time are Rococo, the plaza, Catherine de Medici, Callisto, and Martini (Martini & Rossi).
Golf wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:18 pm
Boys and girls, this is why you wager $0 from the lead against certain player types.
You're right, but also it should depend on your get rate for FJs. If you get 99% of FJs correct then you should bet $1.

I wanted him to bet everything on the top row DD.

My rule of thumb: always bet the maximum on the J round DD and always bet the maximum on the DJ round DD if you find it on the first 8 clues. Don't even think about wagering until the last 22 clues of the game. That leaves plenty of time to catch up in case you miss.

Would have been helpful here.
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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MattKnowles »

danspartan wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:46 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:21 pm

Kelly lucked out here. He shouldn't have bet that dollar, leaving Dan a clear path to victory with no tiebreaker necessary.
$1 is a rational wager here. He is about 55% to win outright (leaders are favorites to get FJ correct).

Of the four 1st/2nd combinations
R=right W=wrong

If leader bets $1
RR wins
WW wins
RW wins
WR loses

If leader bets $0
RR ties- 50% buzzer race
WW wins
RW wins
WR ties- 50% buzzer race

So if all possibilities were equal it’s a tie. 3/4 net wins.

However RR happens more frequently than WR.

So he is giving up half of ~33% (-16.5) and gaining half of about 18% (+10) for a net of -6.5% for wagering $0 vs $1.

Now if our leader thinks that 2nd is more likely to get FJ correct, then the math flips. But on average, leaders get more correct than trailing players.
Spoiler
(I am using leader is 55% to be correct and 2nd is 60/40 to correlate with 1st.)

RR=.55 x .6=33%
RW=.55 x .4=22%
WW=.45 x .6=27%
WR= .45 x .4 =18%
Plug to a post I made: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5295&p=313084&hilit=rr#p313084

Wow that's so long ago.
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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Newhausen »

danspartan wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:46 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:21 pm

Kelly lucked out here. He shouldn't have bet that dollar, leaving Dan a clear path to victory with no tiebreaker necessary.
$1 is a rational wager here. He is about 55% to win outright (leaders are favorites to get FJ correct).

Of the four 1st/2nd combinations
R=right W=wrong

If leader bets $1
RR wins
WW wins
RW wins
WR loses

If leader bets $0
RR ties- 50% buzzer race
WW wins
RW wins
WR ties- 50% buzzer race

So if all possibilities were equal it’s a tie. 3/4 net wins.

However RR happens more frequently than WR.

So he is giving up half of ~33% (-16.5) and gaining half of about 18% (+10) for a net of -6.5% for wagering $0 vs $1.

Now if our leader thinks that 2nd is more likely to get FJ correct, then the math flips. But on average, leaders get more correct than trailing players.
Spoiler
(I am using leader is 55% to be correct and 2nd is 60/40 to correlate with 1st.)

RR=.55 x .6=33%
RW=.55 x .4=22%
WW=.45 x .6=27%
WR= .45 x .4 =18%
I feel like the person who has exactly double the other player's score going in to Final has a slightly better than 50% chance to win a buzzer race, almost by definition.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by danspartan »

The amount of times 2nd doesn’t go all-in is a big variable.

I can’t fault $0 or $1. Game theory is $1 as soon as first is a favorite to get FJ correct more than 2nd.

Anything over $1 is horrible.

If confident 2nd is going all-in then obviously $1. Given the small DD wager when trailing big makes things much more interesting.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by danspartan »

Newhausen wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:01 pm

I feel like the person who has exactly double the other player's score going in to Final has a slightly better than 50% chance to win a buzzer race, almost by definition.
Another complicating factor. Depends on if the lead was built due to big DD wager. Would need a pretty strong feel about relative buzzer speed to factor this in, but on average I agree it’s a factor that should negate some of the advantage if we win say 55% of ties.

Bottom line it depends but both are OK I think.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by DBear »

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:31 pm

Robert K S wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:16 pm
FJ! was basically "have you seen the movie or not". I suppose one could have gotten it without seeing the movie if one was paying attention during awards season and allowed oneself to connect "German" with "Christoph Waltz", who swept the big three supporting actor awards that year with the role, just as he had done three years before for another Tarantino film.
This is a pretty massive overstatement. Knowing the movie exists from around this time period and it's about a slave, even if you don't know about the Christoph Waltz-played German character it's still quite gettable.
Absolutely. Anything to do with Movies is a weak category for me, so I would've bet the 0 and taken my chances with the tiebreaker. As it was, they served up one that even I could get.

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Re: Friday, April 23, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

Missing the category, I was stuck on 12 Years a Slave, even though I know Boyhood, which took place and was filmed over a 12-year period, had to change from a title that reflected such when the Solomon Northup film came out, and I knew I saw that movie in the theater later than 2012. Also I knew the guy was Solomon Northup, not Freeman. But I just stayed with it, ending a 4-FJ correct streak (which followed a 4-incorrect streak).

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