Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

This is where all of the games are discussed.

Moderators: alietr, trainman, econgator, dhkendall

User avatar
TenPoundHammer
Otters are meant to swim
Posts: 8305
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:59 pm
Location: Michigan
Contact:

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer »

Had a few stupid moments (forgetting Pacific Time, vacillating on ASPCA vs. Humane Society) but still much better performance for me in J! DJ!, not so much, with only 4 right.

Wanted to see All I Have to Do Is Dream in the Dream category, but it was not to be. At least I knew Katy Perry.

I knew Sue Grafton. My mom reads her books all the time. But when I saw it, all I could think of was Janet Evanovich (who is awesome, by the way), but I knew it wasn't right.

My eyes skipped right to "map" at the end of the clue, so I said red state/blue state before Alex was done reading the clue.
Ten Pound Hammer

This space for rent

User avatar
jaxjags
Valued Contributor
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jaxjags »

Very gutsy move by Joey, I think it was awesome. It wasn't smart, but still, he's making bank now. Could be a ToCer if he keeps this up.

User avatar
jpahk
Jeopardy! TOCer
Posts: 615
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 1:16 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpahk »

what an insane but awesome wager. could easily blow up in his face, but on the other hand, he's now $10k richer than he would have been with the MSB. it's pretty easy to fall into the habit of considering only win probabilities when calculating best wagers, but if your goal is to win as much money as you can, then it can make a pretty big difference to have an extra ten grand tacked onto your total winnings.

here's a sample back-of-the-envelope calculation:

let's say joey estimates himself at 80% on "political terms". (i'm assuming he saw something he liked in that category, since he made a much saner bet yesterday and a very small bet from 3rd on tuesday.) there's no particular reason to estimate john or emily at anything other than the normal 50% FJ get rate, so his win probability if he makes the MSB is at least 85%: he gets it right 80% of the time, and of the other 20% of the time, at least a quarter of the time, neither of the other two can punish him for it. it's probably more like half: if a question is tough enough for an 80% player to miss it, the odds of a 50% player missing it are pretty darn good too. so maybe he's 90% to win making the MSB, and his expected value is 0.9*($19601 + whatever his EV for future episodes is). by going all in, his EV is 0.8*($30000 + future EV), which is higher than his EV with the MSB unless he estimates the value of staying on as champion to be over $64k. and this is only for an 80% confidence in the FJ category, mind you. if he thinks he's 90%, the future EV threshold would more than double.

bottom line: it's easy to let fear of the worst case scenario prevent you from making the decision that maximizes your expected winnings.
Last edited by jpahk on Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Bamaman
Also Receiving Votes
Posts: 9739
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

The time zone category belonged in Kids Week. The bottom row answer should have been San Juan, Puerto Rico.


Joon...I understand the math and your reasoning about his expected value if he liked the category. And if was playing an unlimited number of games, I'd go for the big payoff if i liked the category. but one bummer of an FJ ends your time on the stage, so I'm never making more than the MSB.

User avatar
jpahk
Jeopardy! TOCer
Posts: 615
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 1:16 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpahk »

Bamaman wrote:Joon...I understand the math and your reasoning about his expected value if he liked the category. And if was playing an unlimited number of games, I'd go for the big payoff if i liked the category. but one bummer of an FJ ends your time on the stage, so I'm never making more than the MSB.
to be sure (and i should have made this clearer in my original post), it is not axiomatic that maximizing expected winnings must be your strategy. when i played, i was much more interested in how much fun it was to keep playing than in how much money i'd piled up. but it's also certainly reasonable to try to maximize expected winnings, and i never see anybody talking about that around here when discussing FJ wagers.

Johnblue
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 1418
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:55 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Johnblue »

Did it seem like J. Sellers was running out the clock on the last DD? As for Miss Truman, allegedly she didn't actually write those books. Disappointing game overall but Joey's bet saved it.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 6806
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

Times like these make me sad that I didn't bet it all on a wheelhouse FJ category. Granted (see what I did there?), it was the only correct response that I didn't feel 100% about as I wrote it, so I'd have been sweating bullets, but an extra $15,199 would have been nice an episode later when I was blowing $20,065 [edit: but under those circumstances, it probably would have been $20,066].

User avatar
dhkendall
Pursuing the Dream
Posts: 8776
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:49 am
Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba
Contact:

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by dhkendall »

xxaaaxx wrote:John's reaction to the Tiber DD was the same as mine, since I pretty much guessed a random Italian river.
For next time, remember the Tiber is the one that flows through Rome (and is near the Vatican), then it won't be as random. (Free Geography tip for y'all)
xxaaaxx wrote:2000 + electoral map = instaget, almost before Alex STARTED reading the clue. The whole 'red/blue state' thing always struck me as dumb. Did they forget how they had used those colors in previous elections, or just decide it sounded cool? :roll:
The thing that gets me about those terms is that everywhere else in the world, the colours are reversed: red is invariably for left of centre parties (think red for communism (not saying the Democrats are communist, but they're at least the most left of the two main parties), whereas blue is invariably used for right wing parties (don't have a handy tip like the communist one to help, but the Conservatives in both Canada and the UK have used blue ever since we started spelling things with extra "u"s.)

And, btw, it isn't a case of the fact that we've been using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats in previous elections and it just started to be in the parlance in 2000 "because it sounded cool", actually 2000 was the first year that all media for some reason used the same colours for the parties - in previous elections one media outlet would use red for Republicans, while their competitor would represent them in blue, and another one would try to avoid the colour scheme of the first two and represent them in orange while showing the Democrats in purple, or what have you. 2000, for some reason, they all started using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats and it stuck due to the parlance.
Bamaman wrote:The time zone category belonged in Kids Week. The bottom row answer should have been San Juan, Puerto Rico.

And the answer would still have been the same. I would have been evil and picked a city (well, town) in the Aleutians ...
marpocky wrote:Instaget of all instagets.

I might bet it all in the lead with the perfect category (anything about math, or certain geography things), but still probably not.
Joey (btw, love his first and last name together!) did.

This is what perplexes me about the Wagering Police, stray outside the MSB, or a reasonable bet, and you get pilloried. If Joey got it wrong, he would for sure have been thrown in Wagering Jail. But since his TDD FJ paid off, he's a hero? Whatevs.


(Oh, and it seems I'm over 1000 posts now. Surprised my status hasn't automatically changed to "Jeopardy! Stalker" or something (no not seriously suggesting that, as I know what thread to do that in.))
"Jeopardy! is two parts luck and one part luck" - Me

"The way to win on Jeopardy is to be a rabidly curious, information-omnivorous person your entire life." - Ken Jennings

Follow my progress game by game since 2012

User avatar
xxaaaxx
Watches Jeopardy! Way Too Much
Posts: 2131
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:29 pm
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by xxaaaxx »

dhkendall wrote:And, btw, it isn't a case of the fact that we've been using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats in previous elections and it just started to be in the parlance in 2000 "because it sounded cool", actually 2000 was the first year that all media for some reason used the same colours for the parties - in previous elections one media outlet would use red for Republicans, while their competitor would represent them in blue, and another one would try to avoid the colour scheme of the first two and represent them in orange while showing the Democrats in purple, or what have you. 2000, for some reason, they all started using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats and it stuck due to the parlance.
I know the backstory, it's just never made sense that they all decided to use the same color scheme, and file people/states away into neat little red/blue categories (which I find annoying and lazy). Maybe there was a good, logical reason for it, but I don't want to give them too much credit (hence the sarcastic "sounded cool" remark).
This is what perplexes me about the Wagering Police, stray outside the MSB, or a reasonable bet, and you get pilloried. If Joey got it wrong, he would for sure have been thrown in Wagering Jail. But since his TDD FJ paid off, he's a hero? Whatevs.
Not in my book. He got away with it, but that was an extremely reckless wager, probably even more egregious than Molly's since it was a crush. But he has an extra $10k, so I'm sure he doesn't care. He can afford whatever bail the wagering police sets :lol:

User avatar
whoisalexjacob
2015 TOC'er
Posts: 561
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:19 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by whoisalexjacob »

Not only does he get the extra 10k, but with his low total, if he wins exactly 4 games that 10k could very well be the difference between making the tournament or not (or even 3 games, who knows). But even so, I'd still never do that. I wonder if it was about the category, or some random impulse.

Second round kicked my butt today.

harrumph
Voyeur
Posts: 1701
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:00 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by harrumph »

I went with red state/blue state as i couldn't come up with anything else, but I felt like the terms had been around several decades longer.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 6806
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

omgwheelhouse wrote:Not only does he get the extra 10k, but with his low total, if he wins exactly 4 games that 10k could very well be the difference between making the tournament or not (or even 3 games, who knows).
There is precedent. In Pam Mifflin's second game, her cover wager would have been $201. She bet $11,000, won on a sole get, won her third game, and lost her fourth. She was the last qualifier for the 1998 ToC, where the alternate was another 3x champ with about $6,000 less in earnings. She didn't really make a dent, but the fact is her overwager got her there.

I can think of a couple other ToCers who bet it all (or close enough) from the lead (Dave Belote's first game and Ben Bishop's third spring to mind), but no one else who wouldn't have made the ToC without doing so.

Bamaman
Also Receiving Votes
Posts: 9739
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

David-San Juan is in the Atlantic time zone. Although, they do not observe DST, so they are technically on Eastern right now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Time_Zone

User avatar
alietr
Site Admin
Posts: 7080
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 1:20 pm
Location: Bethesda, MD

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

RIP Tim Russert. An exceptional guy I had the fortune to meet several times since my ex worked under him.

Personally, they play games with the FJ category far too often to go and Clavin it. I've seen total wheelhouse categories that had absolutely nothing to do with what the clue was about (e.g., "Baseball History" http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=2552). I'm glad for Joey that he got an instaget clue, but if it had gone the other way ...

Bamaman
Also Receiving Votes
Posts: 9739
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

xxaaaxx wrote:
dhkendall wrote:
This is what perplexes me about the Wagering Police, stray outside the MSB, or a reasonable bet, and you get pilloried. If Joey got it wrong, he would for sure have been thrown in Wagering Jail. But since his TDD FJ paid off, he's a hero? Whatevs.
Not in my book. He got away with it, but that was an extremely reckless wager, probably even more egregious than Molly's since it was a crush. But he has an extra $10k, so I'm sure he doesn't care. He can afford whatever bail the wagering police sets :lol:
Agreed. Bad bets should be punished.

User avatar
Volante
Harbinger of the Doomed Lemur
Posts: 7086
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

Bamaman wrote:
xxaaaxx wrote:
dhkendall wrote: This is what perplexes me about the Wagering Police, stray outside the MSB, or a reasonable bet, and you get pilloried. If Joey got it wrong, he would for sure have been thrown in Wagering Jail. But since his TDD FJ paid off, he's a hero? Whatevs.
Not in my book. He got away with it, but that was an extremely reckless wager, probably even more egregious than Molly's since it was a crush. But he has an extra $10k, so I'm sure he doesn't care. He can afford whatever bail the wagering police sets :lol:
Agreed. Bad bets should be punished.
Yeah, but perfect bets don't get nearly the post traffic. If everyone wagered perfectly, what would you gripe about then?! :mrgreen:

We should at least all be in agreement that he knew exactly what he was doing.

User avatar
alietr
Site Admin
Posts: 7080
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 1:20 pm
Location: Bethesda, MD

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

Volante wrote:We should at least all be in agreement that he knew exactly what he was doing.
We all can't even agree on Mark getting better!

Vanya
The support is non-zero
Posts: 2727
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:10 pm
Contact:

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Vanya »

I loved Joey's wager (haven't seen the whole show yet)!

Could there be a yea or nay question on the weekly poll?

harrumph
Voyeur
Posts: 1701
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:00 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by harrumph »

For us to properly analyze it Joey would have to show up here and give his thought process.

User avatar
whoisalexjacob
2015 TOC'er
Posts: 561
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:19 am

Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by whoisalexjacob »

alietr wrote:
Volante wrote:We should at least all be in agreement that he knew exactly what he was doing.
We all can't even agree on Mark getting better!

OK, I must be missing something, but I don't understand either of these posts.. some help?

Post Reply