Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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Magna
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Magna »

Volante wrote:
Magna wrote:On one of the questions, I would have answered "brain" instead of "brain stem." Any ideas whether this would have been accepted as correct, or would have elicited a BMS? (The brain stem is part of the brain, fwiw.)
I think the clue listed other parts of the brain, so I'm tentatively saying it'd be marked wrong.
(Brain:brain stem::Ireland:Northern Ireland?)
The clue was "A mass of nerve fibers, the pons is part of this, extending between the cerebral hemispheres & the spinal cord." The cerebral hemispheres are part of the brain, but the spinal cord isn't. Also fwiw, the pons doesn't directly adjoin the spinal cord.

The contestants were not doing so well in this category. Three TSs, including this clue.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer »

dhkendall wrote:For those (except TPH) who need help learning the parts of the brain:
I just said I hated the Animaniacs. I never said anything about hating Pinky and the Brain. Or Slappy Squirrel. Or Minerva Mink.
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Volante
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

Magna wrote:
Volante wrote:
Magna wrote:On one of the questions, I would have answered "brain" instead of "brain stem." Any ideas whether this would have been accepted as correct, or would have elicited a BMS? (The brain stem is part of the brain, fwiw.)
I think the clue listed other parts of the brain, so I'm tentatively saying it'd be marked wrong.
(Brain:brain stem::Ireland:Northern Ireland?)
The clue was "A mass of nerve fibers, the pons is part of this, extending between the cerebral hemispheres & the spinal cord." The cerebral hemispheres are part of the brain, but the spinal cord isn't. Also fwiw, the pons doesn't directly adjoin the spinal cord.

The contestants were not doing so well in this category. Three TSs, including this clue.
I'm gonna say 'brain' wouldn't fly then. "Cerebral hemispheres" should rule out the brain proper and have you focus on a smaller component.

Alex might have paused before ruling you wrong if you just said 'brain' though

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Sage on the Hudson
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One state, two state, red state, blue state

Post by Sage on the Hudson »

Austin Powers wrote:Fans of football may recall that a Lisfranc joint is why the Texans are not Super Bowl champions this year.
I don't see why: "football" has never been an accurate name for the game.

thenextofken wrote:Did anyone else have "SPCA" for "ASPCA?" I negged myself, but wonder if they would've accepted it. Judges?
No, because the SPCA was founded in England in 1824, only becoming the RSPCA when Queen Victoria granted it a royal charter in 1840.

dhkendall wrote:The thing that gets me about those terms is that everywhere else in the world, the colours are reversed: red is invariably for left of centre parties (think red for communism (not saying the Democrats are communist, but they're at least the most left of the two main parties), whereas blue is invariably used for right wing parties (don't have a handy tip like the communist one to help, but the Conservatives in both Canada and the UK have used blue ever since we started spelling things with extra "u"s.)

And, btw, it isn't a case of the fact that we've been using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats in previous elections and it just started to be in the parlance in 2000 "because it sounded cool", actually 2000 was the first year that all media for some reason used the same colours for the parties - in previous elections one media outlet would use red for Republicans, while their competitor would represent them in blue, and another one would try to avoid the colour scheme of the first two and represent them in orange while showing the Democrats in purple, or what have you. 2000, for some reason, they all started using red for Republicans and blue for Democrats and it stuck due to the parlance.
Why? Conservatives are proud consumers of red meat, both literally and figuratively, and as they keep trying to point out, liberals are too addicted to arugula to eat much cow flesh.

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nserven
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by nserven »

My only question is whether they would have accepted simply 'red' and 'blue,' since we now speak of districts, precincts, etc., as being red or blue. (My own response included 'state.')

Austin Powers
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Austin Powers »

I may have talked myself into liking this bet.

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jpahk
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpahk »

jpahk wrote:let's say joey estimates himself at 80% on "political terms". (i'm assuming he saw something he liked in that category, since he made a much saner bet yesterday and a very small bet from 3rd on tuesday.) there's no particular reason to estimate john or emily at anything other than the normal 50% FJ get rate, so his win probability if he makes the MSB is at least 85%: he gets it right 80% of the time, and of the other 20% of the time, at least a quarter of the time, neither of the other two can punish him for it. it's probably more like half: if a question is tough enough for an 80% player to miss it, the odds of a 50% player missing it are pretty darn good too. so maybe he's 90% to win making the MSB, and his expected value is 0.9*($19601 + whatever his EV for future episodes is). by going all in, his EV is 0.8*($30000 + future EV), which is higher than his EV with the MSB unless he estimates the value of staying on as champion to be over $64k. and this is only for an 80% confidence in the FJ category, mind you. if he thinks he's 90%, the future EV threshold would more than double.
i noticed i made an error in my calculation: if he makes the MSB, his EV is actually (0.8*19601 + 0.1*10399 + future EV), because in some of his win scenarios, he ends up with only $10399 because he's gotten FJ wrong. this correction makes the all-in bet even more favorable by comparison.
omgwheelhouse wrote:My opinion: I could see it being correct for a "lucky"-type champ who doesn't necessarily love their chances to keep winning*. I don't think it would be correct for a good champ. (Admittedly, I just skimmed Joon's math post and haven't done any of my own calculations on this.) Random example that means nothing: Jason Keller wins game 2 on a TS with pre-FJ scores of 27k to 19k.
well, that's a decidedly non-random example, since jason keller went on to win the 3rd-most games and 6th-most money of all time. i suppose i could look for examples of a returning champ who had a crush in her 2nd game and went on to get it right, but did not turn into an all-time great. this doesn't seem like it would be hard to find. in general, there is no particular reason for any player, even one leading after DJ, to think that he or she is among the top 0.1% of jeopardy players ever, which is where you have to end up before the expected future EV for winning starts to approach the 6-figure range. but perhaps if you are already a dominating 5+ time champ or something and this scenario occurs in your 6th game, then you might be thinking along those lines.

Frank Hardy
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Frank Hardy »

At least Joey's bet put him ahead of Beau in the ToC standings.

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whoisalexjacob
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by whoisalexjacob »

jpahk wrote:
jpahk wrote:let's say joey estimates himself at 80% on "political terms". (i'm assuming he saw something he liked in that category, since he made a much saner bet yesterday and a very small bet from 3rd on tuesday.) there's no particular reason to estimate john or emily at anything other than the normal 50% FJ get rate, so his win probability if he makes the MSB is at least 85%: he gets it right 80% of the time, and of the other 20% of the time, at least a quarter of the time, neither of the other two can punish him for it. it's probably more like half: if a question is tough enough for an 80% player to miss it, the odds of a 50% player missing it are pretty darn good too. so maybe he's 90% to win making the MSB, and his expected value is 0.9*($19601 + whatever his EV for future episodes is). by going all in, his EV is 0.8*($30000 + future EV), which is higher than his EV with the MSB unless he estimates the value of staying on as champion to be over $64k. and this is only for an 80% confidence in the FJ category, mind you. if he thinks he's 90%, the future EV threshold would more than double.
i noticed i made an error in my calculation: if he makes the MSB, his EV is actually (0.8*19601 + 0.1*10399 + future EV), because in some of his win scenarios, he ends up with only $10399 because he's gotten FJ wrong. this correction makes the all-in bet even more favorable by comparison.
omgwheelhouse wrote:My opinion: I could see it being correct for a "lucky"-type champ who doesn't necessarily love their chances to keep winning*. I don't think it would be correct for a good champ. (Admittedly, I just skimmed Joon's math post and haven't done any of my own calculations on this.) Random example that means nothing: Jason Keller wins game 2 on a TS with pre-FJ scores of 27k to 19k.
well, that's a decidedly non-random example, since jason keller went on to win the 3rd-most games and 6th-most money of all time. i suppose i could look for examples of a returning champ who had a crush in her 2nd game and went on to get it right, but did not turn into an all-time great. this doesn't seem like it would be hard to find. in general, there is no particular reason for any player, even one leading after DJ, to think that he or she is among the top 0.1% of jeopardy players ever, which is where you have to end up before the expected future EV for winning starts to approach the 6-figure range. but perhaps if you are already a dominating 5+ time champ or something and this scenario occurs in your 6th game, then you might be thinking along those lines.
Well, we are talking about someone going for their 3rd win, right? So in two more wins he's probably nearing the break-even figure.. 40-50k + a tournament spot? I think the 90% 80% numbers might be a little off. 80% being a little generous, but then if he is 80%, I would expect one he misses to triple stump more than half the time (I could easily be wrong about this). Also, unless you're a robot, there's probably some extra happiness points to making the tournament, but I get that you're just strictly trying to maximize earnings.

Man though, what about all-in when you don't have a crush? If this situation is a discussion, then the 27k to 19k could be an even more profitable all-in bet.

Johnblue
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Johnblue »

Who gets into TOC first: A 3-time winner who earned $55K or a 4-time player who got $27K?

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by StevenH »

Johnblue wrote:Who gets into TOC first: A 3-time winner who earned $55K or a 4-time player who got $27K?
The 4xer; they always take number of games won first, amount of money won second.

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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Johnblue »

Thanks for the info.

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whoisalexjacob
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Re: Thursday, April 5, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by whoisalexjacob »

I had forgotten about this game. That result was a shocker.

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