FJs for the 4/2/12 week

[dhkendall]

BTW, the SPOILER has the DeNiro answer wrong.

Another one misled by tore to Raging Bull. I'd have made Raging Bull a poll choice before the wagering debate broke out.

Must've had it on your mind when you wrote the spoiler.

[jeff6286]

I am a strong advocate of never wagering more than the MSB when you are in first place going into FJ. Off the top of my head, the game that is the most glaring example of why is this one: http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=155 The argument of winning extra money and getting a ToC spot if you win only 3 or 4 games isn't enough justification for me to risk it.

I was conflicted on which poll choice to select regarding Joey's wager. I usually try to avoid statements like "never bet a dollar more than the MSB", but I'm pretty sure that I said something very similar to that in a recent game discussion. I don't have nearly as much of a problem with Joey's all-in bet as I do with cases where the leader bets just slightly more than the MSB, which is what Sahir did in the game StevenH linked to. Sometimes it's an extra $99 dollars as the leader bets to cover 2nd place by $100, and sometimes it just seems to be some number they picked out of a hat, and is enough to cover 2nd by $247 or $318 or some other seemingly random figure. (Sahir's was $299.) These bets don't have the huge upside that Joey's did of an additional 10 grand in your pocket if you're right, and the potential downside is staggering. Even if you know what wagers both of your opponents should make, I've said many times that the unpredictability of 2nd and 3rd place wagers should always be on the leader's mind when placing an FJ bet. Betting something like an extra $99 opens up the possibility that on a miss the leader might fall just below whatever number 2nd or 3rd landed on after their potentially bizarre wager, and I don't see there ever being enough upside to warrant such a huge risk.

It is essentially taking a risk that can only win you an extra $99 (or $246, on the 4/2 show, or $199, on 3/27, or $794, on 3/13, or $1,599, on 3/8) but can potentially cost you something in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 thousand on that day, plus losing the opportunity to play future games that could bring even more winnings in the tens of thousands. On the 3/8 game, David Gard bet more than the MSB, aiming to reach $20,000 if he was right, instead of $18,401 to cover second place. It didn't really matter because Jessamine had the sole get in FJ so she was winning regardless, but with a triple stumper and an unusual bet from either 2nd or 3rd, David may very well have lost out on a TOC berth because of going for the big round number instead of just making the MSB. With 4 wins and $84,700, he very well may make the TOC, but he could have been risking a potential quarter million dollar payday for a potential gain of just $1,599. I'm not saying that every player should be thinking about things as far-off as a TOC berth when making every FJ wager, but I thought the comparison between David and Joey's positions was interesting. That's also not their only connection. I'm not even sure if it was mentioned in Wednesday's thread, probably due to how easy the Kids' Week Kiddy Lit FJ was, but Joey bet more than he needed to that day as well. He just happened to bet $1,599 more than the MSB, just like David on 3/8, and I assume that he did it for the same reason as David, to reach that big round number of $20,000. If Michael, in 3rd place, had chosen to bet $0, and the Ivory Coast and Charlotte's Web FJs had swapped days, then Joey could have been sent home as a 1-day, $3,999 champion due to not making the MSB.

As for me personally, suppose I was ever in 1st place heading to FJ, (supposing as well that I can first pass the bleeping test, but I digress...) and was faced with a category like "World Series Champions", "The Back to the Future Trilogy", "List All the Presidents in Order", "Bowl Games", "Seinfeld", "College Basketball Conferences", "Days of our Lives", "Wrestlemania", or "NFL Tiebreaker Procedures". I'm pretty sure that I would go full Clavin in a heartbeat, and wouldn't have an ounce of regret if they asked me to name "this Emmy-winning Seinfeld set designer". Sure, it's always possible that they could ask something that I draw a blank on, but I would put the above list of categories in about a 98-99% range for me, and even a broader, more realistic FJ category like "Sports" or "The NFL" I would estimate myself to have around a 90-95% get rate. If Joey really felt that confident about "Political Terms", which seemed to be the key assumption at the heart of Joon's mathematical argument, then I don't have much issue with his wager. If it was less about the category and more just him deciding that he wanted to play all or nothing, then I can't say that I see the logic behind it.

[alietr]

58 votes in and no perfectos yet.

[dhkendall]

58 votes in and no perfectos yet.

Or anti-perfectos

[Bamaman]

I fixed the spoiler, but can't do anything about the spelling in the poll.

Hey, I'm doing my best. I'm not Mark. Just suffer through my crappy typo-laden polls until he gets back.

[alietr]

I fixed the spoiler, but can't do anything about the spelling in the poll.

If it was just the typo in the Kissing $600, I've taken care of it.

[Paucle]

Hey, I'm doing my best. I'm not Mark. Just suffer through my crappy typo-laden polls until he gets back.

Hey, better than I'd do. I'd make the three extra questions all stand-and-stares that I knew.

[jkbrat]

Cacciatore == hunter's style, which I knew because I eat a lot of that hoity toity (or is it fancy schmancy?) Italian food

Tuesday's FJ!: Pick an African country that has some kind of association with elephants.
Odds of guessing correctly: 1 out of approx 54 countries (OK, maybe a bit higher than that - you could probably rule out the Seychelles ...)
(Unless, of course, your Jep-prep included memorizing the symbolic statuary (and installation dates) for every country's embassy (and if it did, then consider me duly impressed!))

Brain for brain stem, but may have gotten it with a BMS.

Finally, don't want to critique Joey's bet as it's his game and his money, etc., but if it was my game and my money I wouldn't want to trade off a chance (however small) to play tomorrow for a chance (however large) to win more money today.

[xxaaaxx]

Two candidates for 'toughest FJ' in one week. Heh.

Has there ever been a week without 5/5s? Seems like no matter how 'tough' the clues are, even if they poll in the single digits, there's always someone who gets the perfecto.

[dhkendall]

Two candidates for 'toughest FJ' in one week. Heh.

One week, hell, they were back-to-back! I think this is what's giving impetus to "the writing was better in MY day" crowd ...

[Bamaman]

Hey, I'm doing my best. I'm not Mark. Just suffer through my crappy typo-laden polls until he gets back.

Hey, better than I'd do. I'd make the three extra questions all stand-and-stares that I knew.

I thought about that, but want to show off. But as poorly as I do on the bonuses, going 2-1 is showing off.

[Snaxx]

Oops it looks like Wednesday was the "Get Well Mark Barrett" box of the week, I didn't check it as I merely slapped myself after the answer was read that night.

[alietr]

Two candidates for 'toughest FJ' in one week. Heh.

One week, hell, they were back-to-back! I think this is what's giving impetus to "the writing was better in MY day" crowd ...

If you go by my definition of questions being fair but hard when the polls show the results in the 40-60% range, then they really missed the mark each and every time this week. They're not nearly as fun when they're all impossible or instagets.

Oh, and curse you, Woof!

[Volante]

If you go by my definition of questions being fair but hard when the polls show the results in the 40-60% range, then they really missed the mark each and every time this week. They're not nearly as fun when they're all impossible or instagets.

Perhaps, but are we a proper random sample size?

[CrunchyTaco]

I don't think I've ever gotten a Final Jeopardy with such a low get rate, glad I made the Ivory Coast=African elephant leap with about 5 seconds to go.

[TenPoundHammer]

I don't think I've ever gotten a Final Jeopardy with such a low get rate, glad I made the Ivory Coast=African elephant leap with about 5 seconds to go.

I think the only time that ever happened to me was the Paul Cézanne "gave Paris an apple" one. I was one of like, three people to get that one right.

[heelsrule1988]

[dhkendall]

I don't think I've ever gotten a Final Jeopardy with such a low get rate, glad I made the Ivory Coast=African elephant leap with about 5 seconds to go.

I got it 4 seconds after you did - no time to write it down (especially since by that point I had South Africa as "something to have down", and would have had to erase it), and on the show I would have been negged, but since I got it in less than 30 seconds, it's a get here.

[DadofTwins]

3/5 & 2/3. This is a recording.

I voted "None of the Above" on the wagering question. In a crush game with a potential wheelhouse FJ category, bet the amount of your lead (minus a dollar if you're paranoid). Pay what bills you can, but make sure you come back tomorrow. If you're good enough to make that kind of wager and expect to be right, play for the TOC spot rather than the single-game paycheck.

The reason I wouldn't Clavin any FJ -- Bible included -- is that I'm not going to trust the writers with my fate. Too many things can go wrong even in a wheelhouse category (a badly-written clue, overknowledge, etc.) to justify that level of confidence. I've seen it happen in the SHC: people who know way more than I do about a particular category think themselves out of the intended answer and then slap themselves in the forehead. I've also seen smart people give weird answers to what I thought were straightforward clues because their knowledge of the subject caused them to read TOM into a word choice that I never intended.

[Bamaman]

3/5 & 2/3. This is a recording.

I voted "None of the Above" on the wagering question. In a crush game with a potential wheelhouse FJ category, bet the amount of your lead (minus a dollar if you're paranoid). Pay what bills you can, but make sure you come back tomorrow. If you're good enough to make that kind of wager and expect to be right, play for the TOC spot rather than the single-game paycheck.

But then you run the risk of second place making a wager of $100 and beating you on a sole solve. There were a couple games in the last two seasons where second made a very small bet in a crush, but it wound up not mattering.

The reason I wouldn't Clavin any FJ -- Bible included -- is that I'm not going to trust the writers with my fate. Too many things can go wrong even in a wheelhouse category (a badly-written clue, overknowledge, etc.) to justify that level of confidence. I've seen it happen in the SHC: people who know way more than I do about a particular category think themselves out of the intended answer and then slap themselves in the forehead. I've also seen smart people give weird answers to what I thought were straightforward clues because their knowledge of the subject caused them to read TOM into a word choice that I never intended.

And sometimes they can pull some obscure fact out of thin air, like the Cubs on Catalina Island.