Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Volante
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

Golf wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:08 am
Golf wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:12 pm On DD David wagered $4000 of a possible $5400. Had he answered correctly, going into FJ he would have had $12600 to Amy's $25800, short of having a chance. Had he wagered properly, all $5400, he would have had $14000 and actually still been in the game.
Volante wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:04 pm I do so love these bulletins from The Fantasy Dispatch (soon to be a major motion picture by Wes Anderson)
Probably just as much as I love reading about random Coryat scores from the comfort of a couch. I'd rather discuss strategy and how to win, but am obviously in the minority here. Also why so few contestants don't know how to play.
Since he got it wrong, per you, your proper wager would be $5
so, by your math, Amy should bet $16,200
These comments are just (OK, I'll be nice) inaccurate. Assuming most here also realize such.
So let's talk strategy:
What should Amy have wagered for DD3 given scores of $16,200 / $4,200 / $12,800 ?
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

Volante wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:15 pm So let's talk strategy:
What should Amy have wagered for DD3 given scores of $16,200 / $4,200 / $12,800 ?
Definitely not an obvious answer here. Let's lay out some facts first. (I have not double checked the numbers, easily could have missed something, focusing more on the process for now)

Coryats to this point appear to be 16200/4200/8800. The 8800 assumes he answered DD2 worth 1600 correctly. 16k left on the board out of a possible 54k. So after DD3 the projected numbers would be 6800/1800/3800(rounded to the nearest possible number). So without taking DD3 into effect the numbers at the end of DJ would be 23000/6000/16800. Now, of course the projections can and will vary wildly because of sample size, etc., but it's still something to build around.

As of this writing, she is 80% on FJ and 87% on DD's. So if she wagers everything she wins 87% of the time. This is a 4th row DD so I might shave a few percentage points off that 87%, maybe 85%.

These totals don't give Amy a lock or a crush, so the min wager is probably out. So I'd want to find a number that very rarely puts her behind on a miss at the end of DJ. The difference above is 6200 but again with a lot of variation. If we do this she has a crush when she answers the DD correctly and is merely in the lead if she answers incorrectly. So 85% crush, 15% lead.

Final Jeopardy numbers, she answers correctly 80% of the time. Based on the various R/W numbers, let's estimate WR=8%, WW=12%. So she loses in the crush scenario 8% of the time, loses 20% of the time while in the lead. And the 20% number assumes 2nd place knows how to wager in this situation, which of course doesn't happen often enough.

So that leaves (.85)(.92)+(.15)(.80)=.902. This wager wins 90.2% of the time, significantly better than going all in on DD3 and winning 85% of the time.

Are these numbers perfect? Of course not. But they're close. And they give us a decent foundation on what to do.

So what's the wager? Again 6200 possible with lots of variance. In this situation I'm nearly positive you have to error on the low side, because with the 80% FJ get rate being in the lead is paramount. Without running more numbers I feel approximately 3000 on the low side, approximately 4000 on the high side. Category independent of course.

Now, all that said, naturally nobody can be expected to do all that in a few seconds on stage. But going through various scenarios like this in detail can help build a few platforms where you know how to wager in tricky situations. And this situation is one of the most tricky any contestant will face on the show. Most are simple, you either wager the min or the max. The nasty ones are the inbetweeners.

If I made a numbers mistake above then so be it. The concept is what's important.
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Volante
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

You can get the game scores here, if that helps: https://www.j-archive.com/showscores.php?game_id=7238

So, a $6,200 wager puts her at $28,000 at end of game to David's $14,000. She wouldn't wager a x200, and there's surprisingly little past history where an opponent is close in score to her, but if she has less than double the current 2nd place, a typical trend I see when she's not solely playing with house money was to wager enough to go a over the current 2nd's double up and it's not -aggressive- per se.

Given how close the scores would have been, practically, I think we're looking at an $8000 instead of a $4000, which would end in a lock.
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jeff6286
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

Volante wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:32 pm You can get the game scores here, if that helps: https://www.j-archive.com/showscores.php?game_id=7238

So, a $6,200 wager puts her at $28,000 at end of game to David's $14,000. She wouldn't wager a x200, and there's surprisingly little past history where an opponent is close in score to her, but if she has less than double the current 2nd place, a typical trend I see when she's not solely playing with house money was to wager enough to go a over the current 2nd's double up and it's not -aggressive- per se.

Given how close the scores would have been, practically, I think we're looking at an $8000 instead of a $4000, which would end in a lock.
I cannot recall a single instance of her wagering as high as $8000 in an attempt to nail down a lock. I would consider the odds of this happening in this hypothetical extremely slim.

Of her 53 DDs found, she has just twice bet over $7000, which is the cutoff for the 20 highest DD wagers of the season. One was in the "words in elements" category which I suspect she correctly saw as free money and even then her $9000 wager was less than half of her total. The other she bet $8000 when leading $24000 to $5600 pretty early in DJ. My best guess as to why that wager was so large is that she had already seen (and known) 4 clues in the category and expected the bottom row clue to be equally gettable.
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Robert K S »

jeff6286 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:36 am I cannot recall a single instance of her wagering as high as $8000 in an attempt to nail down a lock.
Amy wagered this much in a couple of games... whether it was "to nail down a lock" or not, well--

In show #8524, aired 2021-12-02, at DJ!2 (at clue 15), a Daily Double was discovered in the category WORDS IN ELEMENTS. Amy had a score of $19,400 and a lead of $15,600. Amy's wager was $9,000. She got it right. She had not clinched the lock before or after the wager--but the wager did help her clinch a four-fifths lead.
In show #8545, aired 2021-12-31, at DJ!1 (at clue 9--so pretty early in the DJ! Round), a Daily Double was discovered in the category MODERN FOLK HEROES. Amy had a score of $24,000 and a lead of $18,400. She got it right. She had not clinched the lock before or after the wager.
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Volante
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Re: Monday, January 10, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

Robert K S wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:01 am
jeff6286 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:36 am I cannot recall a single instance of her wagering as high as $8000 in an attempt to nail down a lock.
Amy wagered this much in a couple of games... whether it was "to nail down a lock" or not, well--

In show #8524, aired 2021-12-02, at DJ!2 (at clue 15), a Daily Double was discovered in the category WORDS IN ELEMENTS. Amy had a score of $19,400 and a lead of $15,600. Amy's wager was $9,000. She got it right. She had not clinched the lock before or after the wager--but the wager did help her clinch a four-fifths lead.
In show #8545, aired 2021-12-31, at DJ!1 (at clue 9--so pretty early in the DJ! Round), a Daily Double was discovered in the category MODERN FOLK HEROES. Amy had a score of $24,000 and a lead of $18,400. She got it right. She had not clinched the lock before or after the wager.
What's harder is there's also very few cases of her getting a DD when an opponent is reasonably close (and even fewer if you ignore early DD1s). But there are enough 7Ks and 8Ks to indicate she's not afraid of them.

And, really, the underlying point I'm trying to make is while we can reasonably assume regular clues play out, -not- recalculating DDs that come after a previous hypothetical DD calculation is a major error.
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