Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

[BigDaddyMatty]

Coryat: $36,400
42 R/1 W
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: boogie-woogie, privileged, pretzel logic, The Executioner's Song, Pittsburgh (DD), Alpha Centauri, Shoemaker-Levy

Wow. Sarah had everything lined up. As soon as the FJ! came up, I thought for sure Mattea was toast. A clue on the consensus #1 movie of all time, spotting newsreels and Xanadu? But alas, for all of Sarah's good gets, classic movies are apparently not among her strong suits. Good get by Mattea. Every superchamp needs a few bounces to go their way, and she made the most of this one.

Sarah led 17600 to 11400 to minus 2000 at DD3. Adding 5000 increased the lead, but did not give her a runaway at the point. Mattea, on this day, says gracias.

Yet another contestant playing not to lose against a 22-time champion instead of playing to win. Of course the DD3 wager should not surprise anybody after leaving $200 on the table on DD1.

I think this is the third time a contestant has let Mattea up off the mat when she should have been toast.

And yeah, that DD3 wager... if you're not confident, it's not so bad to bet $5. But Sarah was clearly playing fantastically. She has to try and go for the win right there. The middle ground between $5 and a bet that ends the game on a get is never the correct choice.

As Mark points out, Sarah was leading $17600 to $11400 when she uncovered DD3. There was $7200 left on the board, so Sarah couldn't guarantee a lock even if she went TDD. Are you two suggesting that TDD (or something very close to it) was the only correct wager in this scenario? I would have liked to see her wager an extra 300 to make the game temporarily a runaway and force Mattea to chase her, but I don't see how her wager was egregiously bad.

[econgator]

This is one of the most YEKIOYD FJ!s I've ever seen in my life.

I think the aforementioned poll question (about solving FJ! without having seen the movie) will give the lie to this claim.

I wouldn't think so. The claim is not You've Either Seen the Movie Or You Haven't. Those who haven't and who got the clue probably knew the trivia chestnut that Xanadu is the name of Kane's Hearst Castle. The only other way in is to know that Citizen Kane starts with a newsreel. That would be the poll option to give the lie to the claim: "I wasn't sure which movie was being referred to so I just guessed one that starts with a newsreel."

I've never seen the film and my knowledge of the movie is pretty much Orson Welles and Rosebud.

Also, how the hell do you not know what an Honor Flight is, Ken?

[seaborgium]

Sarah didn't need to make the Golf-recommended wager; she just needed Mattea to have done so in the previous DD.

Yet another contestant playing not to lose against a 22-time champion instead of playing to win.

"Yet another"? How many games with 22-time champions have you seen?

[Mathew5000]

MOVIES THAT START WITH NEWSREELS would probably make a good regular-category list.

This comes to mind.

Spoiler

That's not a newsreel, but a variation of the spinning papers trope.

"a black and white newsreel" (are there color ones?)

Yes: https://thisdayintechhistory.com/01/05/ ... -newsreel/

[Volante]

Went stargazing yesterday...it was still earlyish, but the only one I could see was Sirius...light pollution sucks.

I'm too lazy to go back and change my score, but I'm starting to doubt my 'Proxima Centauri' would be acceptable over 'Alpha Centauri'...the former being a single star, not also a designation for a system.

Distinguishing between Shoemaker-Levy and Hale-Bopp spur of the moment these days is dirty pool.

Physics Girl released a video on that permafrost cave five days ago:

Skidoo: https://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=7346

Not -quite- done there; should be a correction pending

[econgator]

Distinguishing between Shoemaker-Levy and Hale-Bopp spur of the moment these days is dirty pool.

Not when spotted that it crashed into Jupiter.

[MarkBarrett]

...
Not -quite- done there; should be a correction pending

Saw one for fixing a category name and one for the missing ZergCam link. Handled.

When I post the game link in the daily thread I know there is always clean-up work to do and I check in on the thread and the correction suggestions from time to time.

[twelvefootboy]

I watched Citizen Kane early in the VHS era as an attempt to up my culture index. Extremely forgettable movie for me, and the end of that experiment. Popcorn movies only for me, with no graphic violence or suspense. I remembered the Olivia Newton-John movie Xanadu from 1980 and knew that was a dead end. Sarah seemed strong on entertainment categories, so I expected a double get.

From a small sample size, Sarah seemed to be the equal of Mattea. I think in a 20 question showdown of FJ caliber questions that there are two miss-makes apiece for them, and three or four miss-misses. Unfortunately, the ten percent window opened for Sarah today. She was positioned to win on a miss-miss and a make-make, so her game plan was successful. Mattea's hunch not to go big on the bridge question was also successful. Sorry for Sarah, I think she would not have been one and done.

off topic - I'm calling it here: we will see an XYZ Affair clue within a month. And Mattea will ace it if she is still playing. And I probably won't

[Linear Gnome]

I tried to watch Citizen Kane about 20 years ago but couldn't get into it. So I suppose I saw the newsreel, but I didn't consciously remember it. Still, I guessed correctly because it seemed to fit.

I fault Sarah most for not writing down a friggin' movie. I once had a quiz bowl teammate who told us about a time he accidentally buzzed after the moderator had said "She was..."; he named the first dead woman he could think of, who happened to be Marilyn Monroe, who happened to be correct.

[Woof]

Finally someone faster then Mattea on the buzzer. For FJ, I put together newsreel, Xanadu and pleasure dome and came up with the correct response. Despite having watched the movie twice, I didn’t recall the name of the Hearst Castle stand-in.

[squarekara]

MOVIES THAT START WITH NEWSREELS would probably make a good regular-category list.

This comes to mind.

Spoiler

That's not a newsreel, but a variation of the spinning papers trope.

Agreed. The moving images under the headlines relay a newsreel vibe in the absence of narration.

[finishemzoe]

With this win, we now have three future participants of the 2022 Tournament of Champions ranked in the top 10 highest earnings of all time: Matt Amodio in 4th, Amy Schneider in 5th, and now Mattea Roach in 9th. Probably the most dramatic ending I've seen in quite some time, and I thought the Mattea/Ben match was also extremely suspenseful.

[Category 13]

As Mark points out, Sarah was leading $17600 to $11400 when she uncovered DD3. There was $7200 left on the board, so Sarah couldn't guarantee a lock even if she went TDD. Are you two suggesting that TDD (or something very close to it) was the only correct wager in this scenario? I would have liked to see her wager an extra 300 to make the game temporarily a runaway and force Mattea to chase her, but I don't see how her wager was egregiously bad.

I fault Sarah most for not writing down a friggin' movie.

I agree with the above.

One of my peeves is a contestant guessing their way out of contention. Sarah did well with only two wrong responses, but one of them was a 2000 clue.
With that amount added (if she had stayed clam) perhaps it would have been enough to give her the confidence to bet more on the last DD. Maybe enough for the lock. Also, it could have caused Mattea to panic if she had to chase a runnaway score, which could possibly draw multiple bad guesses. I have observed panic-esq behavior by her in past games when she was trailing in the last half of DJ.

I couldn't dredge The Executioner's Song before the times-up signal but I knew damn well the Gary Gillmore book was not Dead Man Walking or The Green Mile.

[jev15]

It's easy if you know it. Mattea knew the FJ! clue and I was done writing before Ken finished reading the clue. Movies have a long tradition of biting J! players and today it cost Sarah. It was obvious Sarah was lost on the clue and that Mattea would win, early during the music.

Sarah can make the excuse that she has never seen the film. I'll poll solving the clue and not having seen the film and there will be a fair sampling of voters checking the box.

You know that Cinema & everything movie-related is a weakness for me. Never saw the movie, but the Xanadu reference made this an instaget.

Ditto.
Citizen Kane is consistently rated as the best movie ever. So, you need to know little bit about it if you are getting on J!

If it wasn't taking me to Google for results, the archive would let me see how often it has come up in the past five years. I don't disagree with you, but I do feel pop culture has a shelf life, and this one is like a McDonald's container of fries on the pop culture shelf.

Citizen Kane isn't just "pop culture," it's art. It's every bit as influential and lasting as Guernica and Beethoven's Fifth. Just because Hollywood has given up on the idea of film as an artform doesn't make it so.

[yclept]

Mattea close calls:
Game 3: If second place doesn’t overbet on her FJ miss, Mattea goes home on her own miss;
Game 5: Michael owns a small lead going into FJ but misses;
Game 10: Mattea and second place both miss FJ. Third place gets it right but doesn’t bet enough to overtake Mattea;
Game 13: Mattea misses FJ, but so does second place. No bad wager here, though;
Game 23: Sarah plays the best overall game yet against Mattea and has a significant lead going into FJ but misses. A bigger DD wager likely makes this a runaway,

Plus, she has two games where she has exactly double her nearest opponent heading into FJ but gets them right and bets the lockout $1.

I am not downplaying her performance! She constantly puts herself in position to win every game she plays, often in dominant fashion. But she has her share of close calls - likely more than the other double digit champs in history.

[davey]

It's easy if you know it. Mattea knew the FJ! clue and I was done writing before Ken finished reading the clue. Movies have a long tradition of biting J! players and today it cost Sarah. It was obvious Sarah was lost on the clue and that Mattea would win, early during the music.

Sarah can make the excuse that she has never seen the film. I'll poll solving the clue and not having seen the film and there will be a fair sampling of voters checking the box.

You know that Cinema & everything movie-related is a weakness for me. Never saw the movie, but the Xanadu reference made this an instaget.

Ditto.
Citizen Kane is consistently rated as the best movie ever. So, you need to know little bit about it if you are getting on J!

If it wasn't taking me to Google for results, the archive would let me see how often it has come up in the past five years. I don't disagree with you, but I do feel pop culture has a shelf life, and this one is like a McDonald's container of fries on the pop culture shelf.

Citizen Kane isn't just "pop culture," it's art. It's every bit as influential and lasting as Guernica and Beethoven's Fifth. Just because Hollywood has given up on the idea of film as an artform doesn't make it so.

I was with you until you veered into your own rant. "Hollywood" is a broad brush to signify American movies, and "Hollywood" didn't know what to make of Citizen Kane when it came out, either.

[jeff6286]

Sarah led 17600 to 11400 to minus 2000 at DD3. Adding 5000 increased the lead, but did not give her a runaway at the point. Mattea, on this day, says gracias.

Yet another contestant playing not to lose against a 22-time champion instead of playing to win. Of course the DD3 wager should not surprise anybody after leaving $200 on the table on DD1.

I think this is the third time a contestant has let Mattea up off the mat when she should have been toast.

And yeah, that DD3 wager... if you're not confident, it's not so bad to bet $5. But Sarah was clearly playing fantastically. She has to try and go for the win right there. The middle ground between $5 and a bet that ends the game on a get is never the correct choice.

As Mark points out, Sarah was leading $17600 to $11400 when she uncovered DD3. There was $7200 left on the board, so Sarah couldn't guarantee a lock even if she went TDD. Are you two suggesting that TDD (or something very close to it) was the only correct wager in this scenario? I would have liked to see her wager an extra 300 to make the game temporarily a runaway and force Mattea to chase her, but I don't see how her wager was egregiously bad.

I wouldn't say she has to bet to "guarantee" the lock but a larger figure could have substantially increased her chances. Basically it's not about doing the math and assuming Mattea will get all of the remaining $7200 and then trying to double that but rather try to ballpark how much are each of us likely to get on the remaining clues.

Betting $5000 put her within a few bucks of a lock but even adding another $300 as you suggest, she has to still double Mattea on the remaining clues to maintain the lock. Which likely means Mattea has to get at most 1 of the final four. (If Mattea gets $1600 then Sarah has to get at least $1600+$2000, if Mattea gets $2000 then Sarah has to get all of $1600+$1600+$2000)

I would say the $5000 was among the worst possible ranges. On the plus side it gave her an outside chance at a lock and nearly ensures she will finish with a crush, but the big downside is if she misses she has given away nearly her entire lead and Mattea could pass her with any one of the remaining four clues. Mattea is 74% on FJ, though Sarah doesn't have access to that information. But facing an unknown champion and being told they have won 20+ games, you've got to assume they are very strong on FJ (and in most/all parts of the game, probably) Matt was 74%, Amy was 68%, compared to all players being right at 50% this season. (Jazon Z was only 55% so this is hardly foolproof.) The point of this being, the crush is only worthwhile to you if the other player misses FJ, and my suspicion from a challenger's podium would be that this champion probably doesn't miss often.

I think it is better to go either a much bigger or much smaller. If you're not going to go for the kill, I would sacrifice the crush in exchange for ensuring I finish with the lead, bet $5 or $100 or even the standard $2000 if you must, and on a miss you still lead by over $4000 and on a get you still have a shot at the crush.

So the other option is to go big, the question being how big is big enough? Betting it all is probably too rash, I think even Golf might agree. $10,000 looks decent at first glance, makes the score $27600 to $11400 on a get, Mattea would need at least $2400 to break the lock but if Sarah can add a single additional clue, minimum $1600, that takes her to $29200 and now Mattea needs at least $3200, but hmm she can do that with just two clues ($1600+$2000) so maybe this isn't as good as it seems. How about a bet of $12000? Now the danger is a miss drops you to $5600 vs $11400 and you're looking at being locked out yourself.

All of these things have downsides, so when facing this choice it would be good to have done detailed preparation and know your usual get rates on DDs and FJs. If you're 80% on DD and 55% on FJ, for example, like Jason was, it probably makes a lot of sense to make that $12,000 bet and see if you can end the game right there. If you consider yourself a strong FJ player and consistently get 70% or so right, then maybe you make the small DD bet (<$2000) and mostly ensure that you keep the lead and hope to win the game in Final.

[John Boy]

over on Youtube, the conspiracy theorists are really coming out for this one...

...and saying what?

That TPTB are feeding her clues/answers beforehand? That the Russians are colluding to help her? That her bat is corked? Performance-enhancing drugs?

I honestly don't follow that stuff and I'm really curious to know.

[Bamaman]

I fall into the camp of having seen the movie as a teenager, which was so long ago that I’ve forgotten almost everything about it, including that it started with a newsreel. However, I knew from any number of sources besides the actual movie that Xanadu was the name of Kane’s estate.

That was me. I last saw it about 30 years ago and if you had asked me to describe the first scene I would have said it was Kane dying and dropping the snow globe. But I did remember the name of his house. Not sure if I could have gotten it if FJ was “Citizen Kane’s home was named this”.

[Robert K S]

MOVIES THAT START WITH SPINNING NEWSPAPERS could be another regular category. I think more than one Frank Capra film begins this way--possibly Mr. Deeds Goes to Town and It's a Wonderful Life?