Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by AFRET CMS »

Robert K S wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 4:48 pm
triviawayne wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 4:04 pm Because of "a black and white newsreel" (are there color ones?), and not really knowing much about the movie in question, I tried to picture a newer (color) movie that would've had a newsreel in it.
If that's the condition, I can think of Paddington and Up. Any others?

MOVIES THAT START WITH NEWSREELS would probably make a good regular-category list.
Not a newsreel, but A Bridge Too Far begins with a B&W newsreel-ish film clip with voiceover narration before going to color widescreen.
I'm not the defending Jeopardy! champion. But I have played one on TV.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Sherm »

jeff6286 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:21 pm
Sherm wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:08 pm
Woof wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 12:42 am Finally someone faster then Mattea on the buzzer. For FJ, I put together newsreel, Xanadu and pleasure dome and came up with the correct response. Despite having watched the movie twice, I didn’t recall the name of the Hearst Castle stand-in.
How do you feel for TJ in that mess (or his mess)? What he got is the one thing that would just destroy me. Two people that are just hammering it on the buzzer. He went 1 for 16 in the jeopardy round. In the end 6 for 32, and misses three of the six, proof that he's starting to guess later in the game.

I've told my wife. I'd love to be on that show, and the only thing that could make it a bad experience is what happened to TJ. He really didn't get much of a chance to play the game. Well, he played that game, but Mattea and Sarah didn't let him participate too much.
I dont waste too much time feeling sorry for someone in any game with double digit triple stumpers. That's by my math $13,000 worth of clues that was left unanswered. He could have been within half of the leader's score getting ONLY the clues neither other player knew. If you can't outbuzz your opponents then you better know some things they don't. If you choose to go on the show with a knowledge base that only allows you to buzz on half the clues, then well this is pretty much the likely outcome. But you got to be on tv.
If he got all 13,000 worth of the clues that your are saying got left unanswered. He still loses. Getting hammered on the buzzer like that would just stink, and in his case. He can't win the game knowing every clue on the board that goes unanswered.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

Sherm wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:22 pm
jeff6286 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:21 pm
Sherm wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:08 pm
Woof wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 12:42 am Finally someone faster then Mattea on the buzzer. For FJ, I put together newsreel, Xanadu and pleasure dome and came up with the correct response. Despite having watched the movie twice, I didn’t recall the name of the Hearst Castle stand-in.
How do you feel for TJ in that mess (or his mess)? What he got is the one thing that would just destroy me. Two people that are just hammering it on the buzzer. He went 1 for 16 in the jeopardy round. In the end 6 for 32, and misses three of the six, proof that he's starting to guess later in the game.

I've told my wife. I'd love to be on that show, and the only thing that could make it a bad experience is what happened to TJ. He really didn't get much of a chance to play the game. Well, he played that game, but Mattea and Sarah didn't let him participate too much.
I dont waste too much time feeling sorry for someone in any game with double digit triple stumpers. That's by my math $13,000 worth of clues that was left unanswered. He could have been within half of the leader's score getting ONLY the clues neither other player knew. If you can't outbuzz your opponents then you better know some things they don't. If you choose to go on the show with a knowledge base that only allows you to buzz on half the clues, then well this is pretty much the likely outcome. But you got to be on tv.
If he got all 13,000 worth of the clues that your are saying got left unanswered. He still loses. Getting hammered on the buzzer like that would just stink, and in his case. He can't win the game knowing every clue on the board that goes unanswered.
If he gets FJ, he can win :)
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Sherm »

jeff6286 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:53 pm
If he gets FJ, he can win :)
Based on his score, he'd still be behind Mattea. Not only would he need to get all of them, he'd have to know other stuff he got wrong. He buzzed in 32 times, which appears to be a little below average based on the jeopardy scoreboards going back a couple of months, but based what was happening with Mattea/Sarah, he stood no chance in that game.

Your knowledge base is what it is. You are not on the show unless you are solid with trivia. 35 or better on the test, but being weak on the buzzer. There is no plan to combat that.

Also, he may not have been that bad. We know Mattea is very good on the buzzer and Sarah was matching her. He kinda got tossed into the middle of a meatgrinder.

Jeff, I feel for anybody that gets on there and can't be around for final jeopardy, because the problem most likely has little to do with them just not knowing any of the material on the show. Those people most likely got just steamrolled on the buzzer, and then started to guess towards the end.

I would hate for that to be me.
Last edited by Sherm on Sat May 07, 2022 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MinnesotaMyron »

Does anyone remember what the J!6 clue was for the Pulitzer Novels category? I'm curious.

Thanks.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett »

MinnesotaMyron wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:13 pm Does anyone remember what the J!6 clue was for the Pulitzer Novels category? I'm curious.

Thanks.
Guessing the correct response was either The Good Earth or Lonesome Dove as those were the two that struck me as familiar for coming across them this week when scrolling down the winners list. If one was in a regular play J! clue this week then the other was surely in J!6?

As for the actual clue? It goes too fast to recall.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Mathew5000 »

MinnesotaMyron wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:13 pm Does anyone remember what the J!6 clue was for the Pulitzer Novels category? I'm curious.
http://web.archive.org/web/202205060035 ... es-more/j6

In this 1986 winner, Jake Spoon leads a group of former Texas Rangers on a big cattle drive to Montana
multiple choice options
What is "Blood Meridian"?
What is "Lonesome Dove"?
What is "All the Pretty Horses"?
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MinnesotaMyron »

Mathew5000 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:31 pm
MinnesotaMyron wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:13 pm Does anyone remember what the J!6 clue was for the Pulitzer Novels category? I'm curious.
http://web.archive.org/web/202205060035 ... es-more/j6

In this 1986 winner, Jake Spoon leads a group of former Texas Rangers on a big cattle drive to Montana
multiple choice options
What is "Blood Meridian"?
What is "Lonesome Dove"?
What is "All the Pretty Horses"?
Thanks!
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey »

You'll have to wait to cross the Forbes Ave. Bridge in this city; it collapsed in 2022 just before a presidential visit about infrastructure

Turns out the bridge in this clue, while spanning Forbes Avenue, has a different name entirely...I guess we can assume bridge shouldn't be capitalized.
https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news ... -jeopardy/
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett »

davey wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 12:35 pm You'll have to wait to cross the Forbes Ave. Bridge in this city; it collapsed in 2022 just before a presidential visit about infrastructure

Turns out the bridge in this clue, while spanning Forbes Avenue, has a different name entirely...I guess we can assume bridge shouldn't be capitalized.
https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news ... -jeopardy/
Thanks, "bridge" in lowercase now.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

BrigadierSolo13 wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 8:18 pm And yeah, that DD3 wager... if you're not confident, it's not so bad to bet $5. But Sarah was clearly playing fantastically. She has to try and go for the win right there. The middle ground between $5 and a bet that ends the game on a get is never the correct choice.
DBear wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 8:56 pm Sarah had 17,400 while Mattea had 11,400. There will be 7200 in clues left. Two are in Astronomy, a weak category for Mattea. Take the shot! :geek:
harrumph wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 9:11 pm I don't fault Sarah in the slightest for the $5,000 DD3 bet. It's a substantial wager that got her into 2/3rds, and she didn't want to risk her lead.
BrigadierSolo13 wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 9:30 pm With her wager, an incorrect response leaves her with a $1200 dollar lead with $7200 worth of clues left on the board against a 22-game winner.

No, not good enough.
BigDaddyMatty wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 9:59 pm As Mark points out, Sarah was leading $17600 to $11400 when she uncovered DD3. There was $7200 left on the board, so Sarah couldn't guarantee a lock even if she went TDD. Are you two suggesting that TDD (or something very close to it) was the only correct wager in this scenario? I would have liked to see her wager an extra 300 to make the game temporarily a runaway and force Mattea to chase her, but I don't see how her wager was egregiously bad.
jeff6286 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:19 am I wouldn't say she has to bet to "guarantee" the lock but a larger figure could have substantially increased her chances. Basically it's not about doing the math and assuming Mattea will get all of the remaining $7200 and then trying to double that but rather try to ballpark how much are each of us likely to get on the remaining clues.

Betting $5000 put her within a few bucks of a lock but even adding another $300 as you suggest, she has to still double Mattea on the remaining clues to maintain the lock. Which likely means Mattea has to get at most 1 of the final four. (If Mattea gets $1600 then Sarah has to get at least $1600+$2000, if Mattea gets $2000 then Sarah has to get all of $1600+$1600+$2000)

I would say the $5000 was among the worst possible ranges. On the plus side it gave her an outside chance at a lock and nearly ensures she will finish with a crush, but the big downside is if she misses she has given away nearly her entire lead and Mattea could pass her with any one of the remaining four clues. Mattea is 74% on FJ, though Sarah doesn't have access to that information. But facing an unknown champion and being told they have won 20+ games, you've got to assume they are very strong on FJ (and in most/all parts of the game, probably) Matt was 74%, Amy was 68%, compared to all players being right at 50% this season. (Jazon Z was only 55% so this is hardly foolproof.) The point of this being, the crush is only worthwhile to you if the other player misses FJ, and my suspicion from a challenger's podium would be that this champion probably doesn't miss often.

I think it is better to go either a much bigger or much smaller. If you're not going to go for the kill, I would sacrifice the crush in exchange for ensuring I finish with the lead, bet $5 or $100 or even the standard $2000 if you must, and on a miss you still lead by over $4000 and on a get you still have a shot at the crush.

So the other option is to go big, the question being how big is big enough? Betting it all is probably too rash, I think even Golf might agree. $10,000 looks decent at first glance, makes the score $27600 to $11400 on a get, Mattea would need at least $2400 to break the lock but if Sarah can add a single additional clue, minimum $1600, that takes her to $29200 and now Mattea needs at least $3200, but hmm she can do that with just two clues ($1600+$2000) so maybe this isn't as good as it seems. How about a bet of $12000? Now the danger is a miss drops you to $5600 vs $11400 and you're looking at being locked out yourself.

All of these things have downsides, so when facing this choice it would be good to have done detailed preparation and know your usual get rates on DDs and FJs. If you're 80% on DD and 55% on FJ, for example, like Jason was, it probably makes a lot of sense to make that $12,000 bet and see if you can end the game right there. If you consider yourself a strong FJ player and consistently get 70% or so right, then maybe you make the small DD bet (<$2000) and mostly ensure that you keep the lead and hope to win the game in Final.
CyrusChan wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:44 am Take what shot? what would you wager? If Mattea answers one of the remaining clues, she would have at least 13k, so is Sarah supposed to go for 26k? Why would she wager 9k+?

My approach would have just like hers. Try not to let Mattea get 2/3's (which I assume Mattea can possibly get 15k so my goal would be 22.5k) and be in the winning position going into FJ. It's easier to write a correct response in 30s than say a correct response in 10s.
DBear wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 12:03 pm Go ALL IN. This gives Sarah 34,800. Mattea needs to get all remaining clues to avoid the lock. As noted earlier, two are in Mattea's weak category. Why give Mattea a 25% chance (Mattea right on FJ!, Sarah wrong as actually happened) when Sarah can give Mattea 0% chance?
Sherm wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:46 pm We have the benefit are really being able to analyze the whole thing, and we know she got it right.

My gut feeling in the timeframe she had, she thought. Don't go so big that I still have room to keep the lead if I get it wrong. It appears, thats what she went for, and its not unreasonable.

Even if Sarah really goes for what is the most reasonable kill shot. IMO, you miss you still stay within 67% of the lead, WE are talking a bet of real close $10,000 and that if is someone is really good with math in their head. Had Sarah done that, Mattea was still in a position to catch her at FJ! at clue 29, and maybe Mattea doesn't take a guess on the last clue in that scenario. The end result could have still been the same.

If anyone is saying, it should have been more than 10,000, they are basically saying, win the game right there. Maybe, its the right call, but that takes some real guts for something that could end badly maybe as often as a third of time based on the stats of this thread.

Go back to one of the biggest wins ever on this show. Clue 14, Emma 20,400, James 17,800, and she bets 3,000. Really, you're playing a 32 game champ that is at 2.4 million dollars. You bet to win the game. Well, maybe not. Wait, she won.
In all the complicated DD scenarios I've run, the wager that shows the highest winning percentage is always either the min or the max. The worst is always the middle ground where you've decided nothing in terms or lockout or leading or whatever. And many people think that's the way to play it because it keeps you in the game. But staying in the game isn't the goal here. Maintaining the lead with 4 clues remaining isn't the goat here. Winning is. You make the wager that shows the highest winning chances at game's end. That's it. Even if that means being locked out going into FJ.

A DD solve rate of 67% has been thrown about so let's use that here. A TDD shows a 67% chance of beating a 22-time champion. And no, Mattea isn't going to nail the last four clues in rows 4 and 5 or DJ. There's been way too many TS's in her games and her buzz attempts just don't support that happening. One question and it's over. You are not going to get any better odds than that.

Now, let's say Sarah doesn't feel at all comfortable in that category. Fine. Let's wager the min $5 and force Mattea to get the last 4 clues(which again, she never will) to take the lead. Now at worst you've got a 50-52% chance to win the game and perhaps even force Mattea into a RW scenario as her only chance of winning. As played out, Sarah made what some here have called a good aggressive wager, answered correctly, and was still in a position she could have easily been in wagering $5. How can that be a good wager? Answer, it can't.

But honestly, it was a 3rd row clue. If you can't answer a 3rd row clue given the extra time for DD's against a 22-time champion, you probably don't deserve to win. Again, go TDD. 67% chance to win is a very simple, very binary situation.

But let's face facts, the intersection of players who have the necessary Jeopardy chops and those who understand how to play the game and can apply it under the lights is very small. That's why James Holzhauer can average roughly $75k per game for 32 games. That's also why Mattea escaped three certain losses that a player with any game theory sense would have dealt her.

And yes, players make horrible wagers on Jeopardy all the time and still win, that's part of what happens in a sample size of 1.

Regardless, I'm very happy for Mattea. This is life changing money for somebody of that age and it opens up countless doors for her to take advantage of. I wish her nothing but the best.

Oh, one last thing, The Pittsburgh Pirates played in Forbes Field for many years. :lol:
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CyrusChan »

Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

CyrusChan wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
Absolutely. That’s why it’s mind boggling when contestants don’t go TDD on a 2nd row DD. Or why they wager the same silly round number regardless of DD placement.

At the bottom of each season’s page at j-archive is a tab that shows all the DD stats so you can see for yourself.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by triviawayne »

Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:29 pm
CyrusChan wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
Absolutely. That’s why it’s mind boggling when contestants don’t go TDD on a 2nd row DD. Or why they wager the same silly round number regardless of DD placement.

At the bottom of each season’s page at j-archive is a tab that shows all the DD stats so you can see for yourself.
While mostly true, I would add DDs tend to be a little bit easier for the value because of the way they are written.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

triviawayne wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 4:42 pm
Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:29 pm
CyrusChan wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
Absolutely. That’s why it’s mind boggling when contestants don’t go TDD on a 2nd row DD. Or why they wager the same silly round number regardless of DD placement.

At the bottom of each season’s page at j-archive is a tab that shows all the DD stats so you can see for yourself.
While mostly true, I would add DDs tend to be a little bit easier for the value because of the way they are written.
Agreed they are slightly easier. My thought was that you have the clue all to yourself, and can take your time and work through every word.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

If her opponent in her third game knew how to wager in FJ she’d be a long forgotten two day champ.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

I should have gotten this FJ. I started off by thinking about Lost Horizon, but I couldn't pull the name. So instead of thinking the clue through like I should have, I was stuck trying to come up with the title.

My uncle came to DC on an Honor Flight, and I got to chaperone him around for part of the day. Really neat what they do for those veterans and the attention they get. Plus I've been at National Airport a few time when one of those flights arrives. They get a nice round of applause as they deplane.
DBear wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 3:53 pm over on Youtube, the conspiracy theorists are really coming out for this one... :roll:
I'm still waiting to hear more about this.
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by brick »

Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 4:59 pm
triviawayne wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 4:42 pm
Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:29 pm
CyrusChan wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
Absolutely. That’s why it’s mind boggling when contestants don’t go TDD on a 2nd row DD. Or why they wager the same silly round number regardless of DD placement.

At the bottom of each season’s page at j-archive is a tab that shows all the DD stats so you can see for yourself.
While mostly true, I would add DDs tend to be a little bit easier for the value because of the way they are written.
Agreed they are slightly easier. My thought was that you have the clue all to yourself, and can take your time and work through every word.
Hang on... I though that the DD spots were randomly assigned after the board was set, so that theoretically any clue could be a DD clue. These comments sound like DD clues are specifically written as such. Does anyone know?
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by triviawayne »

brick wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:35 pm
Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 4:59 pm
triviawayne wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 4:42 pm
Golf wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:29 pm
CyrusChan wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm Does "difficulty " apply as you go further down, even in categories containing the DD?
Absolutely. That’s why it’s mind boggling when contestants don’t go TDD on a 2nd row DD. Or why they wager the same silly round number regardless of DD placement.

At the bottom of each season’s page at j-archive is a tab that shows all the DD stats so you can see for yourself.
While mostly true, I would add DDs tend to be a little bit easier for the value because of the way they are written.
Agreed they are slightly easier. My thought was that you have the clue all to yourself, and can take your time and work through every word.
Hang on... I though that the DD spots were randomly assigned after the board was set, so that theoretically any clue could be a DD clue. These comments sound like DD clues are specifically written as such. Does anyone know?
They are not randomly placed, this is why Watson went right for the left-most $1600 clue to begin DJ
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Re: Thursday, May 5, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

triviawayne wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:47 pm They are not randomly placed, this is why Watson went right for the left-most $1600 clue to begin DJ
Random seed, but weighted distribution.
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