New ToC format speculation thread

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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by opusthepenguin »

Robert K S wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:23 pm
opusthepenguin wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:14 pm This is a great idea but it doesn't go far enough! Stop having auditions that people have to get invited to and then selected from. EVERYBODY who passes the online test gets a shot.
FTFY?
Let's try to stay serious here, Robert.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by zzplaysfaster »

Hi All,
I posted in the wrong thread last week and thought more about the format. My thoughts:

If it's 18 people, I would say the format would be similar to the SCT with one exception being that the highest non-winning score from the Semis would advance into the 2-day Final. Two pods of 9 you seed Matt & Amy on opposite sides and people/gender to avoid rematches and keep the mix even. Also, assuming Matt/Amy win or at least one of them wins in the Semis would help select the strongest challenger among them in the Semis among the non-winners. This format would stay within the normal 2-week timeframe and to get to the finals a person still needs to win at least 1 game + WC or 2 games.

If it's 21 people, I see two possibilities. 7 days of Quarterfinals where the winners advance + 2 wildcards. Semis and Finals play out like normal. This only extends the TOC by 2 days.

Another 21 people format is that you have 7 days of Quarterfinals, but add this twist. The 5 highest game winning scores are guaranteed to advance to the Semi-Finals. The two lowest game winning scores are then compared with all the remaining non-winning scores to select the 4 WC Semifinalists, so in essence winning a Quarterfinal match with a low score may not guarantee advancement to the Semi-Finals and creates some new potential strategies with how to handle FJ in the Quarters. Considering how strong this TOC field is, this could be an option and like the other 21 player format only extends the TOC by 2 days.

The last idea with either 18 or 21 I guess would be a double-elimination tournament with the survivors playing in the 2 game final but I don't know how the bracket/seeding set up would look like or how long it would take. I'm thinking something along the lines of the CWS in Omaha, but not sure if this is feasible.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by waterloo_guy »

Wouldn’t the simplest approach be 7 quarterfinal games with the 7 winners and 2 wild cards advancing to the semis, then the usual 3 semifinal games followed by a two game final? 12 days total.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by finishemzoe »

I still think they're gonna do some kind of "bye" format, where a certain amount of people will advance to the next round.

I'm confident, and hope, that it'll be a 21-player lineup. So everyone from Amy Schneider to Maureen O'Neil. Emily Fiasco (3x, $87,201) and Yungsheng Wang (3x, $84,202) as two possible alternates.

I'm envisioning 6 people get automatic byes to the "quarterfinals," thus leaving 15 people to play the first week. I suspect those 6 players will be the following:

1.) Amy Schneider (40x, $1,382,800)

2.) Matt Amodio (38x, $1,518,601)

3.) Mattea Roach (23x, $560,983)

4.) Ryan Long (16x, $299,400)

5.) Jonathan Fisher (11x, $246,100)

6.) Jaskaran Singh (NCC, $250,000)

They could also give the sixth spot to Brian Chang (7x, $163,904) as he is next in line going by pure wins and money, though he's not much farther ahead than players like Courtney Shah (7x, $118,558), Eric Ahasic (6x, $160,601), or even Andrew He (5x, $157,365).

And so, 6 of the lowest-scoring non-winners will be eliminated from the "preliminaries" in the first week, thus leaving 15 for the rest of the tournament in which it'll play out like a regular TOC (quarterfinals of 15, semifinals of 9, finals of 3). Effectively making it a three-week tournament.

Anyway it's Monday now where's that roster? :x
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by Mathew5000 »

waterloo_guy wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:53 am Wouldn’t the simplest approach be 7 quarterfinal games with the 7 winners and 2 wild cards advancing to the semis, then the usual 3 semifinal games followed by a two game final? 12 days total.
Anyone competing in a quarterfinal game with wild-card spots up for grabs cannot be allowed to know the scores in previously played quarterfinal games, so sequestration is required. Thus all seven episodes would need to be shot in one day, which poses some logistical issues. (As Vermonter noted in an earlier thread, the so-called "Elite 18" of the Ultimate Tournament of Champions played the six games of Round 3 in one day. I'm pretty sure Jeopardy! has never filmed seven in one day.)
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by Bamaman »

Here's the problem I have giving byes to the top winners. Not every season is going to have a 40 and 38 game winner. Sure, you can look at the S38 standings and see how dominant the top three are in games won.

But if the top champ in S39 wins eight games, do the top three or six really deserve special treatment? Do they change the format every year depending on how many qualify? This season we have 14 automatics who won a tournament or five games. But suppose we have a season with only seven five game champs. How far down should they dip to get a field of 21?
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by GoodStrategy »

zzplaysfaster wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:00 pmAnother 21 people format is that you have 7 days of Quarterfinals, but add this twist. The 5 highest game winning scores are guaranteed to advance to the Semi-Finals. The two lowest game winning scores are then compared with all the remaining non-winning scores to select the 4 WC Semifinalists, so in essence winning a Quarterfinal match with a low score may not guarantee advancement to the Semi-Finals and creates some new potential strategies with how to handle FJ in the Quarters. Considering how strong this TOC field is, this could be an option and like the other 21 player format only extends the TOC by 2 days.
Given the unpopularity of what happened in the NCC with one of the semifinalists not moving on, I think any format where winning a game does not guarantee moving on is verboten now.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by opusthepenguin »

I don't like byes because they reduce the chance for dramatic upsets. Amodio or Schneider going down in the quarterfinals would be a stunner.

On the other hand, I can see that it might seem unfair that 4 players will have to face Amodio or Schneider in a quarterfinal while other players will have much better odds of advancing.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by MinnesotaMyron »

Robert K S wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:30 pm So we get 6 QF games?

And possibly 6 Finals games.

(Or even 7, actually. That would be something.)
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by finishemzoe »

21 players - 6 QF games, all winners advance. No wildcards anymore... 3 SF games (Amy, Matt, and Mattea all get byes to the semis for being 20+ game winners), and a GOAT-style final (first to 3 out of 7 wins).

Not quite the format I was predicting, but I was relatively close. Honestly, I'm about it. The long-standing tradition of 15 players, wildcard scores, and such was getting pretty old and I think this is a good way for the show to move forward.

I do kind of think it's funny how they kept stressing for several months that being eligible and on the tracker doesn't guarantee you a spot in the Tournament of Champions, just to invite them all anyway.



I guess this means that we can officially mark Jackie, John, Margaret, Christine (congrats Charis!!!), and Maureen's games on the archive too.
Last edited by finishemzoe on Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by hbomb1947 »

Bamaman wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:50 am Here's the problem I have giving byes to the top winners. Not every season is going to have a 40 and 38 game winner. Sure, you can look at the S38 standings and see how dominant the top three are in games won.

But if the top champ in S39 wins eight games, do the top three or six really deserve special treatment? Do they change the format every year depending on how many qualify? This season we have 14 automatics who won a tournament or five games. But suppose we have a season with only seven five game champs. How far down should they dip to get a field of 21?
We also don't know if there will be any future Second Chance Tournaments or, if so, whether they'll be an annual affair. It may well be that the norm in most seasons will be a 15-player field as in prior TOC's; but based on Davies' comments during the podcast, I think the new format for final round is here to stay.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by MinnesotaMyron »

What are the odds that the online TV listings spoil the number of games of the TOC finals?
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by cf1140 »

cf1140 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:52 am 11 days, on wildcards. 6 quarterfinals; Matt, Amy, Mattea get byes to the semifinals. Two-day regular final.
I was the closest. What do I win?
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by Bamaman »

Part of me hopes for three upsets in the SF round.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by MarkBarrett »

Mods: Feel free to clean up the quad post above.

Comments about the 8/15 podcast:
Funny to hear the Steve Martin mention for Sam Buttrey.
Matt played under 6 hosts and Ken will make 7.
Mattea is them.
Ryan's necklace and Margaret Shelton's eyewear got mentions.
Possibility of breaking the internet by airing the practice game with Amy, Matt and Mattea since they have to rehearse.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by MarkBarrett »

UTOC Nifty 9 who got byes: https://jeopardyhistory.fandom.com/wiki ... to_Round_2

2 winners and 7 done
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by TheTabbyWhisperer »

I don't like byes. Everybody should have to do the work. And I like the "wager for a wild card" element too.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by MattKnowles »

cf1140 wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:43 pm
cf1140 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:52 am 11 days, on wildcards. 6 quarterfinals; Matt, Amy, Mattea get byes to the semifinals. Two-day regular final.
I was the closest. What do I win?
Nice prediction. You're the winner! Congrats.

Although I do remember having to read your original post several times before I figured out what "on wildcards" was.
I had a dream that I was asleep and then I woke up and Jeopardy! was on.
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Re: New ToC format speculation thread

Post by opusthepenguin »

Bamaman wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 9:19 pm Part of me hopes for three upsets in the SF round.
I'd be down for that! But this year's big 3 give good Jeopardy!, so I'm also cool with their predictable advance to a slugfest final. I'd like to see Mattea win that, just for the upset value.

I've learned to stop worrying and love the bye, but I'm kind of disappointed about the lack of wildcards. I like thinking through how this ought to affect wagering.
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