Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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legendneverdies
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by legendneverdies »

dhkendall wrote: "Micha[e]l" likewise isn't a popular woman's name any more either (save Ms. Learned), .")
Only other Michael I've heard of for a female name is game show host Geoff Edwards' wife.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by phi »

I don't understand why Blythe's wager is so terrible. jboard's own wagering calculator suggests a wager of <$5200 for Dan, so Blythe's bet gave her an additional chance to win if the other players wagered rationally and answered FJ incorrectly. Obviously, in this case it didn't work out, but that doesn't mean her bet was atrocious. Or am I missing something obvious?

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by marpocky »

TenPoundHammer wrote:NHO "Core curriculum" or "venous". (I thought "of the vein" was "venal" for some reason, and clammed.)
But surely you've heard of the planet or goddess Venus, right? (forget one which one was in the clue) Even if you've never heard the word "venous" it's a plausible fit given the Venus match.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by marpocky »

phi wrote:I don't understand why Blythe's wager is so terrible. jboard's own wagering calculator suggests a wager of <$5200 for Dan, so Blythe's bet gave her an additional chance to win if the other players wagered rationally and answered FJ incorrectly. Obviously, in this case it didn't work out, but that doesn't mean her bet was atrocious. Or am I missing something obvious?
Never, never, never, NEVER count on this.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by marpocky »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Paucle wrote:4 out of 5 in Country Duets. Proud of me, TPH? (Years in retail music helped there. )
Which one did you miss? Miranda?
I also had 4/5, but missed the Orbison one. I know very well who both singers are, just had no idea they'd ever recorded together

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer »

marpocky wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:NHO "Core curriculum" or "venous". (I thought "of the vein" was "venal" for some reason, and clammed.)
But surely you've heard of the planet or goddess Venus, right? (forget one which one was in the clue) Even if you've never heard the word "venous" it's a plausible fit given the Venus match.
I still held back since it didn't seem to fit the other half.
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by dhkendall »

marpocky wrote:
phi wrote:I don't understand why Blythe's wager is so terrible. jboard's own wagering calculator suggests a wager of <$5200 for Dan, so Blythe's bet gave her an additional chance to win if the other players wagered rationally and answered FJ incorrectly. Obviously, in this case it didn't work out, but that doesn't mean her bet was atrocious. Or am I missing something obvious?
Never, never, never, NEVER count on this.
Then what's the point of wagering at all, since you have no idea what the other player will bet, you can't make any kind of wager ! Might as well must make it a round number then ...
marpocky wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:
Paucle wrote:4 out of 5 in Country Duets. Proud of me, TPH? (Years in retail music helped there. )
Which one did you miss? Miranda?
I also had 4/5, but missed the Orbison one. I know very well who both singers are, just had no idea they'd ever recorded together
That was my only get in the category (along with the first one, "Islands in the Stream" was a favourite song of mine when I was 12), I was familiar with the song, and Orbison's voice is so very distinctive ...
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator »

marpocky wrote:
phi wrote:I don't understand why Blythe's wager is so terrible. jboard's own wagering calculator suggests a wager of <$5200 for Dan, so Blythe's bet gave her an additional chance to win if the other players wagered rationally and answered FJ incorrectly. Obviously, in this case it didn't work out, but that doesn't mean her bet was atrocious. Or am I missing something obvious?
Never, never, never, NEVER count on this.
Hell, never assume a rational wager. Most of them aren't.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by teapot37 »

I said Martha on FJ. I had no idea that Abigail was one of David's wives and I didn't know any of the Hebrew roots. Plus, I don't know if I would classify Fillmore as an "early" president.
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

econgator wrote:
Paucle wrote:Interesting wager from our champion-- like she gave it no real consideration, just carefree pick a number for a round total wager. One might say she wagered Blythely.
Not the word I'd use. Anyone who wagers solely to end up on a round number deserves to lose.
The Blythe Paradox? (I like that note)

On the same note, the DJ round was fun to watch, better categories than the J! round in my book. But my jaw dropped when I saw that wager.
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett »

Martha for me in failing to pull the trigger on a switch to Abigail. Rachel was a third name I considered. There was enough in the clue to steer me the right way, but I let two Marthas associated with truly early presidents that I didn't change my response. First Names is not a category I like to see, but with a Bible/Presidents combination it should have been a solve.

4/5 for me in Country as well with Orbison the stumper as I could find no way to match Don McLean with Lang. Early '80s music is usually money in the bank, so Dolly was proper for the first box. Name the spouse for the next two seemed to be the way to guess even though the songs meant nothing to me. Willie & Waylon was easier for $2000 than the two above I got.

4/5 in Rotten Tomatoes, but 0/5 for seeing any of the movies. I was hopeful there would be one trashy film I could have bragged/embarrassed myself about seeing.

Blythe's wager only disappointed me as I thought she had the second win based on what she did last night. I've seen it too many times to be surprised or mad. Dan needs to take advantage of escaping game one and do some more damage. Wait, I can't say that. It's boardie day tomorrow.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by stevo4212 »

If I can get away with calling this a statement, or question, rather than a complaint: Was there a TOM I didn't see on the Miller-bagpipe question? Any hint that the Miller was Scottish? Was Chaucer Scottish? Is "droning instrument" an obvious jab at bagpipes? I guess that player just read the Canterbury Tales, good for him.

Terrible game for me. No way to get FJ - Never would have come up with Abigail Fillmore. I guess first ladies is an absolute must memorize for J! purposes. I was thinking early presidents meant first six. Now, I think it actually refers to the presidents before Lincoln.
Last edited by stevo4212 on Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpahk »

phi wrote:I don't understand why Blythe's wager is so terrible. jboard's own wagering calculator suggests a wager of <$5200 for Dan, so Blythe's bet gave her an additional chance to win if the other players wagered rationally and answered FJ incorrectly. Obviously, in this case it didn't work out, but that doesn't mean her bet was atrocious. Or am I missing something obvious?
no, you are not missing anything obvious; nearly everybody else is missing something, although i would not call it obvious.

i don't find it at all surprising that jeopardy contestants often demonstrate a lack of understanding of wagering theory; what i do find surprising is that obsessive jeopardy fans, who have watched, scrutinized, and overanalyzed the hell out of the show for years demonstrate a lack of wagering theory. let me put it this way: there are no guarantees. you can only do what you think will give you the best chance to win. making the shutout wager is like taking out insurance—you always win if you get FJ right, but that doesn't make it the best wager, because gee, sometimes you don't get it right. the shutout wager caters to the specific case where you and the trailing player(s) get FJ right; if that happens and you make the shutout bet, you win. but what about if everybody gets it wrong? then the way to guarantee a win is to bet 0 (or less than the difference between 1st and 2nd pre-FJ). this season, there have been 46 triple-gets and 43 triple-negs. the likelihoods of these two events are not particularly different. so why does all wagering strategy for the leader begin and end with the premise of a triple-get?

i'll tell you what i didn't like about blythe's wager: it's not that she didn't make the MSB, but actually that she wagered too much. if you are going to go small, it has to be because you think there's a good chance you'll miss FJ, and that the others might miss it too. obviously if you are nursing a small lead going into FJ, you miss it, and 2nd place hits, well, no wagering brilliance is going to save you. but you can guard against a double-miss.

the scores (i think) were blythe 148, dan 134, and kimberley 82. dan's shutout bet of kimberley is 30, which would take him down to 104 on a miss. so if blythe wants to hedge against a double-miss (really a triple, since kimberley herself is likely to win on a single-get), she shouldn't bet more than 44. her 52 was a bit too high.

so yeah, i'm not actually defending blythe's wager, which was neither here nor there; i'm just saying that the knee-jerk reaction to it was not right either. in most wagering situations, there is more than one rational wager, and really only the player in question is in a position to judge what is likely to give them the best chance to win.
dhkendall wrote:Add to that the added pressure of trying to come up with a wager with a contestant coordinator breathing down your neck wanting you to hurry up and write something, along with the pressure of just playing the game, while never forgetting that your wager depends on the only chance of your points being converted to actual cashmoney, and I'm surprised *any* contestant (save Roger "Iron Nerves" Craig) can make the right wager, even if they have a PhD in quantum mathematics! (I feel I've progressed well enough in my years as a boardie to at least identify a bad wager when it's made, if not be able to suggest the right one, but I know that when I get to Culver City, my newfound wagering knowledge thanks to the board will all go down the drain, just warning y'all ahead of time.)
this is a rather hyperbolic description. unlike with DD wagering, the contestant coordinators go out of their way to let you know that you have as much time as you need to make the FJ wager. the cameras aren't rolling, nobody's staring you down, and while yes, the lights are on, the pressure isn't really that intense unless you take a really, really long time.

also, i'm not on board with the term "the right wager", because there's usually more than one. but i actually think the made-up "quantum mathematics" is hilariously (perhaps unintentionally) apt, for exactly the same reason.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpahk »

stevo4212 wrote:Was there a TOM I didn't see on the Miller-bagpipe question? Any hint that the Miller was Scottish? Was Chaucer Scottish? Is "droning instrument" an obvious jab at bagpipes?
you got it on the third try.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer »

jpahk wrote:
stevo4212 wrote:Was there a TOM I didn't see on the Miller-bagpipe question? Any hint that the Miller was Scottish? Was Chaucer Scottish? Is "droning instrument" an obvious jab at bagpipes?
you got it on the third try.
Exactly. What other instrument has a droning sound?
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

I wonder whether it was out of fear for another triple stumper that Blythe wagered the way she did. And yet, the standard wager would have won on a TS as much as her actual one would have.

I had a small premonition sometime during the reveal that Blythe might not have made the cover bet. I'm sorry I was right.

When Dan hit the Canterbury Tales DD $2,200 in the lead with four clues left, I said, "He should either bet huge or tiny." $2,000 fell in the dangerous middle ground: small enough that he'd lead by less than the amount of money on the board if right, and large enough to make it tough to retain his lead if wrong. Turns out $600 or less would have done the trick. (Of course, had he gone the other way and wagered $4,000 or similar, maybe Blythe would have been less reluctant to cover him, who knows. I can at least feel certain that he loses if he enters FJ under $10,000.)

FJ for me was a quick pick-apart of Hebrew roots, with ab- and bar- flitting through my head. I couldn't settle on one for some reason, then I tried to think of early First Ladies, and Abigail Adams was the first (and only) one I thought of, and I knew I had it, to the point that I didn't bother trying to come up with a second Abigail.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
jpahk wrote:
stevo4212 wrote:Was there a TOM I didn't see on the Miller-bagpipe question? Any hint that the Miller was Scottish? Was Chaucer Scottish? Is "droning instrument" an obvious jab at bagpipes?
you got it on the third try.
Exactly. What other instrument has a droning sound?
Chaucer was probably unaware of the sitar.

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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by dhkendall »

jpahk wrote:so yeah, i'm not actually defending blythe's wager, which was neither here nor there; i'm just saying that the knee-jerk reaction to it was not right either. in most wagering situations, there is more than one rational wager, and really only the player in question is in a position to judge what is likely to give them the best chance to win.
This. (I know, I don't normally like posting just for that, but since I wanted to reply to another part of Joon's post, I figured I'd state my agreement.
jpahk wrote:i actually think the made-up "quantum mathematics" is hilariously (perhaps unintentionally) apt, for exactly the same reason.
I'm a former standup comic, the hilarious was intentional. :) Thank you. :)
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by TenPoundHammer »

dhkendall wrote:I'm a former standup comic, the hilarious was intentional. :) Thank you. :)
I know I have funny in me. Unfortunately, I have two settings: 1.) Not a joke, and b.) Somewhat resembling a joke, but with 100% of the funny replaced with 10 times as much st00pid. It doesn't help that I'm 25 and still giggle at "Uranus" every time.
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Re: Tuesday, July 17, 2012 Game Recap & Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CyrusChan »

Bamaman wrote:Nothing wrong with third place's bet. If second makes the MSB and is wrong, he is till ahead of her if she bets zero. So since she has to be right to win, she might as well go all in and maximize her payday. Second place made a bad bet but it worked out for him since the leader underbet.

Add Canterbury Tales to the short list study guide when you get the call.

Exactly, it's always out, remember to skim through Canterbury Tales and know Chauncer!

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