Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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boson
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by boson » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:45 pm

OntarioQuizzer wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:20 pm
Elijah Baley wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:38 pm
OntarioQuizzer wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:13 pm
I mean, there's the Buzzy Cohen strategy (playing for the win so you don't have to worry about wild cards)...
There's really no way to rationalize Tim's FJ wager. It was extremely risky because a wrong FJ answer essentially eliminates him and a much smaller wager would essentially have guaranteed a spot in the semis. He was either comfortable with that risk or he forgot how the tournament works; I'm guessing it was the former, but let's not try to pretend it was strategic.
Buzzy won the Tournament of Champions, but hey, you do you.
That answer is wrong (and condescending, but whatever). Of course, if you get the final right, then this bet works. The concern is there is a chance of missing it. Both this contestant and Buzzy won because they got the final right. But it is an unnecessary risk for minimal gain.

I think using past successes of people who bet 'big' in Jeopardy and won is survivorship bias: there is always a chance that the big bet works, so looking to the past winners ignores all the people who bet big unnecessarily and missed it. It worked for Buzzy, but he was only 60% in his FJs - get a different question for the quarter final and we'd have a different TOC champ.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by JayK33 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:01 pm

Well, congrats to Tim on having the risk pay off. I agree he should have played it safer but it is what it is, and it paid off for him, so we can't fault him too much.

As for me, I am now 0/5 (so far) for FJs this week.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by OntarioQuizzer » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:12 pm

boson wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:45 pm
he was only 60% in his FJs
You've forgotten that he bet $0 with runaway games three times and punted all three of them. Take those away and he was 85.7%.
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:55 pm

Euphonium wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:49 pm
MarkBarrett wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:26 am
Another outdated clue thanks to the recent A.G. change.
Not really; the fact that there's now an (acting) 85th doesn't change the fact that he's the 84th.
Acting AGs don't appear to count toward the number.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ey_General

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:56 pm

Volante wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:55 pm
Euphonium wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:49 pm
MarkBarrett wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:26 am
Another outdated clue thanks to the recent A.G. change.
Not really; the fact that there's now an (acting) 85th doesn't change the fact that he's the 84th.
Acting AGs don't appear to count toward the number.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ey_General
Acting anything doesn't count.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:13 am

Elijah Baley wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:05 pm
Was Tim unclear on how these tournaments go with respect to his FJ wager - or incredibly supremely confident??
If it were just confidence, why not go all in? The $1-lockout wager clearly suggests he thought he had to win the game in order to advance, which is hard to imagine since I'm pretty certain they advise contestants about the wild-card slots. Since he doesn't get to keep any "extra money" he "won" by betting big, I don't see any advantage to doing so. And of course even in one's strongest categories it's always possible to encounter a clue that stumps you. So he gets whatever bragging rights apply for having the highest score in the QF (assuming the winner of QF-5 doesn't do something similar), nothing material to show for it, and put himself at risk of wagering himself right out of the tournament. Deep sigh.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:18 am

Ironhorse wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:03 pm
I'm not going to fault Tim's wager as winning the game is the one sure way to guarantee moving on. He may have felt social studies was a strength, too. I personally probably would have bet 0, but I'm a naturally conservative wagerer.
Under the circumstances they were in in this game, betting $0 isn't conservative. It's just sound game theory and sound wagering strategy. I would dare anyone to find a tournament in which $17,400 does not advance a non-winner to the second round.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Elijah Baley » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:20 am

Tim's FJ wager aside, another bright group. It's funny to watch them dance around certain clues that seem obvious to us older folks (lucky object over a door, e.g.) but I think that's part of the charm of this tournament - keeping in mind that these kids were all born after 2000. Which really makes me feel old - but also glad to see how bright they are.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by This Is Kirk! » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 am

Opus being the singular form of opera is a datum worth remembering.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:29 pm

59 R
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: Upright Piano, (Montpelier), Horseshoe, Tenor, Narcolepsy, Opus

The Spectacular Now costed me from a perfect game today. :cry:
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm

Good grief, another made up martial art :roll:. Not judging, but seriously - thumbs up (or whatever) is another genre?

I think all three could have advanced but it was a great trap FJ. It was easy to guess Russia for the wrong reason since the Crimean takeover was so long ago in teen years. In Fox News years, it never happened.

Tim's bet is exactly why the military wants to draft 18 year olds :lol: .
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:24 pm

OntarioQuizzer wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:13 pm
I mean, there's the Buzzy Cohen strategy (playing for the win so you don't have to worry about wild cards)...
Playing for the win? You mean when he bet for the tie by not adding the extra dollar in his tournament QF?

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Linear Gnome » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:13 pm

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 am
Opus being the singular form of opera is a datum worth remembering.
I see what you did there.

I think this FJ! gives me a streak of seven correct.

The clue for tenor may have been a little undervalued, but c'mon.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bartleby » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:16 pm

twelvefootboy wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm
Good grief, another made up martial art :roll:. Not judging, but seriously - thumbs up (or whatever) is another genre?
:?:
I would prefer not to.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:43 pm

Bartleby wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:16 pm
twelvefootboy wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm
Good grief, another made up martial art :roll:. Not judging, but seriously - thumbs up (or whatever) is another genre?
:?:
Unless I've mixed up the shows, Rhea's interview was about her black belt in (blank), which differs from (blank, maybe karate?) by how you block attacks (with the muscles, not the bones), and how you hold your thumb for the strike. Or something silly. If a petite little girl faces you down with her thumb up - RUN!

We previously had another black (i think) belt contestant in some Brazilian (?) version which also featured dancing or something a few weeks ago. So beware middle aged ladies that bust a dance move on you!

I'm sure these are real disciplines with genuine athletic components and skilled practitioners. But I resist junk science, quack medicine, and quasi-sports. Not that soccer and baseball weren't the same as quidditch and ultimate frisbee in their day. As long as they don't show up as FJ questions, enjoy...
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:03 pm

Jack is a player I could really cheer for. It's too bad he isn't playing in regular competition where I could hope for him to become a Super Champ. He was also the only one who made a sensible FJ wager tonight.

I have to call hubris on Tim. That was a completely unnecessary risk he took, and it had a high chance of going badly considering he had already bombed two true Daily Doubles in the game.

I would have been fine with all three players betting zero.

And to the person who commented on Jack's hairstyle being outdated. Maybe, just maybe, he will be cast in a reboot of My Three Sons.
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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:42 am

Euphonium wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:49 pm
MarkBarrett wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:26 am
Another outdated clue thanks to the recent A.G. change.
Not really; the fact that there's now an (acting) 85th doesn't change the fact that he's the 84th.
I bought my house from the (now) Maryland Attorney General who has filed the challenge to Whitaker assuming the duties of the AG.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:20 pm

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 am
Opus being the singular form of opera is a datum worth remembering.
This is true pretty much regardless of your criteria. There will be no need for an erratum regarding this post. Nor will there be a correction in any of the appendices or indices.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by AFRET CMS » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:41 pm

opusthepenguin wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:20 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 am
Opus being the singular form of opera is a datum worth remembering.
This is true pretty much regardless of your criteria. There will be no need for an erratum regarding this post. Nor will there be a correction in any of the appendices or indices.
A touching reply that brought a tear to my eye. Now, where are my Kleenices?
I'm not the defending Jeopardy! champion. But I have played one on TV.

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Re: Monday, November 12, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:25 pm

AFRET CMS wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:41 pm
opusthepenguin wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:20 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 am
Opus being the singular form of opera is a datum worth remembering.
This is true pretty much regardless of your criteria. There will be no need for an erratum regarding this post. Nor will there be a correction in any of the appendices or indices.
A touching reply that brought a tear to my eye. Now, where are my Kleenices?
Aw, usually I have people reaching for the Nexia.

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