Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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seaborgium
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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

floridagator wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:01 am
econgator wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 am
jeff6286 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:54 pm
floridagator wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:02 pm
I thought James was terribly bold on his DD. If he'd missed it, he would have been finished right there. No deposit, no refill.
Yeah, a pretty stunning display of hubris. What does he think he is, 57/61 on daily doubles or something? What a rube!
And even if you take out the 16400 he got from that DD, he still would have kept it from being a lock game.
I don't think you understand. Usually when James goes TDD, his opponents are barely in contention (e.g., at 2400 and 1800). And he can easily recover from going to 0 then. But at his TDD tonight, he would not have been able to come back.
I don't think you understand. The TDD was the comeback. If it wasn't going to happen then, it wasn't going to happen.

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jeff6286
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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

floridagator wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:01 am
econgator wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 am
jeff6286 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:54 pm
floridagator wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:02 pm
I thought James was terribly bold on his DD. If he'd missed it, he would have been finished right there. No deposit, no refill.
Yeah, a pretty stunning display of hubris. What does he think he is, 57/61 on daily doubles or something? What a rube!
And even if you take out the 16400 he got from that DD, he still would have kept it from being a lock game.
I don't think you understand. Usually when James goes TDD, his opponents are barely in contention (e.g., at 2400 and 1800). And he can easily recover from going to 0 then. But at his TDD tonight, he would not have been able to come back.
I would say it is pretty clearly you that doesn't understand. James isn't here to "stay alive" or "have a chance in Final Jeopardy". He's here to win. You can pretty clearly see based on the way the game ended, and it was pretty clear at the time. If he missed that DD, he wasn't going to have the lead going to FJ, and with the very gettable FInals as of late that would mean he was going to lose. As it turned out he did well enough on the final clues that a bet of $2000 or so (and a get)would have been enough but he can't know that at the time. He has little to lose by betting it all and everything to gain.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CasketRomance »

twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:18 am
I'll go on record as saying Nate's DD bet was just about right. He was dominating on the buzzer and a nice built up lead from SJ. A potentially hard (it was very hard IMHO) 2K question. If he misses it, he still has a pathway to reach FJ with a lead. 50/50 odds that someone else finds the DD3, and his gameplay was good for additional house edge. James plays for the edge, it just looks like he's a cowboy.

All this hindsight talk about money on the table and what-if's does not describe the real time gameplay optimization. I think two pathways is better than none. It was like watching a Chiefs game to see Nate giving up big chunks of yardage but at least it wasn't because he was resting. Somehow James found his buzzer mojo, and there was a wheelhouse geography category for the picking. Speaking of the buzzer, the CCs must be giving the fresh meat some serious practice help because they are coming out strong. Then, they fade or James' revives.

If the player's roles were reversed at DD2, I don't see James pushing the stack on that one. He might have gone for his cute 9812, but I think he'd keep the lead within $4K on a miss. He doesn't gamble, he manages risk and reward.

I got FJ, and thought it might be a weak category that isn't that easy to study up on. I happen to be a big band era fan - I fled the disco revolution for nursing home music back in the '80's. Andrews Sisters, Glenn Miller, and Bing - bring it on and begin the beguine!

Thank you Nate, for the hope. Another picture to project onto the dome :( .
i agree....he thought he would be able to keep out buzzing him since he had been doing it for the most part through most of the match up to that point...don't fault him too much at all for it

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by yclept »

This was a fascinating game and I am not sure if there is a right or wrong answer when it comes to Nate’s DD wager. One possible thought process: “If I wager $6K and miss, I am going to instantly hunt for the other DD and will have enough money to double up and be in a strong position with no DDs left”

That said, the other side of the argument is also valid. Whether you have seen him play or not, the guy is averaging over $77K+ per game. You HAVE to know he is accumulating money quickly and betting big on DDs. There is no way to get at these insane totals unless you are playing the game this way. Even if Nate is feeling great on the buzzer, he has to have it in the back of his mind that James is likely to get on a roll. He was beating him - he wasn’t destroying him. The tide had high probability to change. This is your one chance to make the tide changing mostly irrelevant.

In the end, this is not normal Jeopardy and I think Naye has to go for broke there. If he was going up against even a typical 5-day champ, sure - $6K is a big wager. James? It feels like a missed opportunity.

Nate played extremely well in the end. It just wasn’t perfect. And you need to either play perfectly or hope James makes a rare mistake to win.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by heppm01 »

twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:18 am
I'll go on record as saying Nate's DD bet was just about right. He was dominating on the buzzer and a nice built up lead from SJ. A potentially hard (it was very hard IMHO) 2K question. If he misses it, he still has a pathway to reach FJ with a lead. 50/50 odds that someone else finds the DD3, and his gameplay was good for additional house edge.
Yes, I agree with you. I imagine Nate was feeling pretty confident that he would be able to handle James for the remainder of the game, given that he already had double his total.

Also, let's not forget that while we here at home have had the advantage of analyzing 25 games by James and thoroughly understand his play technique, Nate had only three games to draw conclusions from, and all taped on one day. Pre-game, I imagine most contestants are more focused on their own gameplay and reviewing material in their head instead of dissecting the play style of the current champ. At best, I think his conclusions would be "I better look for daily doubles" and "I better bet 'big'". Against a normal opponent going all in on the DD would have been a foolish wager and questionable against an above-average player. I don't think Nate had enough information to elevate James to the "one of the best ever" category.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 9:36 am
I don't think Nate had enough information to elevate James to the "one of the best ever" category.
This is where we disagree. I feel that Nate would have had enough information even if he had never seen James play. 25 games won. $1.9+ MILLION!!! (Holy crap!). Nate learned everything he needed to know right there. This man may be the best who ever played the game. He's clearly in the top three. And then Alex does the math so we know that James' total means that his per-game AVERAGE exceeds a one-day RECORD that had stood for years. There is no question whatsoever that it's time to break out the nuclear "what if I end up playing against the next Ken Jennings?" strategy that every player should have spent a few minutes thinking about.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator »

heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 9:36 am
I don't think Nate had enough information to elevate James to the "one of the best ever" category.
I am fairly certain that the reigning champ is introduced to the contenders as an X-day champ who has won $Y.

ETA: Yeah, what Opus said.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse »

Laura and Nate have both posted on Reddit about their experiences. Suffice it to say they were well aware they were facing a kraken.
Never been on J!, but once won a knockoff version that aired on local access TV.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash »

heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 9:36 am
twelvefootboy wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:18 am
I'll go on record as saying Nate's DD bet was just about right. He was dominating on the buzzer and a nice built up lead from SJ. A potentially hard (it was very hard IMHO) 2K question. If he misses it, he still has a pathway to reach FJ with a lead. 50/50 odds that someone else finds the DD3, and his gameplay was good for additional house edge.
Yes, I agree with you. I imagine Nate was feeling pretty confident that he would be able to handle James for the remainder of the game, given that he already had double his total.
Now THAT is the proper definition of hubris.

(Note: I don't know what Nate was thinking. I think it's more likely he just hadn't fully thought through what the right strategy against James was. But IF he thought the way you described here, THEN that would be unjustified overconfidence vis-à-vis a formidable opponent, i.e., hubris.)
Last edited by gnash on Fri May 24, 2019 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 pm

"Pretty Woman" is a film?!
Please stop. Just. Stop.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy »

Ironhorse wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:19 am
I can hear the wagering vikings riding in to castigate Adam for not going all in on DD2, but not doing so on a $2000 Science clue is more than understandable by my book.
I know it's easy to say for us armchair QBs to say. And how it's "understandable" to hold something back, in almost ANY normal J! situation. As long as James is in the game, no "normal" or "understandable" strategy has much chance. I was so proud of Nate for playing an absolute monster of a game that would have won against pretty much anyone else. But yeah, for that one moment he acted like someone who has never seen James play. He left that one tiny opening and James did what James does.

I was so excited to see---finally---a competitive game after five weeks of blowouts. Thanks to both James and Adam for a great one.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by John Boy »

teapot37 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:03 pm
Clingman's Dome is an astounding get. If I hadn't been to the top of it this past weekend I would never have gotten it. (There is parking about a half-mile from the top.)
I also would never have heard of it, save for the one misspent year of my life I lived in Tennessee. Yeah, James knows stuff.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by brick »

John Boy wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 10:43 am
TenPoundHammer wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 pm

"Pretty Woman" is a film?!
Please stop. Just. Stop.
That one’s a headscratcher.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by heppm01 »

opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 10:07 am
heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 9:36 am
I don't think Nate had enough information to elevate James to the "one of the best ever" category.
There is no question whatsoever that it's time to break out the nuclear "what if I end up playing against the next Ken Jennings?" strategy that every player should have spent a few minutes thinking about.
There is a continuum that ranges from confidence to over confidence to hubris. With over half the game played (by clue count, I'm not sure about board value), Nate had double what James did. Nate may have been overconfident but I don't think it was hubris to bet big instead of nuclear. If he goes all-in and misses his game is over. A miss with the bet he made, given his success up to that point, could conceivably be recovered from. I'm not saying he made the best bet, but it is defensible.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 pm
"Pretty Woman" is a film?!
Yeah, just like it was on Christmas Eve when you had never heard of it ...

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator »

Laura said jazz standards wasn't her bailiwick, but her name is one of the greatest jazz standards.
I'd rather cuddle then have sex. If you're into grammar, you'll understand.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash »

heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 11:11 am
opusthepenguin wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 10:07 am
heppm01 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 9:36 am
I don't think Nate had enough information to elevate James to the "one of the best ever" category.
There is no question whatsoever that it's time to break out the nuclear "what if I end up playing against the next Ken Jennings?" strategy that every player should have spent a few minutes thinking about.
There is a continuum that ranges from confidence to over confidence to hubris. With over half the game played (by clue count, I'm not sure about board value), Nate had double what James did. Nate may have been overconfident but I don't think it was hubris to bet big instead of nuclear. If he goes all-in and misses his game is over. A miss with the bet he made, given his success up to that point, could conceivably be recovered from. I'm not saying he made the best bet, but it is defensible.
The sentence I emphasized is the obvious mistake, contradicting everything else in the argument.

There's most of DJ round, including one DD, to go. You cannot at the same time be confident you can keep the lead being plus 12,800 and think it's hopeless being down 6,600.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by squarekara »

floridagator wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 11:41 am
Laura said jazz standards wasn't her bailiwick, but her name is one of the greatest jazz standards.
She's only a dream.

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Woof »

I think you all need to give Nate a break. We here have the advantage of hindsight, both knowing James's history and knowing the outcome of the game. Nate, OTOH, wouldn't have realized what he was up against until he was already atop the podium (unless, of course, he'd seen an earlier game, in which case ignore everything I just said). To expect him to instantly arrive at an optimal strategy for what anyone would have to consider a 1-in-a-million chance (facing a superchamp mid-run) is a bit much IMO. At least he didn't have the typical deer in the headlights reaction. Anyway, fun game to watch. How long has it been since James last was in a non-lock game?

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Re: Thursday, May 23, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by opusthepenguin »

I think we all feel for Nate. I know I do. And I think most of us understand that, even knowing that a true DD2 was the smart move there, it's really really hard to pull that trigger. I don't know that I would pull that trigger. I only know that it's the right thing to do. And it helps to reinforce that knowledge by writing it down. If I'm ever in Nate's position, I want to know that I'm on record stating what the right strategy is. Hopefully that will goad me into pursuing it.

I reject the notion that Nate didn't have enough information to know the right strategy. I agree he might not have thought about this scenario sufficiently to make use of that information. Or he may have known the right strategy but just found himself unable to pursue it. I can sympathize. But I didn't want to be here on Friday morning sympathizing with Nate. I wanted to be congratulating him. And I know he would have preferred that as well.

Here's a question I can't easily answer. How often have we had this discussion? How often have we been here at the post-game water cooler talking about a contestant up against a buzz saw, saying, "if only so-and-so had understood what (s)he was up against and bet more on that DD. (S)he'd be the champ now. (Or, at least, (s)he would have prevented a runaway and had a shot going into FJ.)"? This conversation seems very familiar. We've had it before. More than once.

How many times have we had the opposite conversation (again, specifically when talking about a contestant up against a buzz saw)? "If only so-and-so had been more cautious on those DDs. (S)he'd have won." Once that I recall. Roger Craig up against Brad and Ken. (Edit: Oh, an in the recent All-Star games there may have been a similar moment with Alex Jacob. But if I recall, even if he'd exercised "caution" it probably wouldn't have made a difference? In any event, maybe the strategy is different when it's superchamp vs superchamp. That would be interesting to know but it doesn't address any scenarios that I PERSONALLY might face.)

If any of you boardies get on the show and find yourself up against a superchamp, remember this.

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