Thursday, November 17, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Re: Thursday, November 17, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

opusthepenguin wrote: Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:28 pm Welp, Sam's now been robbed of one game and thrown another away. He's learned to hunt the DD but not to bet the FJ. He could and should be in the lead right now, the only player with 2 games won. I'm really depressed. Mrs. P reminded me of one Final Wager video where Keith Williams appears unshaven and disheveled, taking a swig from a vodka bottle before analyzing the FJ bets. She pictures him after this game tying off an arm with surgical tubing so he can stick a needle in before giving us his analysis.

I assume you all are in Friday's thread right now, discussing Andrew's or Amy's win. Sigh. I'll find out tomorrow.
This "analsysis" feels insanely shortsighted. You're missing the part where if this happened to be an easy FJ Sam wins because he bet big, countering Amy's smaller wager. My biggest assumption for why Amy chose a non-cover bet is that she's recognized the FJ clues have been very tough all week (or all TOC), and well this one stumped the 3 finalists so her instinct proved correct. Now if Sam also recognizes these clues have been tough and Amy might try a sneaky/small wager, it's reasonably for him to bet big since he could win on a get. I don't know if that was his reason or if he just figured I'm down 2-to-1-to-0, YOLO. But the fact is with the bets made, Amy wins on a triple miss and Sam wins on a triple get. This is the reverse of what you normally expect with those scores but I don't necessarily think either of their wagers was "throwing the game away".
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Re: Thursday, November 17, 2022 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by BobF »

Category 13 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:19 pm
cf1140 wrote: Those are good wagers. Amy had to think Sam wouldn't let Andrew into the game so she wagered to cover Sam's 6399 wager, yet stay above his 5001 wager if they were both wrong. Sam, thinking Amy might short the wager (which she did) just went all in which was a good move.
Amy had nothing to gain by wagering over 4999, if she was going to risk not covering Sam's double up. She only made herself vulnerable to Sam wagering zero, which he has done twice in this final series already.

Agree it wasn't out of line for Sam to wager big though, and boy, did he expose Amy for her tendency to not always make the recommended wager.
I hope Andrew was paying attention.
So, in a normal game, those wagers would definitely suck, but in a game where you know your opponents' tendencies from playing them a few times, it was sound strategy. Is that what you're saying here? Or did I make a bad assumptions?
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