Final day FJ wagering suggestions

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Vermonter
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Vermonter »

Just came across this thread, and panicked that I had overwagered! (Better that than too little, right?) But I'm pretty sure my 11,801 was the minimum.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

I added up Grant's numbers wrong, managing to sum $15,200 and $20,200 to $35,200. Hence, my suggestion for you was $200 off. To my chagrin, that's not the first time a math error in this thread has made a boardie's wager seem wrong.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Vermonter »

That's ok, this thread is a huge service! Thanks for putting it together.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy »

I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:

"Lead-Split" is my term to describe a two-day match where one player has the cumulative lead (i.e. would win if both bet zero) but another has the maximum possible total (i.e. would be able to cover and guarantee a win with a correct response). The Battle of the Decades final is a perfect example (Brad Rutter had the cumulative lead and was right to bet zero, but Ken Jennings could achieve the higher total and was right to bet to cover). Other examples I can think of right away were the 2008 College final (Danielle Zsenak had the higher CT, Joey Beachum the higher MPT) and the 2003 ToC final (Mark Dawson had the higher CT, Brian Weikle the higher MPT). The last Teen final was right on the breakpoint (both Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie had the same MPT, but the former had the higher CT), and the 1993 ToC had a CT-tie. I can't think of any examples right away of real-life lead splits between 2nd and 3rd (Added in separate from the email text: I did create one in a "wagering puzzle" from a few months ago). Another interesting point is that in a lead-split game the cover bet from the maximum possible total leader will take him/her below the cumulative leader's first-day total, giving the coverer no chance of winning if wrong (but since the cumulative leader can bet zero making it impossible for the MPT leader to win without being right there is probably no feasible alternative to the cover bet).
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by dhkendall »

GoodStrategy wrote:I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:
Problem with coining a term is that if it doesn't catch on, it'd be out of place in a lexionary like the J! Archive glossary. I hope it catches on since it's obviously a situation that hasn't had a term yet, but we'll see.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

I like to refer to the advantage in those situations as the "lead from behind," or else I simply call it "the advantage" (which is the term I prefer to use instead of "the lead" in two-day situations, since the lead doesn't always have the advantage).

I think the term "lead-split" makes it sound merely like a different person is leading the second day, when it's more complex than that (if player A leads player B by x at the end of day 1, B must lead A by more than x/2 and less than x entering the second day's FJ to have the advantage without the lead).
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Robert K S »

As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy »

Robert K S wrote:As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.
In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Robert K S »

GoodStrategy wrote:In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.
I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy »

Robert K S wrote:
GoodStrategy wrote:In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.
I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.
I meant pre-second-day-FJ! (sorry for the misphrasing).
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by GoodStrategy »

I think you might have the minimum guarantees for the 1987 Teen and Seniors Tournaments wrong - in the video for the latter I recall Alex telling Irene that she'd get $5,000 (and not $7,500) anyway. Therefore it appears that the $7,500/$10,000 guarantees were first implemented in the ToC that fall, and in the aforementioned two tournaments they simply continued to apply the precedent set from the 1986 ToC where runners-up in the finals who finished with less than $5,000 got the money they would've had if they had been eliminated in the semifinals (but no more). (I've also suggested this as a correction to the J! Archive.)
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Re: College Championship final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

This seems as good a place as any to post these various "third place" observations with regard to multi-day wagering.

Finals where the player who finished the penultimate game in third ended up winning:

1987 ToC:
Bob Verini: $3,800 + $11,000 + $1,201 = $16,001
Dave Traini: $7,600 + $4,200 + $4,200 = $16,000
Eugene Finerman: $6,800 + $2,400 + $2,400 = $11,600

1988 ToC:
Mark Lowenthal: $5,000 + $10,900 + $8,101 = $24,001
Bruce Naegeli: $12,800 + $5,600 + $399 = $18,799
Sandra Gore: $13,000 + $5,000 - $5,000 = $13,000

1992 College Championship:
Billy Baxter: $9,800 + $8,300 + $8,100 = $26,200
Stephanie Leveene: $11,900 + $9,900 - $5,000 = $16,800
Nick Jungman: $10,000 + $3,400 + $3,400 = $16,800

1995 College Championship:
Ben Lyon: $5,500 + $9,500 + $2,000 = $17,000
Rebekah Reeves: $6,000 + $5,500 + $2,300 = $13,800
Steve Smith: $8,000 + $2,200 + $2,000 = $12,200

1999 ToC:
Dave Abbott: $7,100 + $7,200 + $7,200 = $21,500
J.J. Todor: $9,000 + $5,800 + $5,800 = $20,600
Juliet Wiley: $7,400 + $4,100 - $4,000 = $7,500

2006 Teen Tournament:
Papa Chakravarthy: $4,000 + $23,000 + $1,601 = $28,601
Andrew Kreitz: $6,500 + $4,600 + $4,599 + $15,699
Matt Klein: $11,800 + $8,400 - $8,400 = $11,800

2007-B Teen Tournament (Teen Tournament Summer Games):
Meryl Federman: $0 + $22,000 + $16,601 = $38,601
Greg Peterson: $25,000 + $6,800 + $6,800 = $38,600
Kyle Neblett: $18,000 + $9,200 + $9,200 = $36,400

2013 Teen Tournament:
Leonard Cooper: $3,000 + $37,000 - $0 = $40,000
Barrett Block: $17,600 + $9,000 + $9,000 = $35,600
Nilai Sarda: $19,000 + $14,400 - $7,000 = $26,400

2013 College Championship:
Jim Coury: $8,600 + $14,200 + $11,789 = $34,589
Trevor Walker: $11,000 + $8,200 - $3,601 = $15,599
Kristen Jolley: $10,000 + $8,600 - $4,199 = $14,401

2017 ToC:
Buzzy Cohen: $0 + $25,600 - $1,301 = $24,299
Alan Lin: $8,800 + $1,600 - $1,200 = $9,200
Austin Rogers: $6,500 + $10,200 - $10,000 = $6,700

That's ten out of over a hundred multi-day tournament finals (with or without the UToC semis and the Watson match), and I wouldn't call most of them a "distant third."


Six people have won a multi-day situation in the latter FJ from third place (which is to say having the lowest maximum possible score of the competitors; they didn't all have the lowest cumulative score entering FJ):

Frank Spangenberg, 10th Anniversary Tournament (needed sole get and overwager by Tom Nosek, got both)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament (could win in a triple stumper, got one, overwagered by $1,600, but second place overwagered by more)
John Zhang in the 2003 Teen Tournament (in a third that normally only has a chance for second, but first place bet $20,000 when he need only have bet $200, and John maxed out his score on a sole get)
Jerome Vered in the UToC semifinals (had a strong enough first game that he just needed his competitors to miss FJ at the end of game 2 regardless of how he did or what he wagered; he had a sole get and a $0 wager)
Raynell Cooper in the 2011 Teen Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered everything and took the TS win off the table; he and second place got FJ right, but second didn't wager to cover)
Patrick Quinn in the 2012-A Teachers' Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered almost everything and took the TS win off the table; had a sole get)


Victories in the final day from people in third place for that day only:
Zeke Sevilla, Jr., 1987 Seniors Tournament (actually in first)
Jim Scott, 1991 ToC (actually in second)
Leonard Schmidt, 1992 Seniors Tournament (actually in second)
Tom Nosek, 1993 ToC (actually in second)
Sahir Islam, 1997-A Teen Tournament (actually in second)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament
John Zhang, 2003 Teen Tournament
Jerome Vered, UToC semifinals
Vijay Balse, 2010 ToC (actually in second)
Raynell Cooper, 2011 Teen Tournament
Patrick Quinn, 2012-A Teachers' Tournament
Ben Ingram, 2014 ToC (actually in first)

[edited 11/19/18 to add 2017 ToC results]
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

I feel this thread can be bumped after almost four years, and I just don't feel like putting the GOAT games in the catch-all post.

Greatest of All Time, 2020:

Day 1:

Code: Select all

James: 33200 15000 48200 63200
Ken:   45000 12200 57200 69400
Brad:  10400 10000 20400 30400
Ken: Bet 6,001 to cover James.
James: You have Brad superlocked and you must get FJ right to win. Bet everything, or at least 3,000.
Brad: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Ken bet 6,200, and James and Brad bet everything. Ken and James got it right, and Ken won.

Day 2:

Code: Select all

James: 44314 22800 67114 89914
Ken:   40000 21200 61200 82400
Brad:  14400     0 14400 14400
James: Bet 15,287 to cover Ken.
Ken: You can win if James misses. Bet less than 9,373.
Brad: (cannot wager)

Actual results: James bet 15,300, and Ken bet 3,800. Only James got it right, and he won.

Day 3:

Code: Select all

James: 27200  7400 34600 42000
Ken:   51200 17600 68800 86400
Brad:  17600 10000 27600 37600
Ken: You have a superlock over James and Brad. Bet what you want.
James: Bet 3,001 to cover Brad.
Brad: You can overtake James if you're right and he's wrong. Bet it all (or at least 4,000).

*Because there is no functional difference between second and third place in these games, I only include wagering suggestions for James and Brad as a formality.

Actual results: Ken bet 1,200, James bet 908, and Brad bet 4,133. No one got FJ right (only Ken tried), and Ken won.

Day 4:

Code: Select all

James: 34181 44000 78181 122181
Ken:   65600 23000 88600 111600
Brad:      0  1400  1400   2800
James: Bet 33,420 to cover Ken.
Ken: James will fall behind your day 1 total if he covers you and misses. Bet what you want (but maybe less than 10,419 to stay above James's current cumulative total).
Brad: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: James bet everything, and Ken and Brad wagered 0. Only Ken got it right, and he won.
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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

I feel like my catch-all post is catching plenty at this point, so Second Chance finals wagering suggestions get a new post: this one!

2022 Second Chance week 1 (October 21-25)

Code: Select all

James:   30929  2000 32929 34929
Jessica: 28600 15300 43900 59200
Molly:   15600 10600 26200 36800
James: You can't catch Jessica, and Molly can't clear your day 1 score if she is wrong. Bet what you want.
Molly: You can't catch Jessica, but you can take second place. Bet $8,130 to cover James.
Jessica: Bet less than $7,100, and enjoy your victory.

Actual results: James and Molly bet it all, and Jessica bet $10,000. Everyone missed FJ, and Jessica won.

2022 Second Chance week 2 (October 28-November 1)

Code: Select all

Rowan: 30000 20000 50000 70000
Jack:   3400 29400 32800 62200
Sadie:  4800  5000  9800 14800
Rowan: Bet $12,201 to cover Jack.
Jack: You can win if you're right and Rowan is wrong. Bet from $5,000 to $17,999 (to prevent falling behind Sadie).
Sadie: Rowan has you superlocked, and Jack can attempt to win without risking his lock over you. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Rowan bet $12,201, Jack bet it all, and Sadie bet it all. No one got it right, and Rowan won.

2023 Second Chance week 1, Season 37-38 players (September 11-15)

Code: Select all

David: 6728 14800 21528 36328
Jill: 19600  7800 27400 35200
Hari:  1600 19200 20800 40000

Hari: Bet $15,529 to cover David.
David: Bet $13,673 to cover Jill.
Jill: Hari's and David's cover wagers will drop them behind your day 1 score if they miss. Bet whatever you want (perhaps less than $5,872 to make sure you stay ahead in the unlikely event David and Hari bet nothing).

Actual results: Hari bet $16,000, David bet everything, and Jill bet nothing. Hari and David got it right, and Hari won.

2023 Second Chance week 2, Season 37-38 players (September 18-22)

Code: Select all

Deanna: 16200 12400 28600 41000
Rob:     3400 11400 14800 26200
Pam:    10000  9200 19200 28400
Deanna: Bet $199 or less, and enjoy your victory.
Pam: Bet $7,001 to cover Rob.
Rob: Bet $2,600 or less to stay ahead of Pam if you both miss.

Actual results: Deanna bet $0, Pam bet $7,001, and Rob bet $2,000. Only Deanna missed, and she won thanks to her lock.

2023 Second Chance week 3, Season 37-38 players (September 25-29)

Code: Select all

Michalle: 21400 11000 32400 43400
Jilana:   29200 16400 45600 62000
Barb:      6400  7600 14000 21600
Jilana: You have a lock. Bet less than $2,200, and enjoy your victory.
Michalle: Jilana has a lock over you, and you have a lock over Barb. Bet less than $10,800 to hold on to second place.
Barb: You are locked into third place. Bet what you want, but maybe more than $7,400 to clear Michalle's day 1 score.

Actual results: Jilana bet $2,201, Michalle bet $10,700, and Barb bet $0. Everyone missed FJ, and Jilana won despite a slight Clavin bet.

2023-2024 Second Chance week 1, season 39 players (December 19-25)

Code: Select all

Juveria: 51200 19600 70800 90400
Jason:   16200 15800 32000 47800
Iris:     2400  7000  9400 16400
Juveria: Nobody else can clear your day 1 total. Bet whatever you want, and congratulations.
Jason: Juveria has you superlocked, and you have a lock over Iris. Bet anything less than $15,600.
Iris: Juveria has you superlocked and Jason has you locked. Bet everything, just in case Jason does too.

Actual results: Juveria bet nothing, Jason bet $10,000, and Iris bet $5,000. Only Jason got it right, and Juveria won.

2023-2024 Second Chance week 2, season 39 players (December 26-January 1)

Code: Select all

Greg:        35200 10600 45800 56400
Xanni:       29600 13800 43400 57200
Christopher: 16000  8600 24600 33200
Xanni: Bet $13,001 to cover Greg.
Greg: Christopher can't catch you, and Xanni will fall behind your day 1 score if she covers you and misses. Bet whatever you want (if you don't bet everything, maybe keep it under $2,400 so Xanni has to get FJ right to beat you regardless of her wager).
Christopher: You can't win because Greg's day 1 score is higher than you can reach, but you can take second place if Xanni misses. Bet more than $8,200.

Actual results: Xanni and Christopher bet everything, and Greg bet nothing. Xanni and Greg got it right, and Xanni won.

2023-2024 Second Chance week 3, season 39 players (January 2-8)

Code: Select all

Matt:   10000 18800 28800 47600
Michael: 6600 29200 35800 65000
Randall:    0  3000  3000  6000
Michael: Bet $11,801 to cover Matt.
Matt: Bet less than $4,800 to stay ahead of Matt if he covers you and you both miss.
Randall: You are superlocked into third place. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Michael bet $12,000, and Matt and Randall bet everything. Only Matt got it right, and he won.

2023-2024 Second Chance week 4, season 39 players (January 9-15)

Code: Select all

Roy:      0  7600  7600 15200
Long: 36800 19600 56400 76000
Rotimi:   0  1000  1000  2000
Long: You have a superlock. Bet what you want, and congratulations.
Roy: You have a lock on second. Bet less than $5,600.
Rotimi: You're locked into third place. Bet what you want (perhaps leaving a little bit behind in case Roy drops to $0).

Actual results: Long bet $123, Roy bet $350, and Rotimi bet nothing. Nobody got it right, and Long won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The Masters

Post by seaborgium »

The Masters 2023
Spoiler

Code: Select all

James:  34314  9600 43914 53514
Matt:   12000  3200 15200 18400
Mattea: 24800 22800 47600 70400
Mattea: Bet 5,915 to cover James.
James: You can win if Mattea misses, regardless of whether you get it. Bet less than 2,229.
Matt: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Matt bet 0, James bet 119, and Mattea bet 5,915. Everyone missed FJ, and James won.
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Champions Wild Card

Post by seaborgium »

2023 Champions Wild Card, Spades

Code: Select all

Sam:  15200  5000 20200 25200
Josh: 25200 22000 47200 69200
Lucy: 14200 11600 25800 37400
Josh: Bet less than $9,800 and enjoy your victory.
Lucy: Bet less than $600 and enjoy second place.
Sam: The best you can do is tie Josh's game 1 score. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Josh bet $0, Lucy bet $5,500, and Sam bet $0. Only Lucy got it right (Josh shouted out his daughter and Sam made a joke), and Josh won.

2023 Champions Wild Card, Diamonds

Code: Select all

Emily: 30400 16200 46600 62800
Jilana: 3000 24000 27000 51000
Aaron: 10000     0 10000 10000
Emily: Wager $4,401 to cover Jilana.
Jilana: You must get FJ right to win, but you can wager to win while keeping your total ahead of Aaron if you miss. Bet between $15,200 and $17,000.
Aaron: [cannot wager]

Actual results: Emily wagered $4,401, and Jilana wagered everything. Both missed FJ, and Emily won.

2023 Champions Wild Card, Clubs

Code: Select all

Jen:    5600  3800  9400 13200
Dennis: 3000 16400 19400 35800
Nick:   9300 14600 23900 38500
Nick: Bet $11,901 to cover Dennis.
Dennis: Nick will fall behind your current total if he covers you and misses. Bet $0, or anything else less than $6,200 to keep Jen locked out.
Jen: You can win on a sole get if Nick makes the cover wager and Dennis bets too much. Bet everything.

Actual results: Nick bet everything, Dennis bet $11,500, and Jen bet everything. Nick and Jen got it right, and Nick won.

2023 Champions Wild Card, Hearts

Code: Select all

Yungsheng: 8000 33800 41800 75600
Tyler:    17600 11400 29000 40400
Gary:      6000 14800 20800 35600
Yungsheng: Bet less than $1,400, and enjoy your victory.
Tyler: Bet $6,601 to cover Gary.
Gary: You have to get it right to beat Tyler if he covers you and misses, so bet at least $1,601. (Perhaps keep your bet under $3,200 to stay ahead of his day 1 score in case he drops to $0 today.)

Actual results: Yungsheng bet $0, Tyler bet everything, and Gary bet $8,300. Only Yungsheng got FJ right, and he won.

Early 2024 Champions Wild Card 1 (January 16-February 2)

Code: Select all

Juveria: 20000 11800 31800 43600
Andy:    14800  4400 19200 23600
Michael:     0 13200 13200 26400
Juveria: You have a lock. Bet less than $5,400, and enjoy your victory.
Michael: Bet $10,401 to cover Andy.
Andy: Michael has the advantage over you, but his cumulative total is behind yours and you'll take second if he misses no matter what. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Juveria bet $0, Michael bet $10,401, and Andy bet everything. No one got it right, and Juveria won.

Early 2024 Champions Wild Card 2 (February 3-22)
Spoiler

Code: Select all

Deb:  21600 10300 31900 42200
Jesse: 2800 20400 23200 43600
Mira:  2800  5600  8400 14000
Jesse: Bet $19,001 to cover Deb.
Deb: Jesse is behind your cumulative total and will fall behind your day 1 score if he covers you and misses. Bet what you want, perhaps less than $8,700 to force him to be right to win.
Mira: You can't reach Deb's day 1 score, but you could take second place by staying above where Jesse will fall on a cover wager and miss. Bet less than $4,200.

Actual results: Jesse bet $19,800, and Deb and Mira bet everything. No one got it right, and Deb won.
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