Final day FJ wagering suggestions

[Vermonter]

Just came across this thread, and panicked that I had overwagered! (Better that than too little, right?) But I'm pretty sure my 11,801 was the minimum.

[seaborgium]

I added up Grant's numbers wrong, managing to sum $15,200 and $20,200 to $35,200. Hence, my suggestion for you was $200 off. To my chagrin, that's not the first time a math error in this thread has made a boardie's wager seem wrong.

[Vermonter]

That's ok, this thread is a huge service! Thanks for putting it together.

[GoodStrategy]

I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:

"Lead-Split" is my term to describe a two-day match where one player has the cumulative lead (i.e. would win if both bet zero) but another has the maximum possible total (i.e. would be able to cover and guarantee a win with a correct response). The Battle of the Decades final is a perfect example (Brad Rutter had the cumulative lead and was right to bet zero, but Ken Jennings could achieve the higher total and was right to bet to cover). Other examples I can think of right away were the 2008 College final (Danielle Zsenak had the higher CT, Joey Beachum the higher MPT) and the 2003 ToC final (Mark Dawson had the higher CT, Brian Weikle the higher MPT). The last Teen final was right on the breakpoint (both Alan Koolik and Jeff Xie had the same MPT, but the former had the higher CT), and the 1993 ToC had a CT-tie. I can't think of any examples right away of real-life lead splits between 2nd and 3rd (Added in separate from the email text: I did create one in a "wagering puzzle" from a few months ago). Another interesting point is that in a lead-split game the cover bet from the maximum possible total leader will take him/her below the cumulative leader's first-day total, giving the coverer no chance of winning if wrong (but since the cumulative leader can bet zero making it impossible for the MPT leader to win without being right there is probably no feasible alternative to the cover bet).

[dhkendall]

I thought I'd post about a term I coined to apply to multi-day wagering ("Lead-Split") when I sent an email reply to Robert KS. Here is a copy-and-paste of what I wrote:

Problem with coining a term is that if it doesn't catch on, it'd be out of place in a lexionary like the J! Archive glossary. I hope it catches on since it's obviously a situation that hasn't had a term yet, but we'll see.

[seaborgium]

I like to refer to the advantage in those situations as the "lead from behind," or else I simply call it "the advantage" (which is the term I prefer to use instead of "the lead" in two-day situations, since the lead doesn't always have the advantage).

I think the term "lead-split" makes it sound merely like a different person is leading the second day, when it's more complex than that (if player A leads player B by x at the end of day 1, B must lead A by more than x/2 and less than x entering the second day's FJ to have the advantage without the lead).

[Robert K S]

As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.

[GoodStrategy]

As well, a player can have the advantage without leading either day.

In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.

[Robert K S]

In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.

I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.

[GoodStrategy]

In such a case different opponents will always have the individual game's lead. In other words, it's not possible for A to win the tournament if B led both days, but if B led one day and C the other it is.

I think I get what you mean, but I'm not sure if the way you said it is technically right. Taking "leading" to mean post-FJ the first day and pre-FJ the second day, it's still possible for A to win if B led both days. It's just not possible for A to do so if B has bet to cover and gets Final right.

I meant pre-second-day-FJ! (sorry for the misphrasing).

[GoodStrategy]

I think you might have the minimum guarantees for the 1987 Teen and Seniors Tournaments wrong - in the video for the latter I recall Alex telling Irene that she'd get $5,000 (and not $7,500) anyway. Therefore it appears that the $7,500/$10,000 guarantees were first implemented in the ToC that fall, and in the aforementioned two tournaments they simply continued to apply the precedent set from the 1986 ToC where runners-up in the finals who finished with less than $5,000 got the money they would've had if they had been eliminated in the semifinals (but no more). (I've also suggested this as a correction to the J! Archive.)

[seaborgium]

This seems as good a place as any to post these various "third place" observations with regard to multi-day wagering.

Finals where the player who finished the penultimate game in third ended up winning:

1987 ToC:
Bob Verini: $3,800 + $11,000 + $1,201 = $16,001
Dave Traini: $7,600 + $4,200 + $4,200 = $16,000
Eugene Finerman: $6,800 + $2,400 + $2,400 = $11,600

1988 ToC:
Mark Lowenthal: $5,000 + $10,900 + $8,101 = $24,001
Bruce Naegeli: $12,800 + $5,600 + $399 = $18,799
Sandra Gore: $13,000 + $5,000 - $5,000 = $13,000

1992 College Championship:
Billy Baxter: $9,800 + $8,300 + $8,100 = $26,200
Stephanie Leveene: $11,900 + $9,900 - $5,000 = $16,800
Nick Jungman: $10,000 + $3,400 + $3,400 = $16,800

1995 College Championship:
Ben Lyon: $5,500 + $9,500 + $2,000 = $17,000
Rebekah Reeves: $6,000 + $5,500 + $2,300 = $13,800
Steve Smith: $8,000 + $2,200 + $2,000 = $12,200

1999 ToC:
Dave Abbott: $7,100 + $7,200 + $7,200 = $21,500
J.J. Todor: $9,000 + $5,800 + $5,800 = $20,600
Juliet Wiley: $7,400 + $4,100 - $4,000 = $7,500

2006 Teen Tournament:
Papa Chakravarthy: $4,000 + $23,000 + $1,601 = $28,601
Andrew Kreitz: $6,500 + $4,600 + $4,599 + $15,699
Matt Klein: $11,800 + $8,400 - $8,400 = $11,800

2007-B Teen Tournament (Teen Tournament Summer Games):
Meryl Federman: $0 + $22,000 + $16,601 = $38,601
Greg Peterson: $25,000 + $6,800 + $6,800 = $38,600
Kyle Neblett: $18,000 + $9,200 + $9,200 = $36,400

2013 Teen Tournament:
Leonard Cooper: $3,000 + $37,000 - $0 = $40,000
Barrett Block: $17,600 + $9,000 + $9,000 = $35,600
Nilai Sarda: $19,000 + $14,400 - $7,000 = $26,400

2013 College Championship:
Jim Coury: $8,600 + $14,200 + $11,789 = $34,589
Trevor Walker: $11,000 + $8,200 - $3,601 = $15,599
Kristen Jolley: $10,000 + $8,600 - $4,199 = $14,401

2017 ToC:
Buzzy Cohen: $0 + $25,600 - $1,301 = $24,299
Alan Lin: $8,800 + $1,600 - $1,200 = $9,200
Austin Rogers: $6,500 + $10,200 - $10,000 = $6,700

That's ten out of over a hundred multi-day tournament finals (with or without the UToC semis and the Watson match), and I wouldn't call most of them a "distant third."


Six people have won a multi-day situation in the latter FJ from third place (which is to say having the lowest maximum possible score of the competitors; they didn't all have the lowest cumulative score entering FJ):

Frank Spangenberg, 10th Anniversary Tournament (needed sole get and overwager by Tom Nosek, got both)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament (could win in a triple stumper, got one, overwagered by $1,600, but second place overwagered by more)
John Zhang in the 2003 Teen Tournament (in a third that normally only has a chance for second, but first place bet $20,000 when he need only have bet $200, and John maxed out his score on a sole get)
Jerome Vered in the UToC semifinals (had a strong enough first game that he just needed his competitors to miss FJ at the end of game 2 regardless of how he did or what he wagered; he had a sole get and a $0 wager)
Raynell Cooper in the 2011 Teen Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered everything and took the TS win off the table; he and second place got FJ right, but second didn't wager to cover)
Patrick Quinn in the 2012-A Teachers' Tournament (could win on a sole get or a triple stumper, wagered almost everything and took the TS win off the table; had a sole get)


Victories in the final day from people in third place for that day only:
Zeke Sevilla, Jr., 1987 Seniors Tournament (actually in first)
Jim Scott, 1991 ToC (actually in second)
Leonard Schmidt, 1992 Seniors Tournament (actually in second)
Tom Nosek, 1993 ToC (actually in second)
Sahir Islam, 1997-A Teen Tournament (actually in second)
Bernard Holloway, 2002 Teen Tournament
John Zhang, 2003 Teen Tournament
Jerome Vered, UToC semifinals
Vijay Balse, 2010 ToC (actually in second)
Raynell Cooper, 2011 Teen Tournament
Patrick Quinn, 2012-A Teachers' Tournament
Ben Ingram, 2014 ToC (actually in first)

[edited 11/19/18 to add 2017 ToC results]

[seaborgium]

I feel this thread can be bumped after almost four years, and I just don't feel like putting the GOAT games in the catch-all post.

Greatest of All Time, 2020:

Day 1:

Code: Select all

James: 33200 15000 48200 63200
Ken:   45000 12200 57200 69400
Brad:  10400 10000 20400 30400

Ken: Bet 6,001 to cover James.
James: You have Brad superlocked and you must get FJ right to win. Bet everything, or at least 3,000.
Brad: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Ken bet 6,200, and James and Brad bet everything. Ken and James got it right, and Ken won.

Day 2:

Code: Select all

James: 44314 22800 67114 89914
Ken:   40000 21200 61200 82400
Brad:  14400     0 14400 14400

James: Bet 15,287 to cover Ken.
Ken: You can win if James misses. Bet less than 9,373.
Brad: (cannot wager)

Actual results: James bet 15,300, and Ken bet 3,800. Only James got it right, and he won.

Day 3:

Code: Select all

James: 27200  7400 34600 42000
Ken:   51200 17600 68800 86400
Brad:  17600 10000 27600 37600

Ken: You have a superlock over James and Brad. Bet what you want.
James: Bet 3,001 to cover Brad.
Brad: You can overtake James if you're right and he's wrong. Bet it all (or at least 4,000).

*Because there is no functional difference between second and third place in these games, I only include wagering suggestions for James and Brad as a formality.

Actual results: Ken bet 1,200, James bet 908, and Brad bet 4,133. No one got FJ right (only Ken tried), and Ken won.

Day 4:

Code: Select all

James: 34181 44000 78181 122181
Ken:   65600 23000 88600 111600
Brad:      0  1400  1400   2800

James: Bet 33,420 to cover Ken.
Ken: James will fall behind your day 1 total if he covers you and misses. Bet what you want (but maybe less than 10,419 to stay above James's current cumulative total).
Brad: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: James bet everything, and Ken and Brad wagered 0. Only Ken got it right, and he won.

[seaborgium]

I feel like my catch-all post is catching plenty at this point, so Second Chance finals wagering suggestions get a new post: this one!

2022 Second Chance week 1 (October 21)

Spoiler

Code: Select all

James:   30929  2000 32929 34929
Jessica: 28600 15300 43900 59200
Molly:   15600 10600 26200 36800

James: You can't catch Jessica, and Molly can't clear your day 1 score if she is wrong. Bet what you want.
Molly: You can't catch Jessica, but you can take second place. Bet $8,130 to cover James.
Jessica: Bet less than $7,100, and enjoy your victory.

Actual results: James and Molly bet it all, and Jessica bet $10,000. Everyone missed FJ, and Jessica won.

2022 Second Chance week 2 (October 28)

Spoiler

Code: Select all

Rowan: 30000 20000 50000 70000
Jack:   3400 29400 32800 62200
Sadie:  4800  5000  9800 14800

Rowan: Bet $12,201 to cover Jack.
Jack: You can win if you're right and Rowan is wrong. Bet from $5,000 to $17,999 (to prevent falling behind Sadie).
Sadie: Rowan has you superlocked, and Jack can attempt to win without risking his lock over you. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Rowan bet $12,201, Jack bet it all, and Sadie bet it all. No one got it right, and Rowan won.

[seaborgium]

The Masters 2023

Spoiler

Code: Select all

James:  34314  9600 43914 53514
Matt:   12000  3200 15200 18400
Mattea: 24800 22800 47600 70400

Mattea: Bet 5,915 to cover James.
James: You can win if Mattea misses, regardless of whether you get it. Bet less than 2,229.
Matt: You are superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Matt bet 0, James bet 119, and Mattea bet 5,915. Everyone missed FJ, and James won.