floridagator wrote: Whyever did he bet EVERYTHING on FJ? If he had covered MAXIMUM BETS by his challengers, he would be a champion again today. In addition to that egregious mistake, he had to be prompted to phrase in the form of a question TWICE in the J! round.
Not necessarily so, not that any explanation forgives the wagering we saw. Jonathan had to bet $12,301 to cover an all-in bet by Colby. So if he misses, he drops "only" to $5,799.
Colby, meanwhile has to realize he can't beat the leader if the leader answers correctly and wagers properly. If 3rd place is not a factor, Colby's best bet is anything up to $9,400. If he also misses, he drops to $5,800 and beats Jonathan by a buck.
But since Jennifer IS a factor, Colby has to bet $6,401 to cover a doubling wager from 3rd place. But if he bets that and misses, he drops to $8,799...which then becomes Jennifer's Number-To-Beat if she is thinking about wagering strategy at all. Therefore...
Jennifer's optimal wager is $2,000. If either of the guys answers correctly, she can't win anyway. The only scenario in which that bites her is if either of the leaders bets really small, which I think is a low probability. In a TS (Jennifer's only realistic hope) she would then win:
Jonathan $18,100 - $12,301 = $5,799
Colby $15,200 - $6,401 = $8,799
Jennifer $10,800 - $2,000 = $8,800
As usual, the third-place player gains an advantage if the FJ clue is a real toughie, and if he/she is savvy enough to know how to take advantage. Of course in this game none of the three seemed to have ever considered wagering strategy. This was a truly sad end-game.