Monday, January 16, 2023 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

[DavidRosen]

Poorly-pinned FJ! IMO. Contestants are going to think of general objects & not a specific brand, as Katie showed.
Puzzled at the fellas looking at the financial sector.
Knew cars were around, so I guessed airplanes.

The New York Times (page C4) showed a category of "Business & Industry", and a clue of "This was first sold..."

To me, this is an acknowledgment that the show knew in hindsight that the clue was poorly pinned and attempted to rectify it for the Times.

I don't think it's a matter of poorly pinned, more like "hard to solve". The new clue is not any more pinned, as far as I can see, but as I mentioned in my prior post I think the changes could help people figure it out. As far as pinned, there may have been some other item available for sale starting in 1908 for $850 but I can't think of anything plausible. The only thing most people buy that costs more than a car is a house.

"An all-event pass to the London Olympics", was the best hypothetical alternate guess I could come up with. But those could have been sold in 1907 or earlier!

Got it from The Times Clue-of-the-Day, and didn't notice the change in the actual game clue. The date and the adjusted price were enough, although I actually thought that the Model T was relatively even cheaper. Agree that the clue should have indicated that a specific item was the intended answer.

Ragesh's games illustrate how many skills it takes to be a Jeopardy Ace. A wide and deep knowledge base is not enough.

[Robert K S]

Did anyone else on the board yet mention Sears catalog kit houses? Someone brought it up on Twitter and it reminded me that that was another guess that briefly went through my mind.

Looking it up, this is a shockingly good guess, given that (a) the year of the first Sears catalog for houses matches the clue; and (b) the price range of houses in the catalog encompasses the price given in the clue. According to Wikipedia, the 44 houses offered for sale in that catalog ranged in price from $360 to $2,890. The BLS.gov inflation calculator only goes back to 1913, not 1908, but plugging in January 1913 and December 2022, that price range translates to between $10,902.75 and $87,524.83 for a Sears kit house.

1908-1909 were banner years for planes, (houses brought by) trains, and automobiles.

[opusthepenguin]

Not sure why there would be any criticism of Yogesh's wager. He bet as much as he could without letting Jimmy back in the game. Seemed like the right move to me.

He bet exactly what I expected him to bet. Her bet is the one I don’t understand.

I'm definitely on board with that puzzlement. If she was going to go low, she should've gone lower.

[danspartan]

The J calculator always assumes the player is a favorite to get the answer correct, thus goes for the maximum of the range for a particular strategy. It’s not exactly AI. It’s a pretty simple algorithm.

In the cases where we are wagering based on assuming (or needing) a difficult question then the Minimum of the range ($0) is probably optimal. We are probably taking only a couple of percent better cause we need a mistake from first.

Interesting thought on the Sears kit house. I am sitting in one right now.

[Robert K S]

Interesting thought on the Sears kit house. I am sitting in one right now.

If I had known they started in 1908, I probably would not have been able to wipe the idea from my head. $27k in today's dollars sounds about right for a kit of house materials in that time frame, when lumber was cheap and plentiful, and other house amenities were also sparse and low-cost. I had thought that the kit houses started a little later, in the nineteen-teens. It would have been easy for me to assume that the catalog initially featured only one model of home at a fixed price.

[teapot37]

Looks like the Sears kit homes had a variety of prices (due to multiple kits), from around $450 to nearly $3000. The few inflation calculators I found online only go back to 1913 but $450 in 1913 is about $13,600 today.

[Robert K S]

Looks like the Sears kit homes had a variety of prices (due to multiple kits), from around $450 to nearly $3000. The few inflation calculators I found online only go back to 1913 but $450 in 1913 is about $13,600 today.

Wikipedia had a slightly lower bottom price (see my post above) but yeah.

[davey]

I struggled through this game, never heard of either of Yogesh's DDs (guessed Whistle Mountain for the latter... ), so it was gratifying to think that I might have won from third place by getting the FJ...Once I realized that 1908 couldn't have seen the first car, I quickly adjusted to the Model T...Glad I didn't consider the Model A...!

[Newhausen]

Looks like the Sears kit homes had a variety of prices (due to multiple kits), from around $450 to nearly $3000. The few inflation calculators I found online only go back to 1913 but $450 in 1913 is about $13,600 today.

That variety of prices is exactly why it couldn't have been correct, since the whole point of the last bit was that the product was sold at one fixed price.

The kit homes were my first thought too, but $27,000 didn't sound quite high enough, so I kept searching my brain until I found the Model T about three seconds later.

Got it from The Times Clue-of-the-Day, and didn't notice the change in the actual game clue. The date and the adjusted price were enough, although I actually thought that the Model T was relatively even cheaper.

It probably was until the last year or so's high inflation.

In the cases where we are wagering based on assuming (or needing) a difficult question then the Minimum of the range ($0) is probably optimal. We are probably taking only a couple of percent better cause we need a mistake from first.

$0 and $999 (and anywhere in between) *should* have been equal in win probability, since someone has to make a really odd wager from the lead to end up anywhere in between $22,801 and $24,799. Without hindsight, I would have said the difference in win probability between those two wagers was a rounding error.

It's just one heck of a fluke that Katie *did* land there.

[LucarioSnooperVixey]

I struggled through this game, never heard of either of Yogesh's DDs

You obviously don't watch Cash Cab reruns on GSN. Both of those Daily Doubles were answers in those reruns yesterday coincidentally enough.

[da Doctah]

Two early clues in Monday's game touched on jokes I've posted in multiple places on the internet:

"My cat's name is Nature; she abhors the vacuum." and "I tried to develop an appetizer using Indian flatbread, but that was a naan starter."

[AFRET CMS]

I was thinking financial at first, too, but then the Model T dawned on me at maybe the 20 second mark. The $27,000 equivalent was the thing that pointed me in the right direction. It had to have been something substantial.

The price of the Model T actually decreased throughout its production run as the assembly process became more efficient. The initial price was $825, but it was down to $260 by 1925!

I got to the Model T fairly early, but the price helped increase confidence. I remember Ford being credited with having said something on the order of wanting the price point to be where the people who built the car could afford to buy one.

[twelvefootboy]

I went right to the Model T, or was it the Model A? I thought the A was the upgrade on the T, but that would mean the clue requires a higher level of car geekhood to solve. The Model T is much more famous and being affordable to the auto workers is a well known trope. Worrying about the Model A is overthinking, which I am usually guilty of.

The miss by Yogesh is inexplicable to me, but it had to be a long half hour of gameplay while he watched his opponents outbuzz him. Sadly, his status as a 3-day champ doesn't bode well for Second Chance candidates.

I was thinking financial at first, too, but then the Model T dawned on me at maybe the 20 second mark. The $27,000 equivalent was the thing that pointed me in the right direction. It had to have been something substantial.

The price of the Model T actually decreased throughout its production run as the assembly process became more efficient. The initial price was $825, but it was down to $260 by 1925!

Thanks for the price info. I remembered about $300 for the price. With Henry Ford paying (white people at least) $5/day, that is only 3 months pay. BUT - before the hand wringing about "they don't build them like they used to" starts, I think this exact car could be built for under $5K today (maybe with less asbestosis, lol). This is assuming all the third world exploitations, etc.. There are modern tractors of similar weight that are under $12K.

[bibliophage]

I didn't have much confidence in my response for FJ, but it turned out to be right. I didn't know the exact year the Model T was introduced, but it seemed like 1908 was about the right time period. I went through a lot of other automotive possibilities but rejected them all: Stanley Steamer, Mercedes Benz, electric car, hybrid car. I also thought of air conditioners but didn't have time enough to change my answer. All of these things, I later learned, predated the Model T. I agree the clue was badly pinned and poorly worded. If Sears kit homes had crossed my mind, I'm pretty sure I would have changed my response to that.

I have a nitpick about the clue on "the equation for the circumference of a circle." Yogesh's response of "two pi r" is not an equation, it's a mathematical term. The correct response is "What is C equals two pi r?"

[Robert K S]

I have a nitpick about the clue on "the equation for the circumference of a circle." Yogesh's response of "two pi r" is not an equation, it's a mathematical term. The correct response is "What is C equals two pi r?"

That is an interesting nitpick. It collides, somewhat irresolvably, with the rule that a response is not required to repeat any information given in the clue.

[Robert K S]

The price of the Model T actually decreased throughout its production run as the assembly process became more efficient. The initial price was $825, but it was down to $260 by 1925!

Imagine buying a car, only to have the price drop 20% overnight. Those early Model T buyers must have been pissed. Good thing nothing like that happens anymore.

Also good that carmakers have come up with better names for cars than just letters of the alphabet.

[This Is Kirk!]

I went right to the Model T, or was it the Model A? I thought the A was the upgrade on the T, but that would mean the clue requires a higher level of car geekhood to solve. The Model T is much more famous and being affordable to the auto workers is a well known trope. Worrying about the Model A is overthinking, which I am usually guilty of.

Just for the record, when Ford was selling the Model T that was the only model they sold. The Model A was the replacement for the Model T and it was first produced in 1927. Ford actually kept selling the Model T for a few years too long. By the mid 1920s the Model T was losing lots of market share due to much better options being sold by GM and others. Bottom line is any question about a Ford produced in the early 20th Century is going to be about the Model T.

[Robert K S]

For those thinking Katie overwagered if her intent was the low wager, is $800 or less the value you would have expected? Above someone mentioned that her wager allowed the possibility that Yogesh could wager $0, but it's far worse than that, I think: the overwager leaves open the possibility that Yogesh will make the expected wager of $999 and get Final right, which results in an unnecessary L for the FJ! leader on the Final R/W outcome grid. A wager of $800 or less from first gives the DJ! leader a lock game so long as Yogesh wagers as expected.

[opusthepenguin]

For those thinking Katie overwagered if her intent was the low wager, is $800 or less the value you would have expected? Above someone mentioned that her wager allowed the possibility that Yogesh could wager $0, but it's far worse than that, I think: the overwager leaves open the possibility that Yogesh will make the expected wager of $999 and get Final right, which results in an unnecessary L for the FJ! leader on the Final R/W outcome grid. A wager of $800 or less from first gives the DJ! leader a lock game so long as Yogesh wagers as expected.

I think so, but my eyes always glaze over when I try to follow someone else's wagering reasoning. I just can't keep all the numbers in my head. So let me put the numbers in front of me and think through your steps:

Yogesh Raut: 23800-999=22801
Jimmy Davoren: 11400-11400=0
Katie Palumbo: 25600-2500=23100

Yep, observation 1 is that she drops down below Yogesh's current score. He could've won on a $0 bet. But wait, as you say, it gets worse. Observation 2 says Yogesh's $999 wager wasn't a sure thing, but it was a strong possibility. Jimmy doubles to 22800 so Yogesh doesn't want to drop below that. With a $999 wager, a get puts Yogesh up to 24799. No reason for Katie to drop below that either. $800 or less will keep her above him even if he gets it right. So I agree with you down the line: ≤$800 is the right wager if she wants to go small. I'd respect the heck out of a wager like that and would have enjoyed seeing it pay off.

[opusthepenguin]

I have a nitpick about the clue on "the equation for the circumference of a circle." Yogesh's response of "two pi r" is not an equation, it's a mathematical term. The correct response is "What is C equals two pi r?"

I love this nitpick.